As for the Yankees’ ability to draw walks vs. Pavano’s ability to limit them: I don’t know how to produce numbers to back up this claim, but from what I’ve seen this year, the Yankees aren’t afraid to swing early in the count against guys they know are throwing strikes. They’ll try to work the count early but if Pavano is in the strike zone the second and third times through the lineup will feature shorter AB’s and lots of balls in play, which would seem to favor they Yankees. They draw a lot of walks, but can produce runs without them when need be. 50+% of BIP being handled by Twins outfielders sounds like some runs to me.
Also- Gardenhire wanted to split up the lefties in his rotation, which is why Pavano is starting Game 2 and Liriano started Game 1. However, Pavano seems much better suited for a potential Game 4 short-rest start considering Liriano’s workload this year and past fragility. Isn’t having a solid starter (even one going on short rest) in a potential elimination game more important than preventing the other team from facing a lefty starter two games in a row? Is there any way to figure out whether teams have hit better than they should when facing a lefty for a second consecutive day? I don’t see what difference it could make, and I guess Joe Girardi doesn’t either.
I think that the theory was that Liriano is bette than Pavano (no debate there) but Sabathia is nasty. Instead of pitching them both on short rest, which would be fine for Pavano but awful for Lirino, pitch Liriano twice on regular rest.
I think that this actually makes the most sense. A rested Liriano + Blackburn is better than a short rest Pavano + short rest Liriano. Why? CC Sabathia is nasty, and the Twins will have trouble scoring enough runs against him. It will be far to their advantage to place a strong Liriano in a game 5 against a short-rest and hurt Petite than risk it on a short-rest Liriano when a short-rest Pavano can’t match Sabathia anyway.
I agree. I think a three man rotation of Pavano, Liriano, Duensing, short rest Pavano, full rest Liriano is WAY better than Liriano, Pavano, Duensing, Blackburn, extra rest Liriano.
But yeah, you gotta split up the lefties!
Comment by Steven Ellingson — October 7, 2010 @ 4:07 pm
it’s hard to call this series. I can never quite say either of these teams are out. the twins have played good baseball all year long, and they have some solid pitchers. the yankees lineup has the ability to hit anyone, but their rotation outside of CC is a little shaky. if they had lost game 1, I would have thought the yanks were all but done for. but they won it, so If they can win behind CC, they can take the series as CC will start game 4 as well. they only need to win one game he does not start to win the series. it’s going to come down to the wire!
Magically, TBS pitch tracker has been turned off late in the game. Called Strike 3 to Valencia was high and 6 inches outside. Strike 3 to Berkman is, of course, called a ball, followed by the game turning double.
Then why was it a ball to Berkman, and a strike to Valencia? Both games, the game has turned on the home plate umpire favoring the Yankees. First the different zone for Liriano vs Sabathia, then tonight more of the same.
Oddly enough NotDave didn’t seem to be complaining when the 1-0 pitch in the same AB was generously called a strike (it was 4-6″ off he plate if you believe the same pitchtrax which showed the 2-2 pitch as a strike). In fact Pavano was getting that ball called a strike all night long
The ump was clearly calling the right side of the plate all night long (from the pitcher’s view)
Would you be complaining had Thome driven in that free baserunner in the ninth in game one when the EXTRA umpire, added specifically for outfield calls, blew a call? Blew the exact type of call that he was placed there for?
The umpiring has been atrocious. Again. Just don’t think that all the benefit is on the NY side.