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  1. Good signing by the Dodgers. If he is in his decline and isn’t playing close to the 2 WAR level it will be easy enough for them to skip him in the rotation a few times late in the season to make sure that the option doesn’t vest.

    Comment by Seattleite — November 29, 2010 @ 11:00 am

  2. nice piece, Jack. I was looking at him the other day and noticed a career low BABIP, career high strand rate and GB%. If his HR/FB holds steady and the remainder regress to norms… yeesh.

    Comment by Michael — November 29, 2010 @ 11:11 am

  3. This is the type of pitcher that the Dodgers need. An innings eater.

    Comment by Jeff Wise - Baseball Hitting — November 29, 2010 @ 11:51 am

  4. Unless Garland pitches 2 WAR each of the next two years, this is a bad deal. Your essentially paying him the maximum value of a two WAR player. It would be so much easier to add 6 or 8 guys (hypothetically) on minor league deals and hope one of them sticks while saving 14 million dollars. My guess here is that Colletti is looking to trade Billingsley. I’m sure he’s at least shopping for an affordable left fielder/ first baseman, when he should just move Ethier to left and shop for a center/right fielder.

    Comment by dusto — November 29, 2010 @ 12:12 pm

  5. Only 12 pitchers have thrown 1400+ innings since the start of 2004. Jon Garland will be paid the second-least among them, behind only Livan Hernandez. Javier Vazquez just signed for $~7MM, and after that, the next cheapest for 2011 is Bronson Arroyo at $13MM. I’m thinking Garland, Hernandez, and Vazquez might want to have talks with their agents about not getting longer deals earlier in their careers. I apologize in advance for the lack of formatting.
    1539.0 129 30 23.00 CC Sabathia
    1529.1 118 31 14.00 Mark Buerhle
    1513.0 131 33 16.00 Roy Oswalt
    1512.1 151 31 22.50 Johan Santana
    1497.0 95 35 ~1.50 Livan Hernandez
    1471.1 111 33 13.00 Bronson Arroyo
    1458.1 106 31 5.00 Jon Garland
    1455.2 145 33 20.00 Roy Halladay
    1430.1 103 32 18.50 Barry Zito
    1421.1 107 37 15.00 Derek Lowe
    1418.0 103 34 Javier Vazquez
    1403.2 117 32 15.25 John Lackey

    Comment by camisadelgolf — November 29, 2010 @ 12:44 pm

  6. What was wrong with John Ely, other than the woeful LAD outfield defense?

    Comment by PL — November 29, 2010 @ 2:39 pm

  7. Except that Garland adds value by reducing the innings pitched by Clayton Kershaw, and, to a lesser extent, Chad Billingsley. If you can go to a true 5 man rotation, you reduce the innings on those far more valuable arms and Garland is worth more than his WAR. Also, I think Garland’s WAR was a little too weighed down by park factors, especially considering he will be turning around and going back into another big park.

    Comment by Alireza — November 29, 2010 @ 3:18 pm

  8. Garland had an amazing early career deal that saw him being paid 3/29 for his last year of arb and first 2 years of free agency.

    Comment by Alireza — November 29, 2010 @ 4:17 pm

  9. Ely’s problem was his command inside the strike zone. He always throws strikes, but his fastball just isn’t hard enough to miss either the corners or the high and low parts of the zone. Without establishing the fastball, his wicked change isn’t effective, and his curve is really just a show-me pitch that drops in to a batter looking for the change.

    The other issue is that he isn’t established as an innings eater yet and certainly can be aided by more development.

    Comment by Alireza — November 29, 2010 @ 4:20 pm

  10. Could someone explain, or link to a good explanation, how park factors effect strikeout and BB numbers?

    Comment by Fro — November 30, 2010 @ 1:33 am

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