FanGraphs Baseball

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  1. As long as they lose, I don’t care who they start.

    Comment by odbsol — October 18, 2010 @ 12:03 pm

  2. “If Burnett blows up and the Rangers find themselves down 3-1 on Wednesday, expect that decision to be the one that get second guessed all winter.”

    That Rangers should be Yankees, no?

    Comment by Holier — October 18, 2010 @ 12:05 pm

  3. One thing that wasn’t mentioned – if they try to piece together a bullpen game, AJ Burnett would also be a part of the bullpen. Maybe this is no different than AJ going two innings and the bullpen taking over from there, but wouldn’t he play up as well if he knew he was only going out there for forty pitches?

    Comment by Kevin S. — October 18, 2010 @ 12:13 pm

  4. “Rather than having a disadvantage on the mound in both Game 3 and Game 4,…”

    Is Burnett really an underdog against Tommy Hunter? No offense to Hunter, but he sucks. Burnett at least has upside potential.

    Comment by DCHASE — October 18, 2010 @ 12:24 pm

  5. Well, I think Yanks have to get in today’s game, not tomorrow.
    I hope Yankees can read Lee and all his repertory, just one run or two runs. I don’t know. But Pettite has to take in mind that he has to do the job. Just get near and everything could success for Yanks. Tomorrow is another day. Maybe today we can get 2-1 and tomorrow AJ shut up our mouths and get the series 3-1.

    It’s baseball, everything could happen…..

    Comment by Papilonger — October 18, 2010 @ 12:33 pm

  6. So the Yankees should burn up their long men in a series where their aces have had trouble getting through the fourth inning.

    Yes. Excellent. Good analysis Dave.

    Comment by Steve — October 18, 2010 @ 12:45 pm

  7. Also they should use several pitchers not on the post season roster.

    Comment by regfairfield — October 18, 2010 @ 12:57 pm

  8. Consolodating your disadvantage is interesting from a fan’s point of view… but I don’t think any player or any manager would ever do it. The players and managers believe they can win any game (as well they should). In some ways, throwing your weakest pitcher against the opposing team’s strongest pitcher amounts to waving the white flag on that game before it’s even started.

    Comment by Hans — October 18, 2010 @ 12:58 pm

  9. Neither Nova nor Ring are on the roster, and for very good reason. This was a super terrible post, which says something given the usual quality of the “analysis” here.

    Comment by Gratia — October 18, 2010 @ 12:58 pm

  10. The best solution seems obvious to me:

    Sabathia in game 4 on short rest
    Burnett in game 5
    Hughes in game 6 on full rest
    Sabathia in game 7 on short rest with a very quick hook. Pettitte relieves CC if there are any command issues like in game 1.

    Comment by Drew — October 18, 2010 @ 12:59 pm

  11. from the way i see see it Cc should start on short rest if they lose. AJ vs hunter is a like a flip of a coin where both suck and it’ll be on the offenses to outscore each other. While CC vs hunter will heavily favor the yanks and potenially bring the series back to a 2-2 tie.

    Comment by DT — October 18, 2010 @ 1:01 pm

  12. AJ on a short leash in Game 4 is fine. Yanks should score plenty off Hunter so I’m fine risking Bad AJ showing up as long as Girardi is quick to hook. Hopefully Pettitte goes atleast 6 tonight so the middle relief is rested.

    Comment by Mister Delaware — October 18, 2010 @ 1:05 pm

  13. what makes this post suck the most, dave some of the “bullpen game” guys you listed aren’t even on the 25 man roster for the ALCS.

    open a browser first, look at the roster, then try again.

    Comment by jay destro — October 18, 2010 @ 1:14 pm

  14. I’m a Rangers fan, and even I rolled my eyes with this.

    Comment by TX Bobby — October 18, 2010 @ 1:14 pm

  15. This is literally something you would hear on a sports radio talk show, roster inaccuracies and all. I expect more out of Fangraphs, but maybe I should change that.

    Comment by Steve — October 18, 2010 @ 1:16 pm

  16. oh yeah, #6org too

    Comment by jay destro — October 18, 2010 @ 1:21 pm

  17. You should. I watched every game Hunter pitched this year, and I can tell you he’s adequate at best, shitty at worst.

    Dave says “Rather than having a disadvantage on the mound in both Game 3 and Game 4″….. and I’m like whaaaaat?

    Using this very site’s metrics, Hunter has a higher FIP than AJ, AND AJ is pitching at home. So in fact, the pitcher with more postseason experience, a lower FIP, and pitching at home is somehow at a “disadvantage”.

    ::sigh:: …… The Fangraphs decline continues….

    Comment by TX Bobby — October 18, 2010 @ 1:24 pm

  18. Decline? Seems a bit harsh to me. Even if the roster inaccuracies are there, the point is the same. Replace Nova with Moseley and Ring with Mitre and the effect of the article is the same.

