FanGraphs Baseball

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  1. Counterpoint: He’s AJ Burnett.

    Comment by Chops — October 19, 2010 @ 1:09 pm

  2. 9.4% instead of 94%.

    Also, what is the protocol about pointing out typos? I generally point out typos when they are numbers, and ignore them when they are a part of a word. What do you (author) and you (readers) prefer?

    Comment by TFINY — October 19, 2010 @ 1:14 pm

  3. Sabathia could probably pitch out of the bullpen in Game 7 for a few innings if he pitched Game 5, right?

    Comment by bill — October 19, 2010 @ 1:20 pm

  4. “How would the Yankees manage the rotation if they went with Sabathia on three days’ rest? That would push Burnett to Game 5, Phil Hughes to Game 6, and then either Andy Pettitte on normal rest or Sabathia on short rest in Game 7.”

    Why would you think about pitching Hughes in Texas again? Why not use him for a few innings on short rest in game 5 with Burnett? Petitte on short rest in game 6 is much better option than Hughes, who was lit up in Game 2. At least IMHO.

    Comment by Chris Fiorentino — October 19, 2010 @ 1:46 pm

  5. I’m going to assume most (if not all) of the fangraph writers happen to be more logical than sensible (more math than liberal arts… is the jest of it). If numbers have errors, it’s cool, and it’s easily corrected. For me words are almost always glanced over and completed in your mind anyways (spelling only matters so much). Hell, I do the same for words in Japanese.

    Comment by My echo and bunnymen — October 19, 2010 @ 1:58 pm

  6. “If we’ve learned anything from the endless previews for each playoff game, it’s that there is no way to get a good idea of what will happen based on past performance.”

    So start Burnett.

    Comment by MichaelCoughlin — October 19, 2010 @ 2:08 pm

  7. Chops says:
    October 19, 2010 at 1:09 pm

    Counterpoint: He’s AJ Burnett.

    point well made

    Comment by ansburry — October 19, 2010 @ 2:36 pm

  8. looking at pitch values, burnett had one of the worst fastballs in MLB last season, but he still threw it almost 70% of the time. also according to pitch values, hamilton, cruz, and young absolutely destroy fastballs. look for things to get ugly with the middle of the texas lineup . . .

    Comment by Dudley — October 19, 2010 @ 2:47 pm

  9. “But being down 3-2 is quite different than being down 3-1.”

    Didn’t someone make the argument in one of the podcasts that the order of the starters shouldn’t matter (the topic at the time was Cliff Lee, but the idea is the same)? Being down 3-2 is different than being down 3-1 because you’ve played one more game. If you’re starting at 2-1, and you’ve got Sabathia and Burnett going in some order, don’t you have the same odds of reaching 3-2?

    The most convincing arguments for setting the order of the starters in this case seems to be 1) pitch Sabathia in game 4 so that he can pitch in some capacity in game 7 or 2) pitch Burnett against Hunter to minimize the disparity in the SP matchups. I don’t buy that the order matters unless it means that you’ll be eliminated before your better SPs have a chance to start as many games as possible. This is not the case in this situation.

    Comment by Erik — October 19, 2010 @ 3:11 pm

  10. Read my blog over at Pinstripe Alley:

    http://www.pinstripealley.com/2010/10/12/1746880/lets-debunk-myths-about-short-rest

    You need a LARGE sample of short rest starts to see what kind of impact this has on a pitchers performance, so I looked at all of them since 1995. The difference isn’t that big:

    Short Rest FIP – 4.71 Full Rest FIP – 4.42
    Short Rest K/9 – 6.17 Full Rest K/9 – 6.63
    Short Rest BB/9 – 3.43 Full Rest BB/9 – 3.42

    Looking at the stats alone, the difference isn’t that big – roughly 5-7%. Is 93-95% of CC Sabathia better than 100% of AJ Burnett? Of course it is.

    Comment by Mike — October 19, 2010 @ 3:56 pm

  11. Also its pretty clear that some pitchers are able to take the abuse and some aren’t. Its a more personalized issue then one that can be made on the weight of such general evidence. But I would argue that this supports your conclusion, CC is better prepared to win game 4 then AJ. Its just a question of what do you do in games 5-6-7

    Comment by Cliff Lee's Changeup — October 19, 2010 @ 5:23 pm

  12. I think you’ve got to go with the comfortbility factor.

    Comment by Bronnt — October 19, 2010 @ 5:56 pm

  13. Most important counterpoint: The umpires will ensure the Yankees win this important game, just as they did in game 1 and 2 of the ALDS. Cano’s “home run”…please.

    Comment by NotDave — October 19, 2010 @ 8:48 pm

  14. *yawn*

    Comment by Not David — October 19, 2010 @ 9:35 pm

  15. The debate to pitch AJ or CC seems to be a straw man to me. The main question was whether AJ should have been used in game 3 and saving Pettitte for a game in which his odds of winning are higher. Instead of conceding game 3 and hoping for a miracle, they tried to win it and failed, and then were left to hope for a miracle that AJ would pitch better than his season average numbers in game 4, which he did until Girardi pulled a Grady Little imitation.

    CC did not really pitch well in game 1, so nobody can say how pitching on 3 days rest would effect him, especially as he had an extended bullpen session to work on some issues.

    Comment by pft — October 20, 2010 @ 1:29 am

  16. i agree. i think that giving up game 3 by pitching burnett was preferable than wasting pettitte and giving up both games 3 and 4 by pitching burnett then. sure they always have a shot with pettitte and he pitched well, but against lee they had no chance it seemed from the very beginning. then they pitch burnett which is just asking for a loss, so why not pitch him in a game that they are likely to lose anyways? then pettitte can win them game 4 (which if you swap out pettitte’s start for burnett’s, would make the yankees winners). of couse the fallacy of predetermined results come in here, but still pettitte>burnett and lee>pettitte and pettitte>hunter and hunter>burnett. so then why not lose burnett vs lee and win pettite vs hunter? instead they just conceded both…

    Comment by phoenix — October 20, 2010 @ 1:27 pm

  17. maybe this is stupid but how about this for a series rotation?

    game one: sabathia vs wilson
    game two: pettitte vs lewis
    game three: burnett vs lee
    game four: sabathia vs hunter
    game five: hughes vs wilson
    game six: pettitte vs lewis
    game seven: sabathia vs lee

    from the yankees standpoint it has to look better than what they did. i know its a moot point now, but what does anyone else think about this set up? games 1 and 4 definitely give advantage to the yanks, and they give up game 3, but games 2, 5, and 6 seem even enough or favor the yanks, and then you get sabathia in game 7. its two (semi)guaranteed wins against one (semi)guaranteed loss with 4 that can go either way. has to be better than giving up (semi)guaranteed losses in games 3, 4, and 7 right?

    Comment by phoenix — October 20, 2010 @ 4:09 pm

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