FanGraphs Baseball


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  1. Nice piece Pat.

    Comment by mickeykoke — October 18, 2010 @ 1:05 pm

  2. Tejada played 3B with Baltimore

    Comment by delv — October 18, 2010 @ 2:16 pm

  3. “Branyan hit .215/.319/.483 for the Mariners, giving the lineup some much-needed pop”

    How sad is it that a player who hit .215 gave a lineup much needed pop? That is the 2010 Seattle Mariners summed perfectly.

    Comment by pm — October 18, 2010 @ 2:50 pm

  4. DH Jim Thome
    Free Agent Age 39
    Signed by Minnesota Twins for deal worth $1.6M (after incentives)
    2009 WAR 1.6
    2010 WAR 3.6

    However, the 2009 WAR is misleading as he actually had a 1.7 WAR with the White Sox before being traded to the Dodgers. Darn NL with no DH for our dear Jim Thome!

    Comment by TFINY — October 18, 2010 @ 2:51 pm

  5. “pop” means SLG which is pretty good.

    It’s even better considering that his AVG was so every time he touched the ball it went places.

    Comment by TFINY — October 18, 2010 @ 2:52 pm

  6. i wonder if the old guy discount has to do with risk premiums. there’s probably greater downside risk with an old guy (production might fall off a cliff, see, e.g., garrett atkins), but less upside risk. so even if an old guy’s expected WAR value is, say 2.5, it might make sense to value him only as a 1.5 win player to help mitigate the downside risk. there’s also probably greater injury risk with older players, so the number of expected games would need to be projected at a lower figure.

    Comment by Dudley — October 18, 2010 @ 3:14 pm

  7. nice piece. just curious…why are you using that particular dollar per WAR value? i thought that was done for each season?

    Comment by Josh C — October 18, 2010 @ 5:11 pm

  8. pat wrote: “Branyan finished at just 0.9 WAR in Seattle in 57 games. ”
    Isn’t 1 WAR in 1/3 of a season good performance?

    Comment by brendan — October 18, 2010 @ 6:19 pm

  9. Safeco is a very poor place to hit.

    Comment by guest — October 18, 2010 @ 7:29 pm

  10. Here’s my theory on Branyan. He’s much less valuable than what his overall numbers suggest. He can’t hit pitches that are even slightly elevated. Most of the damage he does is in games that are out of reach one way or the other, especially when his team is already signficantly ahead, where pitchers are more concerned with just getting the ball over the plate than anything else. When runners are on, he’s pitched more carefully and is effectively neutralized. His RISP numbers this year are .162/.268/.343 , runners on .188/.282/.406 … nobody on, he’s .277/.358/.553 … all of his clutch stats are terrible. I think this has less to do with Branyan and more to do with the way he’s pitched in those different scenarios. As long as a pitcher doesn’t give him something low and middle-in, they have nothing to worry about

    Comment by isavage — October 18, 2010 @ 7:53 pm

  11. Signing an older player also doesn’t let you have a young player developing or gaining MLB experience, so it has to be a fit. I think the motivation you provide to players in the minors if you are always trying to fill holes through your own farm system is grossly underrated. I think that has been one of the Twins greatest strengths.

    Comment by brentinKorea — October 18, 2010 @ 9:07 pm

  12. One more, from the pitching side.

    Livan Hernandez
    Free Agent signed by Washington Nationals
    Age “35″ $900K, 1 year
    2009 WAR 1.6 (Fng) / 0.2 (B-R)
    2010 WAR 3.0 (Fng) / 3.4 (B-R)

    $12MM value for $900K. Looks like he will become the Nationals Tim Wakefield, except cheaper, as is the Nats wont.

    Comment by JCA — October 18, 2010 @ 9:50 pm

  13. .268 ISO is pretty damn good pop

    Comment by Anon — October 19, 2010 @ 12:11 am

  14. Branyan career line: .234/.330/.490

    RISP: .210/.341/.441

    Comment by Anon — October 19, 2010 @ 12:14 am

  15. Good research though there’s no stat for impact of experience and veteran leadership on success of team and younger players, including lasting lessons. There are many things that can’t be measured by WAR and dollars, and veteran impact is one of them.

    Comment by LongTimeFan — October 20, 2010 @ 12:27 am

  16. When did Garrett Atkins get old?

    You mean Garrett Anderson??

    Comment by rick11p — October 20, 2010 @ 1:10 am

  17. As far as I can tell Damon played the field in ~40 games. Using UZR (for which a season’s worth of data is sometimes deemed insufficient) is kind of irrelevant if you ask me.

    Comment by Pope — October 20, 2010 @ 6:11 am

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