Unless they rely on Elbert I expect them to get a loogy of some sort. Beimel would work, or Sherill on a minor league deal. Would also like to see Saito signed to an incentives based deal or at least a spring invite. Weaver gets a spring invite as well no doubt.
At shortstop, Brendan Ryan tanked in 2010. His defense was good — perhaps better than any other season of his career. But he produced a mere .256 wOBA, which amounted to the worst batting runs above average among shortstops not named Cesar Izturis. His defense helped him produce one lonely WAR. Again, he could rebound with the bat a bit in 2011, but now the Cardinals are banking on two bounce backs.”
Do you believe that Ryan’s true talent wOBA is .256? Of course not, he’s one year removed from a .324 wOBA season and he had a ~.250 BABIP last year. “Bouncing back” to his career or projected wOBA is FAR more likely than him continuing on last year. It’s not like players are what they were the last season – true talent level is an ever changing thing. People always say that someone “bounces back” from a bad year. It’s the opposite, all they do is regress to their mean.
IOW, if you have two players – both projected to have a league average wOBA – and one is coming off of a .250 wOBA year and the other is coming off of a .400 wOBA, they are both equally likely to wOBA .330 the next year (given that’s there projection). There is no bouncing back or coming down to earth, there is only true talent.
So they can have a week to negotiate! They must figure they have a price he’ll say yes to. I agree it seems to put the advantage in Theriot’s court, as much as it can be. But then the Cards are contenders and want him while Theriot doesn’t know what’s out there, in the mist.
Comment by ofMontreal — November 30, 2010 @ 9:43 pm
“On defense he’ll keep plenty of balls on the infield. Unfortunately, even if he does rebound he’ll do much of the same on offense.”
About the Theriot thing: Forgiven! Carroll is a better version of Theriot but an infield of Blake, Loney, Furcal and Uribe with Carroll and Theriot would work but that’s not going to happen now. Theriot could turn out well but I would like him to do that somewhere else. I hate his weak bat and bad base-running. I don’t know if Donnie Baseball would have batted him second and I am glad that I don’t have to find out.
Giving Uribe 21 mil: Probably stupid
Trading for Theriot when he is going to get dumped: Assuredly stupid.
I’m trying to figure out where Theriot is going to bat.
If Theriot can have a .320ish wOBA, we can live with that. If B. Ryan can do the same thing, that’ll be great. If those things happen, chances are every infield position will be at league average or greater (2+ WAR). That would likely lead to very good things for the team’s success.
2B is not really a make or break position for StL. The team is still centered around carp, Wain, Holliday, and AP5, being at ~5+ WAR. It does, however, get frustrating that the team essentially relies on these 4 guys to accumulate 25 WAR in order for them to win the division.
It is kind of funny that StL is replacing -0.2 WAR with 0.0 WAR.
Comment by CircleChange11 — December 1, 2010 @ 2:47 pm
In fairness, which “real 2B” could they have acquired? Remember, they’ve got their #1 pick from last year’s draft waiting in the wings, so a long-term option isn’t smart or necessary. Not that I’m a fan of the Theriot acquisition — just that they’re somewhat stuck with the hand they’ve dealt themselves at 2B.
I’d also be interested in Bill Hall. Even with the Theriot, I’m interested in Bill Hall.
Gimme somebody like Jerry Hairston.
The cardinals have Tyler Greene, and just traded for an older version of the same thing (Theriot). Tyler Greene, Skip Schumaker, Aaron Miles, Ryan Theriot. Where’s the upgrade?
How many players off waivers or rule 5 can perform at replacement level with a cieling of 2 WAR?
2010 Free Agent 2B’s
Ronnie Belliard (36) … flip a coin.
Craig Counsell (40) … No
David Eckstein (36)** … Yes.
Mark Ellis (34)* – club option … Yes.
Mark Grudzielanek (41) … No
Cristian Guzman (33) … No.
Jerry Hairston Jr. (35) …. YES!!!!!!!!!!! I’ll take him. Good defense. okay bat. Likely low price. Decent bet to accumulate 2 WAR (league average)
Bill Hall (31) – club option … my 1st choice. No longer an option.
Anderson Hernandez (28) … No thanks.
Orlando Hudson (33)** … we shoulda signed him 2 years ago. I’ll still take him.
Omar Infante (29)** – club option … not an option.
Akinori Iwamura (32) … uh, no.
Adam Kennedy (25) – club option … Nah.
Felipe Lopez (31)** … I’ll take him. We should not have let him go in the 1st place.
Julio Lugo (35) … Nice little run at the end of one season with StL, but no.
Kaz Matsui (35) … No.
Aaron Miles (34) … Nuh-uh.
Scott Moore (27) … No.
Nick Punto (33) – club option Not an option.
Juan Uribe (31)** … not an option.
Comment by CircleChange11 — December 2, 2010 @ 1:27 pm
How are Eckstein, Hairston, and FLopez not better options than Theriot?
We’re not talking about a team that’s rebuilkding. We’re talking about a team whose window to win it all may only be open for a couple more years, depending on how the contracts of the “4 Pillars” (MH7, CC29, AW50, AP5) fit together.
Comment by CircleChange11 — December 2, 2010 @ 1:30 pm
Hawksworth is a replacement-level swingman. He’s really not worth much anyway, and is out of options so the Cardinals would’ve had to expose him to other teams in any case. I quite like the guy but realistically it’s no loss to trade him for Theriot.
Comment by Felonius_Monk — December 4, 2010 @ 11:43 am
Hairston’s probably better, but Eckstein is coming off his best season in years in his mid-30s and will cost more than Theriot. Lopez has burnt his bridges in St Louis, as with pretty much everywhere else he’s played, so wasn’t an option.
I quite like the Theriot acquisition. He’s better than our current 2B options (Schumaker/Greene) and probably equivalent, value-wise, to an average Brendan Ryan year at SS, plus he’s probably better than the other 3B options if Freese (as appears likely) won’t be fit for the start of 2011. I agree Hairston might’ve been a better choice, but Theriot’s not a bad cheap signing for effectively nothing.
Comment by Felonius_Monk — December 4, 2010 @ 11:46 am