    Comment by Drew — October 18, 2010 @ 1:33 pm

  19. It’s still a terrible point even with the right names.

    Comment by regfairfield — October 18, 2010 @ 1:45 pm

  20. But Pettite has to take in mind that he has to do the job

    As oppossed to pitchers that take the mound in the playoffs thinking it isn’t the most important game of the season?

    Seriously.

    No one on the field is more aware of the game’s importance or the ramifications of failure than the starting pitcher.

    Comment by CircleChange11 — October 18, 2010 @ 1:53 pm

  21. But Pettite has to take in mind that he has to do the job

    As oppossed to pitchers that take the mound in the playoffs thinking it isn’t the most important game of the season?

    Seriously.

    No one on the field is more aware of the game’s importance or the ramifications of failure than the starting pitcher.

    Comment by CircleChange11 — October 18, 2010 @ 1:54 pm

  22. Yes, decline. Even ignoring the roster inaccuries (which honestly shouldn’t be), I think Fangraphs lately just always says something out of left field just to be different. This seems like one of those times.

    Comment by TX Bobby — October 18, 2010 @ 2:01 pm

  23. The Burnett start is essentially a bullpen start, if you assume Girardi will have a quick hook and won’t let him gascan the game away if he is awful early

    The only difference is the upside that he does somehow have a game like Game 2 of the 09 WS and can go 7 shutdown innings

    Comment by AB — October 18, 2010 @ 2:12 pm

  24. I disagree. There is ample evidence that pitchers are better in relief. If Burnett knew he only had to go through the order once he would probably be a little more effective, as would Moseley, Chambelain, Robertson, etc.

    Comment by Drew — October 18, 2010 @ 2:13 pm

  25. We have Tommy Hunter pitching on the road against the best offense in baseball. That’s the upside for the Yankees.

    Comment by TX Bobby — October 18, 2010 @ 2:14 pm

  26. How would Burnett knowing he only had to go through the order once help him with the problems he’s had this year, which has a lot to do with his command?

    I don’t think he would be able to get his curve over for strikes just because he came out of the pen or was only facing each batter once in the game.

    Comment by leo — October 18, 2010 @ 4:58 pm

  27. Bullpen game? The dumbest idea ever. Which is the norm at fangraphs

    Comment by Kab — October 18, 2010 @ 5:46 pm

  28. And yet here you are, reading (or having someone read it to you) and commenting!

    Comment by chuckb — October 18, 2010 @ 5:55 pm

  29. The other problem with a bullpen game is you need four or five guys to all be good on the same night. If just one of them is off he can blow the whole game for you. If someone gets into trouble the manager has fewer options to bail him out with. It’s almost like hoping to win a parlay bet.

    Comment by MikeS — October 18, 2010 @ 8:10 pm

  30. I don’t see how Burnett could pitch much worse than Hughes or Sabathia did in Games 1 and 2. With the very hittable Tommy Hunter going for the Rangers, the Yankees have a chance to out-slug the Rangers in this one. Surely both starters will be on short leashes. It is pathetic that Burnett is only in the second year of his $80-or-so-million deal, yet can scarcely be trusted to start a single game in the playoffs.

    Comment by WY — October 18, 2010 @ 11:44 pm

  31. If they’re not going to proofread before publishing, they should at least use the strikethrough thingy to show that they fixed a mistake rather than trying to act like there wasn’t one there in the first place.

    Comment by WY — October 18, 2010 @ 11:46 pm

  32. Even if the plan is to have a bullpen day, which I can’t see the Yankees doing under any circumstances, why not start Burnett and just have a really, really short leash?

    Given K rates and the like, he’s a better bet than your back of the pen guys to get through an inning or two.

    Comment by Mark — October 19, 2010 @ 11:38 am

  33. Burnett will pitch 7.1 innings, striking out 9 and walking 1, but still lose 1-0.
    He will give up a bloop triple to Bengie Molina who will score on a suicide squeeze.
    Tommy Hunter will pitch 8.0 innings striking out 2, walking 7 and give up 6 hits.

    It will be awesome.

    Comment by d240z71 — October 19, 2010 @ 2:20 pm

  34. Bill James made this point years ago. Not sure if he was talking about LaRussa or someone else, but he did say something about using a bunch of relievers makes it more likely you’ll run into one that just doesn’t have it on a given night.

    Comment by wobatus — October 19, 2010 @ 2:32 pm

  35. Why, exactly? Need proof of their error forever to feel better about picking the nits?

    Comment by Jason B — October 19, 2010 @ 10:18 pm

  36. EXACTLY!

    Comment by Jason B — October 19, 2010 @ 10:22 pm

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