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  1. I don’t think it’s fair to do a naive 5-3-2 weighting when the last season is such a down year.

    Honestly, I don’t see him breaking the 2 win mark in 2010.

    Comment by Andy S — November 28, 2010 @ 3:19 pm

  2. “Honestly, I don’t see him breaking the 2 win mark in 2010.”

    Not perhaps the boldest of predictions at this point in the season, but I think I’m with you.

    Comment by Anon21 — November 28, 2010 @ 3:35 pm

  3. honestly, i think the loss of velocity and the “dead arm” he complained of in the latter half of the season are telling. He has not been able to throw his FB by hitters and his mistakes get crushed because of it. On top of that, he has lost some control, which is absolutley essential for a guy without overpowering stuff. His walks rose, his strikeouts dropped, his HBP rose, his homers rose, and he has visibly and measurably lost velocity and “stuff.” the NL will help him, but he will be a back of the rotation innings eater at best.

    Comment by phoenix — November 28, 2010 @ 3:57 pm

  4. I find it ridiculous that you basically blow off the idea that living arrangements/area don’t play a part in a player’s choice to sign somewhere. I think it plays a big part, especially for Japanese players wanting to play on the West Coast.

    Comment by John — November 28, 2010 @ 4:39 pm

  5. The Marlins continuing to baffle, equally making moves that only make long-term sense and ones that look “win this year.” The only answer is that they value their current core very highly, likely to a fault.

    Comment by deadpool — November 28, 2010 @ 5:46 pm

  6. Although you can get those ‘core players’ by dangling middle relivers and utility infielders, rumor has it…

    Comment by Jason B — November 28, 2010 @ 5:48 pm

  7. I know that for me personally, I’d never take a job outside of Boston – NYC – Philly (i.e., more than a three hour drive from my family and friends and everyone I know). You could offer me a salary ten times what I’m making now, and I just wouldn’t do it. I don’t know why baseball players are supposed to be any different.

    Comment by JimNYC — November 28, 2010 @ 5:52 pm

  8. well you’re at one end of the extreme. Also, they basically only have to live in that city for 3 months of the year. They play 6 months of the year and they are on the road half of that. Also, they have the money to pay for their families and friends to travel with them if they so choose so. So it makes tons of sense. And thinking that every single person in the world is of the same mindset of you is ridiculous. And most of them don’t play their entire careers in one place. they travel all around.

    Comment by Jonathan — November 28, 2010 @ 6:50 pm

  9. and their playing career only lasts a few years. it isn’t a life decision especially when you factor in how short a contract usually is.

    Comment by Jonathan — November 28, 2010 @ 6:51 pm

  10. Yankees get a sandwich pick, correct?

    Comment by Mike R. — November 28, 2010 @ 7:49 pm

  11. He’s just trying to get some of that Marlin Stadium K inflating magic.

    Comment by Danmay — November 28, 2010 @ 8:05 pm

  12. Here’s $20MM/year.

    No thanks.

    Yeah. That happens all the time.

    Comment by Mike — November 28, 2010 @ 8:50 pm

  13. If the alternative was being unemployed, I imagine you’d change your mind. We all have places we’d like to live, but we all also want a job. That’s how I’m living 10 hours from my family. But I have a job, and I’m lucky enough to like it, so that’s all there is to it.

    Comment by DL80 — November 28, 2010 @ 9:07 pm

  14. Free agents worth $20MM/year only get 1 offer.

    Yea that happens all the time.

    Comment by bonestock94 — November 28, 2010 @ 9:15 pm

  15. As a Yankees fan I’m still completely confused about his inability to perform over the course of a season in the BX. I expect him to be a workhorse that pitches better than avg in 2011, and I’ll still be just as confused.

    Comment by bonestock94 — November 28, 2010 @ 9:18 pm

  16. So is your point that the down year shouldn’t be counted, or that there’s a specific (or nonspecific) reason to discount it, or that your projections in general discount what you consider to be outliers, or…. what, exactly?

    Comment by Jack Str — November 28, 2010 @ 10:37 pm

  17. Yep, they do, and it seems Vazquez negotiated a condition in this contract that the Marlins can’t offer him arbitration at this time next season(end of 2011).

    Why, I’m not sure, but maybe he was p*ssed at the Yankees for trying to use him to get draft pick compensation and he doesn’t want that to happen again?

    I know, it’s probably based on the thought that after a down year with the Yankees in 2010, he can prove his worth again in the NL East where he was great with the Braves in 2009…perhaps even becoming Type A again, and if such a thing happens, he doesn’t want to scare away potential suitors next offseason from offering him a multi-year contract if signing him comes with the potential loss of a first or second round draft pick.

