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  1. If the Jays can get Grienke without giving up Snider or Drabek, I wouldn’t be opposed. Otherwise, no thanks. (Unless of course they can agree to an extension with Grienke first…)

    Comment by hgjghgjjh — December 6, 2010 @ 12:51 pm

  2. Are we sure that Drabek will be in the season-opening rotation? He hasn’t spent any time at all in AAA yet. I though his debut was pretty good but I really figured he would get another half year in the minors at least. Zep and Brad Mills are probably decent options for 4 and 5 in the meantime.

    Comment by mbrady16 — December 6, 2010 @ 12:59 pm

  3. The jays have had a tendency in recent history to jump pitching prospects who aren’t struggling straight from AA to the majors, only sending them down to develop in AAA if they end up struggling in the bigs. That seems to be the course that they’re committed to taking with Drabek, although it’s always possible that he starts the year in Vegas if he fails to impress in spring training.

    Jesse Litsch and Brad Mills are not particularly desirable candidates to have your rotation. Litsch had a previous history of extreme ERA-FIP luck, but it seems to have ran out along with his health. Mills really just doesn’t seem to have good enough stuff (or control) to stick as a starter. I would suggest Zack Stewart as a more more likely candidate to take the final job in the rotation if Drabek somehow loses it.

    Comment by Lazerball — December 6, 2010 @ 1:19 pm

  4. Keep dreaming.

    Comment by tbr — December 6, 2010 @ 1:22 pm

  5. How do you write an article about Toronto’s perspective yet not even mention the player they received, Brett Lawrie?

    Comment by Dale Westmoreland — December 6, 2010 @ 1:26 pm

  6. Disregard that comment.

    Total mistake.

    Sorry.

    Comment by Dale Westmoreland — December 6, 2010 @ 1:26 pm

  7. From everything I’ve heard, calling Lawrie a “middle infielder” is generous.

    I wonder what makes the Jays think the Royals want Lawrie…it’s doesn’t strike me as Moore’s style to say “if you go get me so and so we’ll send you Greinke.”

    Comment by tbr — December 6, 2010 @ 1:26 pm

  8. I dont understand the idea of trading away Marcum in order to land Greinke. I conceed that Greinke is a better pitcher, but it is not by as big a margin as people are making out. Pitching in the AL East as Marcum did is definately harder than in the AL Central.

    So factoring in the relative skill of Greinke to Marcum, and then the lose of prospects, and the difference in cost of Greinke to Marcum, I dont even think it is close to worth it.

    Lawrie is a legit prospect and he is from Canada. There appears to be reason to keep him. If they turn him and say… Snider around for Greinke they will have a slightly better team in 2011 then when they started the process (before trading Marcum) but at a significanly higher salary. The team in 2012 will also be a little better, but again at a higher salary. The team in 2013 and beyond wont even be close to as good when Greinke departs for $20M per (to Boston or Philly) and Lawrie and Snider are playing in KC and Marcum still in MLW on a relatively reasonable last year of arbitration.

    Comment by Socrates — December 6, 2010 @ 1:29 pm

  9. I think Stewart and Rzepszynski to start the year, and Drybek after a month or so to replace one of them or an injury (this would delay free agency).

    Comment by Socrates — December 6, 2010 @ 1:31 pm

  10. I don’t think Blue Jays pull a deal off for Greinke unless it’s a steal. I can see the Jays trading away Bautista for another elite prospect, I don’t think the Blue Jays will re-sign him to a Jayson Werthesque contract.

    AA is the Asset Collector, I think you’ll continue to see him make these kinds of moves. Especially if it means adding elite prospects that will all peak at the same time.

    Comment by GCM1979 — December 6, 2010 @ 2:01 pm

  11. As a Mariner’s fan I am perhaps still a little bitter about the League/Morrow trade, but to hope for “30 starts from Morrow at the level of his second half performance” next year seems beyond credulity to me.

    The kid has a live fastball to be sure, he also has terrible command and has never pitched more than 150 innings. That doesn’t even take into account his diabetes. Yes the Mariner’s jerked him around, and maybe he just needed a change of scenery, but I wouldn’t count on more than 150 IP of around a 4.00 FIP at the very best.

    Comment by Cheese Whiz — December 6, 2010 @ 2:52 pm

  12. His command did get much better as the season went on. You can find videos comparing his different mechanics from early in the year to his later starts. It isn’t just luck.

    Comment by hgjghgjjh — December 6, 2010 @ 2:56 pm

  13. the blanket reference to “bad command” for Morrow is really not accurate. He has periods of good command and bad command. While I agree that he is likely to continue to have some bouts of bad command again this year, he appears to be getting closer to correcting his command issues. Plenty of young pitchers struggle to adjust to the major league strikezone. Especially guys with the STUFF that Morrow has.

    Health being another issue, I agree, that he doesnt seem safe to project to 30-plus starts. I assume he has an arm injury in his future yet.

    All that said, I dont think that there is anything League can do at this point to make this deal not look like a huge loss for the Mariners.

