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  1. How is Pablo Sandoval not on this list? He led the league in GIDP and according to that chart had 19% good for third worst.

    Comment by dustygator — November 17, 2010 @ 4:11 pm

  2. Wow, I would have thought Sandoval with 26 GIDPs would have made the list. Is he 7th?

    Comment by Justa Name — November 17, 2010 @ 4:14 pm

  3. I know the old school thought about how the fastest guy should bat lead off and steal, but does this hold any water? as in, at what point does high OBP and low speed become better to lead off than average OBP and lots of speed? basically, how important (or not) is speed to the top of the order/ lead off spot?

    Comment by phoenix — November 17, 2010 @ 4:17 pm

  4. he led the NL right? is it just coincidence that all the worst GIDP-ers are in the AL?

    Comment by phoenix — November 17, 2010 @ 4:19 pm

  5. This study (looking at different skill sets) has been studied extensively here and elsewhere. The conclusions (someone correct me if I’m wrong) seem to indicate that batting order really only matters in the sense that you want your best hitters to get the most at bats in a season. Each spot in the lineup you drop costs something like 15-20 PA per season. Compared to getting 15-20 more PA for #2-#6 in the Yankee lineup, the “cost” of having a slow, high OBP guy in the leadoff spot is negligible.

    I think outside of the “get your better players more PA” strategy, the studies found that the least optimal to most optimal lineup was something like the different of a couple of wins. Considering that nobody actually uses the least optimal lineup (most are fairly optimal, Jeter hitting leadoff notwithstanding), the difference between the actual lineup and optimal lineup is less than a win over a season.

    Comment by Travis — November 17, 2010 @ 4:34 pm

  6. Math on pablo: 19% DP in 137 Opps

    .08 X 137 X .35 = -3.86 runs, he should be second.

    Comment by zenbitz — November 17, 2010 @ 4:35 pm

  7. Actual list (took me 4 minutes in Excel given the link above):

    Ryan Doumit# PIT -2.72
    Kurt Suzuki OAK -2.75
    Derek Jeter NYY -2.94
    Ty Wigginton BAL -3.21
    Michael Cuddyer MIN -3.58
    Wilson Valdez PHI -3.78
    Pablo Sandoval# SFG -3.84
    Adrian Beltre BOS -4.00
    Ivan Rodriguez WSN -5.24
    Billy Butler KCR -6.14

    Apparently the NL matters too.

    And since I am here, here are the 10 best at DPR
    Curtis Granderson* NYY 4.44
    Carl Crawford* TBR 4.16
    Jonny Gomes CIN 3.70
    Carlos Pena* TBR 3.53
    Roger Bernadina* WSN 2.97
    Johnny Damon* DET 2.94
    Rickie Weeks MIL 2.74
    Chase Utley* PHI 2.60
    Ichiro Suzuki* SEA 2.44
    Brennan Boesch* DET 2.33

    Apologies for formatting…

    Comment by zenbitz — November 17, 2010 @ 4:41 pm

  8. in case anyone wonders, I am sure the differences between my numbers and original poster are “fractional” DPs which my lazy math counts and OPs does not.

    DPR = (DPrate – DPrate_avg)*DPopps*R_DP
    Eg Billy Butler = (0.24 – 0.11) * 135 * 0.35 = -6.14

    Original eq = DPrate_avg*135 – trueDPs * R_DP = -6.00
    actually I think he also rounded off “estimated DPs”

    Comment by zenbitz — November 17, 2010 @ 4:48 pm

  9. You had a bad edit somewhere in the Adrian Beltre paragraph that left this rogue phrase behind:

    “but this was it has only been since last season ”

    As such, that sentence makes no literal sense.

    Comment by Llewdor — November 17, 2010 @ 5:01 pm

  10. What’s the deal with Jeter? All of these guys are slow, right-handed dead pull hitters. Jeter is more of a slow, right-handed improvisational flick hitter. For a guy who loves punching fastballs into the RCF alley, he must roll over on the off speed stuff a lot.

    Comment by Choo — November 17, 2010 @ 5:29 pm

  11. How is Pudge Rodriguez not on the list considering he had 25 GIDP and a 28% GIDP rate? This list is invalid if he is not included.

    Comment by pm — November 17, 2010 @ 5:45 pm

  12. his bat is slowing down. not only is that causing him to fall behind on stuff instead of shooting it the other way, but it also has been forcing him to swing earlier to compensate, which has led to him swinging at stuff he shouldn’t, which of course leads to bad contact/ getting fooled.