    But he would have to have a pretty great season to be Type A at the end of 2011, based on his 2010 stats. And he could be Type B again, sure, but I don’t think that would scare anyone away too much since Type B doesn’t involve the signing team losing a draft pick.

    So, eh…still perplexed by that one. ;)

    Comment by Jim — November 29, 2010 @ 2:43 am

  18. On the contrary, I’m saying that the most recent year has to be counted much more heavily when it’s so different from the others.

    Comment by Andy S — November 29, 2010 @ 3:40 am

  19. Low pressure situation on an NL team?

    I fully expect a mid 2s ERA and 4-5 Wins (WAR, not total “wins”) from him as a result. He’s the opposite of a red light player.

    Comment by NEPP — November 29, 2010 @ 9:15 am

  20. Jim-
    Good possible reason. Also I would add that the marlins will have a harder time trading him midseason if the receiving team gets just a rental, and NOT a rental + picks. Maybe that played a part.
    I think this is a terrific signing. But extremely inconsistent with the Uggla trade… The bottom line is this will continue to be a middle of the pack, fascinating, possibly contending team… Say what you want about the Marlins, but they never spend money and yet always seem to avoid being a complete joke at worst, and at best… win it all…

    Comment by Simmy — November 29, 2010 @ 9:17 am

  21. Jim, I think you nailed it. If he *does* become a Type A, he doesn’t want to hit the market with the specter of a draft pick weighing down his market value.

    Frankly, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a lot more FA’s start negotiating this into their contracts. I wonder if it is permissible to say “no arb if Type A” in a contract. I doubt the players care if they were Type B’s, but that Type A really sinks those second tier FA’s.

    Comment by Steve — November 29, 2010 @ 9:56 am

  22. well, one could argue that at $7M, an Arb offer becomes pretty reasonable so they could get picks down the line. Either way, I have a hard time believing there were no 2 yr offers out there for Javy. Strange deal.

    Comment by FlushingFlash — November 29, 2010 @ 10:01 am

  23. if that’s correct and the Fish cannot offer him Arb, then scratch what I said above.

    Comment by FlushingFlash — November 29, 2010 @ 10:02 am

  24. don’t know how he could be pissed at the Yankees when he must have had an agreement with them that he wouldn’t accept Arb, cause he left about $4M on the table for 2011 by not accepting.

    Comment by FlushingFlash — November 29, 2010 @ 10:05 am

  25. He only leaves $4M on the table if the Yankees keep him on their roster next year. If they cut him in ST, they only owe him $2M or so, and now he is looking for a job at a time when teams have spent their budgets and filled their rotations.

    Or, the Yankees eat a little money and trade him this winter.

    I think it’s pretty obvious that location is more important to JV than getting every last dime, and Florida is basically the most ideal location for him. He’d probably rather make $7M playing in Florida than $11M playing in Seattle.

    Different things have more value to different people.

    Comment by Steve — November 29, 2010 @ 11:07 am

  26. and btw, I haven’t seen it reported that there is an agreement that the Fish cannot offer Arb a yr from now.

    Comment by FlushingFlash — November 29, 2010 @ 11:52 am

  27. If ballplayers travel all around, then it would make sense that they would want to keep their families all in one place, especially those with younger children.

    Off the top of my head, Thruman Munson, Andy Pettitte, Ken Griffey Jr, Randy Johnson, Matt Williams all expressed the desire to play closer to home. With the exception of Munson, they all got their wish either via trade of free agency.

    Comment by Raf — November 29, 2010 @ 11:56 am

  28. There may have been 2 yr offers, but the down year he had, combined with his interest in pitching for the Marlins for a year may have factored into his decision to sign for a year.

    Comment by Raf — November 29, 2010 @ 11:59 am

  29. It doesn’t happen all the time, but there have been instances where a player has taken less money to play elsewhere.

    Comment by Raf — November 29, 2010 @ 12:01 pm

  30. I’m surprised that they didn’t send him away for a battery of tests (or maybe they did, but it wasn’t announced), just rested him on occasion.

    Comment by Raf — November 29, 2010 @ 12:03 pm

  31. Huh?

    I’m not sure what you’re reading that I’m not. He basically said that the decision to sign with Florida was likely influenced by proximity to his family. How is that blowing off the idea that it had no impact?

    Comment by Nathaniel Dawson — November 29, 2010 @ 6:43 pm

  32. It’s a crapshoot signing a guy like Vazquez.

    Comment by cgehring — February 4, 2014 @ 3:36 pm

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