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  1. I’d love to see the derivation for the constants in your z equation.

    Comment by peachesnnuts — December 13, 2010 @ 3:45 pm

  2. So many great uses for logistic regression in sports analysis, so few implementations. Love this.

    Comment by J-Doug — December 13, 2010 @ 4:02 pm

  3. How bout running these projections for the 2010 season? So we can see if they work?

    Comment by shthar — December 13, 2010 @ 4:21 pm

  4. 40% risk of DL time for anybody throwing 120 innings? No wonder some GM’s won’t give long term contracts to pitchers.

    Comment by MikeS — December 13, 2010 @ 5:21 pm

  5. That’s what she said!

    Comment by Resolution — December 13, 2010 @ 5:44 pm

  6. Interesting effort. I also would be curious to see this applied to pre-2010 to see what it would have predicted for the 2010 season

    Would it also be possible to publish a standard dev? (or provide a range with confidence level on the #’s?)

    And probably too small a sample size, but it might be interesting to look at pitcher types down the line if things look promising
    - physical differences… ex height/weight buckets (CC vs Lincecum)
    - pitch repertoire (either pitch types: slider heavy vs cutter, high curveball %’s, etc…. or fastball speed)

    All this would probably lead to small samples (and probably be tough to draw conclusions on), but if the equation shows some promise it might be an interesting next step (especially when hearing “his slight frame scares me” or “he has a sturdy build” observations that are often thrown out for prospects)

    Comment by Hank — December 14, 2010 @ 3:26 am

  7. So injury proneness seems to be statistically proven?

    Comment by bob — December 14, 2010 @ 3:28 am

  8. [...] I went through the formula used for predicting which starting pitchers have the greatest chances of going on the DL in …. Now here are the projections for 2011. Besides revealing the list, a few other points and possible [...]

    Pingback by Starting Pitcher DL Projections (Part 2 of 2) | FanGraphs Baseball — December 14, 2010 @ 2:30 pm

  9. It’s definitely a nice try at something valuable. You warn not to put much stock in it which is probably good advice.

    Comment by Joe — December 14, 2010 @ 4:01 pm

  10. He includes the equation, it’s easy enough to figure things out for any year where that data is available.

    Highest chance of going on the DL in the 2010 season (50% or higher):
    Tim Wakefield: 62%, Jamie Moyer: 55%, Carl Pavano: 55%, Vicente Padilla: 54%, Brian Moehler: 53%, Rich Harden: 51%, Ryan Dempster: 51%, Kevin Millwood: 51%, Jeff Suppan: 51%, Jose Contreras: 50%
    6 of the 10 did end up on the DL in 2010.

    Lowest chance of going on the DL (30% or lower):
    Matt Cain, John Danks, Clayton Kershaw, Chad Billingsley, Edwin Jackson, Rick Porcello, Tim Lincecum, Justin Verlander, Trevor Cahill, John Lannan.
    1 of the 11 did end up on the DL in 2010.

    Comment by Zac — December 14, 2010 @ 9:56 pm

  11. The best way to see how well it holds up is to add up the % and compare to the total numbers.

    So for the first group 5.3 should go on the DL and 6 did.

    The second group should be near 3 players on the DL and 1 did.

    Comment by Jeff Zimmerman — December 15, 2010 @ 9:34 am

  12. I agree strongly with trying to add body size and pitch types. There is no doubt that certain pitches are putting more stress on shoulders and elbows.

    Comment by Socrates — December 15, 2010 @ 10:30 am

  13. Mechanics. Mechanics. Mechanics. Mechanics. However, since theirs no concensious on correct mechanics, I guess this method is as good as any.

    Comment by Z — December 17, 2010 @ 7:36 pm

  14. [...] disabled list in 2011. His methodology isn’t terribly complex, so check out his two posts (part one, part two) for an explanation. He essentially based the projection on age and the pitcher’s [...]

    Pingback by Starting Rotation Disabled List Projections | River Avenue Blues — December 21, 2010 @ 9:31 am

  15. [...] of arm problems, and projecting pitcher injuries is never easy, but Jeff Zimmerman has recently done some interesting work on the likelihood of various pitchers landing on the DL. One of the first things you might notice [...]

    Pingback by The NL Central Rotations | FanGraphs Baseball — December 21, 2010 @ 5:02 pm

  16. [...] recently posted a projection formula (here and here) that estimated the chance of a starting pitcher spending time on the disabled list. To [...]

    Pingback by Starting Pitcher Disabled List Analysis (1 of 3) | FanGraphs Baseball — January 19, 2011 @ 3:31 pm

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