    Comment by phoenix — November 17, 2010 @ 5:48 pm

  13. Not enough PA’s to make the cut, probably.

    Comment by Choo — November 17, 2010 @ 5:50 pm

  14. so my question is then: should speed factor into the lineup at all? do you base every decision on wOBA and the triple slash, or do you consider that someone like gardner might get stuck behind someone like posada on the bases? probably thats negligible because of how often this scenario would occur, but idk.

    I think about this stuff when I hear things like “the dodgers need a lead off man” and that they thought posednick could be that, even though his bat and OBP are nothing special. they just want him leading off because of his speed. is that a good choice over the player with the best OBP on the team?

    Comment by phoenix — November 17, 2010 @ 5:54 pm

  15. yet still he managed to ground into 25 DPs. that’s even worse for limited PA.

    Comment by phoenix — November 17, 2010 @ 5:55 pm

  16. No way Wilson Valdez doesn’t lead this list.

    Comment by Bill — November 17, 2010 @ 7:24 pm

  17. For those asking why Pudge Rodriguez and Pablo Sandoval aren’t on the list, it’s pretty clear to me that the author simply forgot to mention that this is an AL-only list. Look at the rankings zenbitz came up with:
    “Ryan Doumit# PIT -2.72
    Kurt Suzuki OAK -2.75
    Derek Jeter NYY -2.94
    Ty Wigginton BAL -3.21
    Michael Cuddyer MIN -3.58
    Wilson Valdez PHI -3.78
    Pablo Sandoval# SFG -3.84
    Adrian Beltre BOS -4.00
    Ivan Rodriguez WSN -5.24
    Billy¬†Butler KCR -6.14″

    Butler, Beltre, Cuddyer, Jeter and Wigginton are the worst-rated American League players. Rodriguez, Sandoval, Wilson Valdez, and Ryan Doumit are the 4 worst-rated National League players. A quick scan through the list for what I’d consider “qualifiers” based on opportunities, Yadier Molina’s 18% (19/103) translates to about -2.52, I think good for 5th-worst in the NL. For posterity’s sake, Bengie Molina, who spent time in each league, was 14/77 (=18%), while other brother Jose was 7/36 (=19%) in limited backup duty. Overall, the Molina brothers came in at 19.5% (40/216), or -5.68 runs. So even all three slow-as-molasses Molinas COMBINED are less damaging to a lineup than Billy Butler by way of double plays.

    But here’s my favorite number from the B-R list: Cubs catcher Geovany Soto only grounded into 5 double plays in 69 chances, for a 7.2% rate. If we take the league rate to one decimal, 10.8%, Soto was worth +.869 runs. Worrisome, though, is that Starlin Castro grounded into double plays at a 16% clip (14/85), worth -1.687 runs. I think it’s time that everyone in the Cubs organization realizes that no, young Castro is not particularly fast on the bases. Part of it is that, like Derek Jeter, he’s a right-handed, flick-hitting guy who is able to make decent contact with just about anything close to the zone. Low BB and K rates, high GB and good LD rates.

    I’d imagine the post just went up in a rough draft form, since there are also a handful of errors that weren’t proofread one final time, leaving a couple sentences unintelligible.

    Comment by Dann M — November 17, 2010 @ 7:25 pm

  18. 20 GIDP’s in 333 AB’s. That would put him on pace to break Jim Rice’s all time record.

    Comment by Mark — November 17, 2010 @ 7:26 pm

  19. This is correct… I mistakenly used my AL-list when I meant to do the whole thing. I will post the complete trailers when I do my “good” list later this week.

    Comment by Matt Klaassen — November 17, 2010 @ 9:49 pm

  20. My apologies all. As noted in the edited lead paragraph, I did screw up and only use the AL leaderboard. Thanks for catching my stupid mistake. I am properly chastised, and wish I could say I’ll never do it again… At least I’ll try. I’ve “fixed” it and posted a corrected version for all MLB. I’ll still to the leaders later. Thanks for your understanding.

    Comment by Matt Klaassen — November 17, 2010 @ 10:59 pm

  21. Don’t worry Mat it isn’t like AL Fans consider the NL to be important anyway

    Comment by Trebecois — November 18, 2010 @ 5:19 am

  22. you’re welcome

    Comment by zenbitz — November 18, 2010 @ 1:28 pm

  23. btw… this article is now much worse because NO JETER!

    /jk

    Comment by zenbitz — November 18, 2010 @ 1:29 pm

  24. On Beltre: “it has only been since last season (18%) that he has really had trouble.”

    That’s because last year was the last time in a while he actually had anybody on base when he got to the plate…

    Comment by B N — November 18, 2010 @ 3:00 pm

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