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  1. This is an odd system, at least based on the way you describe it. Some of these guys have the ability to be superstars. All of these guys have the ability to suck really bad.

    I think I prefer the ceilings of prospects 3-7 enough to bump Nieuhwenhuis behind all of them.

    Comment by Kenny — November 16, 2010 @ 11:21 am

  2. Somewhat OT, but again with the Edwin Encarnacion patience myth? He’s posted a career minor league OBP of .354 in 658 games. Maybe we can let Rodriguez play a few more games at meaningful levels before we decide that he has “much” more patience?

    Comment by blackout — November 16, 2010 @ 11:35 am

  3. The reason for this is that Omar had his hands tied with a ridiculous commitment to paying slot. MInaya did an amazing job with the farm given this absurd disadvantage.

    The team will now pay over slot with the new regime. Between injuries, draft limitations, the media and the lack of accurate analysis in the public domain, Omar never had a chance.

    Comment by this guy — November 16, 2010 @ 11:39 am

  4. I would say the reason is more that they “graduated” Ike Davis, Jonathon Niese, Jenrry Mejia, and Ruben Tejada from the farm system in the past year.

    And what’s underneath them right now is a lot of teenagers and/or players with 1 year or less of pro baseball under their belt who have tremendous potential, but lots of risk as well.

    With that said though, Lucas Duda should have made the Top 10, IMO, given what he did last season. Darrell Ceciliani is someone to keep an eye on as well.

    Comment by Derek — November 16, 2010 @ 11:49 am

  5. Duda’s upside is as a bench/role player. No place on a top 10 list.

    Comment by this guy — November 16, 2010 @ 12:05 pm

  6. Love the list, only thing I’d pick with: I know Havens’ health is an issue, but I think I’d put his peak WAR higher than +3.5, but that’s just semantics I suppose.

    Carson is the only one I can’t agree on here. Hes got good velocity from a lefty, sure, but he lacks quality secondary pitches, which makes me believe his future is in the bullpen. Keith Law went as far as to call him a non-prospect a few weeks ago too, for whatever that is worth.

    Comment by nmigliore — November 16, 2010 @ 12:32 pm

  7. OBP does not equal patience. Cite BB% or IsoD.

    That gripe aside, you look to be right. Encarnacion’s career BB% in the minors is higher than Rodriguez’s. So, unless he has some other information we don’t know about, that comment looks to be off base.

    Comment by Steven Ellingson — November 16, 2010 @ 12:46 pm

  8. When did this info on them paying overslot under the Alderson come out? I don’t recall reading anything about it.

    Comment by B — November 16, 2010 @ 12:51 pm

  9. With Carson, I see him as a young lefty with a solid fastball and good sink. His secondary pitches need work, but he’s still young. He definitely has a chance to end up as a middle reliever but I liked him a little more than the other players that I had in play in the 11-15 range. 2011 will be a big year for him.

    Comment by Marc Hulet — November 16, 2010 @ 1:00 pm

  10. If Vaughn is on the list, Ceciliani should be too. Ceciliani broke a ton of records in the same league and plays CF. Cohoon and Ratliff could also be on here, Ratliff slugged .562 in AA last year.

    Comment by Dave G — November 16, 2010 @ 1:11 pm

  11. Alderson on going over slot here: http://www.metsminorleagueblog.com/2010/11/12/sandy-alderson-on-going-over-slot-in-the-draft-and-defensive-metrics/

    Comment by 4816 — November 16, 2010 @ 1:28 pm

  12. Ratliff has had huge K rates everywhere he’s played and hasn’t ever really hit as well as he did in his half season at AA. That performance needs to be put into proper context, much like Duda’s explosion this year.

    Comment by Tony_J — November 16, 2010 @ 1:37 pm

  13. “Between injuries, draft limitations, the media and the lack of accurate analysis in the public domain, Omar never had a chance.”

