FanGraphs Baseball


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  1. “if Dave Dombrowski wants to jump off of a cliff, does that mean Ned Colletti has to as well?”

    It doesn’t mean he has to, but it’s a good idea nonetheless.

    Comment by D4P — December 15, 2010 @ 3:19 pm

  2. Don’t relievers generally have lower ERA’s than FIP’s? Every time they come in with 1 or 2 outs, the chances one of their runners score are lower than if they came in with 0 outs, like a starter does. ERA normally reflects this, where FIP doesn’t.

    Comment by Azmanz — December 15, 2010 @ 4:24 pm

  3. Yes, exactly. I don’t see how people miss this.

    Comment by KB — December 15, 2010 @ 4:50 pm

  4. Not that I advocate paying Guerrier so much or the Dodgers’ off-season moves generally, but he also profiles to do well in a large, dense air, near-sea level stadium.

    Comment by AA — December 15, 2010 @ 5:04 pm

  5. In addition, I don’t know why don’t expect relievers to have differences in their ability to effect BABIP.

    (sorry for the double negative)

    Comment by josh — December 15, 2010 @ 5:14 pm

  6. Matty’s a fine pitcher. 3y/12m is freakin’ madness, man.

    I just wish I could figure out why the Twins didn’t offer him arb. It’s not like we couldn’t have traded him on the 1y/5m or so he would’ve gotten had he accepted.

    Comment by adam — December 15, 2010 @ 5:46 pm

  7. Three years and twelve million for Guerrier? The Dodgers can have him.

    Comment by nolan — December 15, 2010 @ 6:43 pm

  8. I don’t understand. Why would a RP be able to control their BABiP compared to SP?

    Comment by Azmanz — December 15, 2010 @ 7:07 pm

  9. Please, please let it happen. I’m mystified as to how the Dodgers conjured up all of this money to spend and significantly less mystified that Colletti went and spread it around to a fistful of awful-to-mediocre players instead of, you know, trying to obtain value.

    Comment by Joe P. — December 15, 2010 @ 11:47 pm

  10. Yeah I did some quick run expectancy math on that once upon a time :-)

    Comment by Matthias — December 16, 2010 @ 3:46 am

  11. looks like Jesse Crain has the benchmark he can use to negotiate his contract

    Comment by Pat — December 16, 2010 @ 10:32 am

  12. Always nice to see the numbers back up intuition.

    Comment by Mike — December 16, 2010 @ 2:11 pm

  13. If I told you how easy it is to get a job in this recession, you wouldn’t believe me. But the truth is more employers are going online to find people just like you and me who are ready to work at a good job (one that pays good!). The only thing that makes sense is to stop wasting time driving around all day filling out a dozen applications and going from one boring low paying job to another. I found this site that pretty much matches you up with your dream job that is available in your city right now. I have found it very helpful. Go to

    Comment by CarlosM7 — December 17, 2010 @ 9:43 am

  14. This is the first spam I’ve seen here.

    Comment by John — December 17, 2010 @ 12:47 pm

  15. That said, it’s impressivel topical spam! It does seem awfully easy for even mediocre MLB players to get jobs during the recession…

    Comment by AJS — December 17, 2010 @ 8:08 pm

  16. I believe Guerrier succeeds by inducing a good deal of “weak contact.” If this is true, it can probably explain why numbers as simple as K%, LD%, FB%, and GB% don’t explain ERA (or how ERA can consistently beat FIP. Unfortunately, right now a quantifiable stat for weak contact doesn’t exist. However, whenever HitF/X data is made available, I hypothesize that comps like these can be made.

    For example, one could calculate overall effectiveness and effectiveness by pitch for a pitcher by comparing opposing hitters’ “off-the-bat” velocities overall and by individual pitches. Pitchers who seemingly draw weak contact should have this backed up by the numbers–are hitters actually making weaker contact? In addition, pitch values measured by wRC could eventually be evaluated by differential speed on contact off the bat. Likewise, hitters who consistently make poor contact (coughCarlosLeecough) would be punished by stats measuring velocity off the bat instead of excused by saying they were simply unlucky on BABIP.

    As for evidence, other than my own eyes all I have to offer is the fact that LD% shows the closest correlation with BABIP (R^2=.19 FOR hitter, .27 for pitchers) while GB% and FB% have R^2 values under .05 for both hitters and pitchers in 2011. Additionally, Guerrier, Jesse Crain, and the great Mariano Rivera have career BABIPs of ~.270, much lower than the average accepted figure of .300. Unsurprisingly, their career ERAs have outperformed their FIPs by 1.06, 0.62, and 0.56, respectively. By the same token, relievers notorious for giving up hard contact like Bobby Jenks (BABIP .306) and Kevin Gregg (BABIP .300) have seen their career ERAs slightly higher than FIPSs (3.40 vs 3.16 for Jenks and 4.03 vs. 3.95 for Gregg).

    I don’t know if this will be backed up by the hard HitF/X data but I have a strong suspicion it will. It seems unlikely that these guys have just been extremely lucky for several years and weak contact is my favorite explanation.

    Comment by Frank — December 18, 2010 @ 10:56 pm

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