FanGraphs Baseball

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  1. It’s funny, I always get the years right on the median but undercut the yearly salary by about 20%.

    Comment by N00bious — October 12, 2010 @ 11:14 am

  2. Question: is there going to be a round-up at the end of the offseason comparing the crowdsourcing results vs. what the players actually signed for?

    Comment by Brandon — October 12, 2010 @ 12:34 pm

  3. Yep. One of the points behind this series is to find out just how good the crowd is at estimating what players will actually get.

    Comment by Dave Cameron — October 12, 2010 @ 12:41 pm

  4. If we the people are close enough, do we all get a free subsciption to the Bonus Blog?

    Comment by Dan Pitrowiski — October 12, 2010 @ 1:23 pm

  5. I do this too. I think it’s because I don’t trust Pavano’s career numbers or a 42 year old Manny Ramirez the same way a real GM would, but maybe that’s just me.

    Comment by grady — October 12, 2010 @ 2:09 pm

  6. Or you could always just look under the floor mats in your car for the $7.95 it costs for access to the Bonus Blog. Either way.

    Comment by theperfectgame — October 12, 2010 @ 2:56 pm

  7. I wouldn’t EVER give him anything more than a one year contract with a vesting option. Does nobody remember how badly he quit on his team the last time he got guaranteed years?

    Comment by JimNYC — October 12, 2010 @ 3:55 pm

  8. I like the Pineiro comparison but Pavano will be 3.5 years older at the time of his free agency.

    Pineiro signed 2 years heading into the season at age 31. Pavano will be 35 heading into next season.

    I could have mangled the math, but their is an age difference

    Comment by tom — October 12, 2010 @ 3:57 pm

  9. Dan Pitrowiski: No, But you get an interview with Jeff Wilpon!

    Comment by jwb — October 12, 2010 @ 4:49 pm

  10. I have a hunch that these crowdsource results will almost all result in medians and means that come in significantly (i.e., a few million plus) below the final value that the player receives.

    All it takes is one irrational player on the FA market to give these each of these guys a contract that significantly outpaces the results we’re getting here.

    “The length of the deal seems to be nearly a lock.” Really? So, if the Nationals are told, point-blank, that every other team is offering 2-3 years, and if they offer 4/32-36M they can have him, and this is their only chance at getting a quasi-”front line SP” that their seeking this offseason…that scenario couldn’t possibly happen? That’s sort of what the summary of this post implies.

    I’m not saying that hypothetical 4 year, $32-$36M Pavano deal is smart. I’m saying that too many voters in these crowd source results are thinking about what they personally value the player at, or what THEY personally think the player is worth, rather than what one potentially desperate and irrational actor out of 30 GMs would offer (in an attempt to win now and save their jobs).

    Comment by Jacob Jackson — October 12, 2010 @ 6:10 pm

  11. That’s fine, but isn’t the whole point of the exercise basically finding out if your hunch is right? We’ll see when the dust settles how we did as a group, whether we universally underestimated length and/or dollars like you suppose, or whether there were particular skillsets or intangibles that we under/overvalued, or whether we had a pretty good idea after all. To me at least, that’s what makes the feature so interesting.

    Comment by theperfectgame — October 12, 2010 @ 8:04 pm

  12. Everyone guess the mass of this cow in Mo Vaughns units.

    http://www.crossingwallstreet.com/expensive-cow.jpg

    I’ll start. 0.6.

    Ready, go.

    Comment by CrowdSourcingisFUN — October 13, 2010 @ 12:40 am

  13. How do you know the thought process of the other voters again?

    Comment by TK — October 13, 2010 @ 2:36 pm

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