    Signing Oliver Perez 3/36, Frankie to essentially 4/55, giving up draft picks for Moises Alou, depending on completely washed out veterans, re-signing mota, marlon anderson, and Valentin, and lastly giving Schoenweis a multi-year deal…rushing Martinez and Mejia through the system, actually paying for GMJ etc. Omar was a pretty bad GM, that got lucky one year with a miracle season from Jose Valentin and career years from Wright, Reyes, Beltran and I can keep going. The pythag from 06 wasn’t even that good. For having the highest payroll in the NL for a buncha years Omar did a real bad job. His best moves were Beltran, and locking up Wright and Reyes when they were young and about to head to arb. His best attribute was finding low-risk signings like Dickey, 06 Valentin, El Duque Tak2. The fact that he brought many of these guys back on multi-year deals was the flip-side to these good moves.

    Comment by MetsKnicksRutgers — November 16, 2010 @ 2:22 pm

  14. Ceciliani was very close to making the list. The other two mentioned were not considered. Duda wasn’t a consideration for the Top 10, either.

    Comment by Marc Hulet — November 16, 2010 @ 2:45 pm

  15. I know Matt Harvey was a first round pick, but he has “Eddie Kunz” potential written all over him. Yes, he could work out, but does it make sense to put Fernando below him when Fernando is only 1 year older and is already in AAA? Harvey hasn’t played pro ball yet. I’ll take an injury-prone YOUNG kid with advanced skills over a complete unknown any day.

    Comment by Dave I — November 16, 2010 @ 3:08 pm

  16. “Duda’s upside is as a bench/role player. No place on a top 10 list.”

    .999 OPS in Buffalo (AAA) as a 24 year old made me take notice. Sure, he’s a little older then you’d like, but the only difference between this year and previous years is that it seems he’s added more power to his game.

    I’d rather have him going forward then someone like Carson, who comfortably projects as a LOOGY given his lack of secondary offerings. Just my take though.

    Comment by Derek — November 16, 2010 @ 4:27 pm

  17. How is Harvey even remotely similar to Kunz? The only similarity is that both have a sinker. Kunz was a reliever in college, Harvey was a starter. Kunz was a supplemental pick, Harvey was top 10.

    Comment by supermets — November 16, 2010 @ 4:34 pm

  18. I realize he has no business being on a top 10 list, but I definitely like Jeurys Familia going forward. He has some serious swing-and-miss offerings and, barring any type of career threatening injury, will at least be a solid reliever in the majors.

    Comment by SF 55 for life — November 16, 2010 @ 5:57 pm

  19. Wrt Duda, he broke his wrist in college, I believe, and it took a couple of years to get his power stroke back. That suggests to me that his power in AAA this year could be the real thing, and note the season of an older guy who’s learned to hit AAA pitcher’s mistakes a long way. I’d hardly guarantee it, but it’s entirely possible that Duda’s bat is the real thing. Now, if only the NL had the DH…

    Comment by Jack Str — November 16, 2010 @ 8:09 pm

  20. What?

    Robert Carson?

    Seriously?

    Carson’s CEILING is as a LOOGY, not his floor. Off the top of my head, I can think of any number of Mets prospects who have more promise than Carson – Duda, Ceciliani, Marte, Familia, Goeddel. Hell, I’d definitely take Steven Matz over Carson even though Matz has yet to throw a professional pitch.

    Comment by Jargal — November 16, 2010 @ 9:26 pm

  21. Duda not being able to field any position even at a mildly bad level is the thing that’s going to relegate him to a bench/platoon guy in the NL On the offensive side of things, I don’t think it’s silly to see him perform above average across the board. Ryan Klesko type that could valuable to a team that needs a platoon partner at DH/LF/RF.

    Comment by Franco — November 16, 2010 @ 9:31 pm

  22. .389 obp 23 hrs 87 rbis 40 doubles and a.304 ba. and he deserves the bench? If lucas duda gets 500 at bats a lock for 30 hrs in majors.

    Comment by eddie 86 — November 16, 2010 @ 11:11 pm

  23. 5 errors in 153 games for duda is bad?