    Comment by Socrates — December 6, 2010 @ 3:05 pm

  14. It’s all about Greinke. If he continues to be loud about not wanting to be in KC come spring, the Royals will lose the leverage that the relative scarcity of available top starters has given them. Clearly Greinke does not enjoy being the subject of media speculation.

    Comment by Someanalyst — December 6, 2010 @ 3:11 pm

  15. “The jays have had a tendency in recent history to jump pitching prospects who aren’t struggling straight from AA to the majors, only sending them down to develop in AAA if they end up struggling in the bigs.”

    Agreed. I think that tendency has gotten worse since their AAA affiliate went from being an IL team to a PCL team.

    Comment by Someanalyst — December 6, 2010 @ 3:13 pm

  16. Fair enough, they kid has always had talent and he certainly could have made strides. However I think durability will always be an issue for him, and expecting better than 3.75-4.25 BB/9 next year seems like wishing to me. Time will tell.

    Comment by Cheese Whiz — December 6, 2010 @ 3:14 pm

  17. I wonder what makes folks assume they intend to flip him as part of a Greinke package. Some idiots in the TO press have ripped the Jays for “missing out” on Joey Votto. When Milwaukee proved willing to deal Lawrie that might have been in the back of their minds…

    Comment by Someanalyst — December 6, 2010 @ 3:15 pm

  18. Agreed. The “compete in 2011″ idea is a bit of stretch I think. Best to plan for expanded playoffs in 2012 as the start of a new era.

    Comment by Someanalyst — December 6, 2010 @ 3:18 pm

  19. Is Dustin McGowan in the running for the 5th spot?

    Comment by Nick V — December 6, 2010 @ 3:21 pm

  20. Time will tell indeed. We have to hope that he doesn’t develop injury tendencies as he gets used to the 200IP load because, as a diabetic, recovery will always be a bit of an issue (I say that as a fellow insulin-shooter).

    Comment by Someanalyst — December 6, 2010 @ 3:22 pm

  21. Not unless he shows up at ST with his velocity recovered and the ability to pitch every couple of days without pain…

    Comment by Someanalyst — December 6, 2010 @ 3:23 pm

  22. True, the deal does not look good for the Mariner’s right now. Clearly Z thought that Morrow would never make it as a starter and cut bait. However Chavez has come along quite well since the trade and still may provide them with value.

    Comment by Cheese Whiz — December 6, 2010 @ 3:24 pm

  23. AA the Asset Collector… I hope we never get to calling him “attack” (AAtAC)… I need sleep.

    Comment by Someanalyst — December 6, 2010 @ 3:25 pm

  24. I am pretty sure that Rzepczynski will be the fourth starter when the bell rings in 2011. With a career major league ERA+ of 100, and FIP and xFIP to match, and a very good minor league record, he will do just fine.

    Comment by Mike Green — December 6, 2010 @ 3:43 pm

  25. Why would the Royals want any part of Lawrie or Snider when its been rumored the rangers will give Perez? Also, Does anyone think its possible the Royals package Grienke, Butler, and Soria for Perez, Feliz and Scheppers.

    Comment by nolanryan — December 6, 2010 @ 5:10 pm

  26. No. That doesn’t make much sense at all.

    Comment by mbrady16 — December 6, 2010 @ 5:21 pm

  27. It amazes me how much everybody thinks Greinke can get in a trade. No way the Jays give up Snider+Drabek+more – that’s far more than we even got for Halladay, and far more than packages for Lee, CC, Lee, Santana, etc

    I don’t know why the league is so low on Snider now, he was a top prospect since high school with hitting talent that got him in the top-10 range for BA. He’s been jerked around by bad managers (cough cito gaston cough) and gotten injured just as he was hitting his stride. The fact remains though, he still has one of the prettiest swings around, or in the AL East at least. Prettiest swing on the team anyway (a “right” Adam Lind has a bit of say as well).

    No way both of those players go in the same deal.

    Comment by exxrox — December 6, 2010 @ 9:32 pm

  28. to add a bit more, trading both of those pieces would create the kind of gaping hole that would be difficult to fill…not worth it at all

    Comment by exxrox — December 6, 2010 @ 9:38 pm

  29. I completely agree, if the jays can get greinke without giving up snider or drabek im all for it. cito was horrible for snider as he never gave him a chance to play regularly, just wait until next season to make a real analysis of snider after he is actually able to play everyday. his bat speed is off the charts and drastically above the major league avg.

    Comment by lunchbox — December 7, 2010 @ 1:07 pm

  30. I see the starting rotation something like this, barring any more trades.
    Romero
    Morrow
    Cecil
    Drabek
    Rzepczynski

    I think drabek will perform well in spring training, he was born for this with the mental toughness from all the training and knowledge his father has given him. Rzepczynski looked better as the season went on and performed very well at the end. His AFL stats were amazing with a 1.16 ERA going 4 and 0; he’ll be ready when spring training comes around.

    Comment by lunchbox — December 7, 2010 @ 1:14 pm

  31. well, by trading Marcum Blue Jays obtained a useful player without sabotaging themselves. That’s good, right?

    And for 2011, if they repeated a rotation like that, they would be even stronger. Hell yeah!

    Comment by Elli Davis — December 27, 2010 @ 3:02 pm

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