    Comment by eddie 86 — November 16, 2010 @ 11:12 pm

  24. The first post just reeked of homeritis with the 86 in your handle. The second post reeks of trolling on this site.

    Comment by Franco — November 17, 2010 @ 12:21 am

  25. by the way, you had the mets record wrong at the top of this article, they finished 79-83,4th place—-are your other stats correct?

    Comment by kdoh — November 17, 2010 @ 8:25 am

  26. I like Duda as well, but at 24 & a below average defender he is not a top 10….if his power is real he may ultimately just be a DH. I don’t think Harvey nor does Carson. Captain Kirk is too high & as much as I would love to see Havens at 2B instead of Castillo…he has never been healthy for a full season so probably shouldn’t be on the list. Does FMart equal Alex Escobar? Like Havens, Martinez should be off as well until he proves he is somewhat durable. Valdespin, Satin, Cohoon, Marte & Ceciliani could possibly been there instead.

    Comment by Mark Rak — November 17, 2010 @ 8:38 am

  27. thanks for catching the Mets record error… obviously my eyes accidentally settled on the Marlins line.

    Comment by Marc Hulet — November 17, 2010 @ 10:18 am

  28. Harvey is not similar to Kunz in terms of stuff, but similarly high-risk for such a top pick when other higher-rated players were available. Perhaps Humber is a more apt comparison. In any case, the point is, I’d have Fernando rated higher at this point in their careers.

    Comment by Dave I — November 17, 2010 @ 10:52 am

  29. I actually spent a great deal of time citing his major league walk and strikeout rates in the trade thread and couldn’t muster the energy to do it all over again for his minor league career. In this case I felt that OBP was safe to use as it’s been fairly consistent and is driven to a signifcant enough degree by his walks.

    Comment by blackout — November 17, 2010 @ 11:18 am

  30. Puello really intrigues me, seems like he has a good baseline of skills to build on in the future.

    Comment by Ernie — November 17, 2010 @ 10:29 pm

  31. Maybe it had less to do with paying slot and more to with them just picking shitty players.

    Comment by JK — December 23, 2010 @ 2:43 pm

  32. Marc, just wondering how Chris Sale makes CWS list and Jenrry Mejia doesn’t make the Mets list. I’d still consider him a prospect… or is it that he just didn’t make the list (which would be even more confusing).

    Comment by Guy — December 24, 2010 @ 8:50 am

  33. If you call giving someone $140M/year with which to build a team “not a chance”, I guess you’re right, he didn’t have a chance. But I see that as a pretty big chance. I don’t think anyone pointed a gun at Omar’s head and told him to sign Castillo, Perez, Beltran, Santana, etc. etc. while completely ignoring the starting rotation, bullpen, and everything else. Point is Minaya grew accustomed to mediocrity and just spending dough. If he didn’t like where the team was headed, he should have resigned and saved his reputation. Since he didn’t, I have to assume he was the one sitting behind the wheel.

    Comment by MC — March 25, 2011 @ 3:41 pm

  34. They should at least give the guy a chance to get 250 ABs in the majors, at least. What sort of message are you sending down to the farm if you don’t reward guys that put up +.900OPS in the minors? Favoritism…

    Comment by MC — March 25, 2011 @ 3:47 pm

  35. Cohoon has no ceiling. Sean Ratliff is interesting because at the beginning of last season I had Niewenhuis and Ratliff on a similar level- though Niewenhuis has clearly surpassed Ratliff at this point I also think that he is over valued on this list. If I had it my way, including Meija because he is still a prospect in real life.
    1) Meija
    2)Harvey
    3) Flores
    4)Puello
    5)Havens
    6)Aderlin Rodriguez
    7) Cory Vaughn
    8) Lucas Duda
    9)Juan Urbina
    10) Fernando Martinez

    Comment by GoldStandard — March 27, 2011 @ 12:17 am

  36. Cory will be a mlb all-star in the near future. He (Cory) has all the necessary tools to be a great player. I say just throw him in the show now and watch Cory produce. Cory has passion for the game being the son of a mlb player put more pressure on him to perform. I think Cory will make his mlb debut 2013 for good maybe sooner.

    Comment by Dino — May 17, 2011 @ 9:47 pm

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