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  1. Is there anything that could say acquiring what you need over high upside is more valuable in terms of prospects? As Drabek and Snider were the asking price, and the they may have as much upside as anyone in baseball, but the Brewers package is nowhere near that, while giving them what they need. Also, has their ever been a team in history with as many high upside prospects (1 at almost each position) as the Royals do now?

    Comment by Spaldingballs — December 19, 2010 @ 10:47 am

  2. God, it must suck to be a Royals fan.

    Comment by Tim L — December 19, 2010 @ 10:50 am

  3. Looks like Jeffress is not included at last pass. That of course was 45 minutes ago so who knows.

    Comment by Rob — December 19, 2010 @ 11:01 am

  4. The Brews gave up a large portion of thier upside. Those are some decent players/prospects and young Escobar has a chance still to be a pesky SS, whereas Yuni is plain junk. The Brews take on quite a bit of salary. The only obvisious conclusion is they are going for the Grand Salami in Fielders last year. Good luck and beat the Phillies.

    Comment by ripperlv — December 19, 2010 @ 11:04 am

  5. Snider and Drabek was a pipe dream on the part of the Royals.

    As a Brewers fan, this smarts in terms of quantity. Folks here would still like to think Escobar will pan out (despite no real evidence from last season) and that Cain is a budding star (a case of small-sampl-itis based on his quick acclimation to the bigs post call up last year.). Others lament the loss of Jake O – but none have yet acknowledged that the Brewers have no recent record (outside Gallardo and Sheets) of getting a SP prospect from the low minors to the show. Many young starters before have washed out on the Crew in spectacular fashion.

    All in all, this looks like a good deal for the Brewers. A proven performer with Cy Young upside for a bucket full of potential. With Fielder on the way out and other core guys starting to get expensive, the time is now for the Brewers.

    Now all they need is someone for Greinke to throw to.

    Comment by sbmke — December 19, 2010 @ 11:05 am

  6. It’s official: Dayton Moore is brain dead.

    You trade one of the best pitchers in the history of your franchise for “tools.”

    Comment by MC — December 19, 2010 @ 11:06 am

  7. Escobar was BA #12 last spring and they said he had the potential to be O-Cab with a higher batting average and more steals.

    Saying he is the same “hitter” as Yuni is absurd.

    Comment by George Purcell — December 19, 2010 @ 11:15 am

  8. “their hitting is similar (they don’t)…”

    ???????????????

    Comment by Anon — December 19, 2010 @ 11:23 am

  9. Looks like a great trade for both sides. The Brewers made the right move once they figured out they couldn’t get anything for Fielder. Go for it now and then, worst case scenario, they get 2 draft picks for Fielder and then either move Greinke again next year, extend Greinke, or take 2 more for him. The NL Central is winnable and the Brewers figured that out and made their move.

    They need to offer something small to the M’s for either Brendan Ryan or Jack Wilson to shore up their SS position and use Betancourt as a utility IF.

    Comment by chuckb — December 19, 2010 @ 11:53 am

  10. I like the Brewers going for it. If they are not in contention in late July they can always trade Fielder for prospects (as it looks like they have very little chance of re-signing him.

    Comment by tonysoprano — December 19, 2010 @ 11:54 am

  11. Looks like MIL is going to make one last run at in Prince’s final year.

    I don’t think we’re going to see any trades for MLB stars that include draining your farm system of its top talent.

    Those days are long gone. Commenters need to stop evaluating trades as if organizations would give up their top 3 prospects for Grienke.

    As for the Royals …

    [1] They can finish last with or without Grienke.
    [2] Their MiLB talent is a couple years away from being ready to something in ML.
    [3] Grienke’s contract will be up by then.
    [4] He’ll leave via FA.
    [5] Might as well try and get some other young talent that is around the same development level of the MiLB talent, so that they can develop and perform at the same time, and under team control.

    That’s the only way teams like the Royals can go about it. The Royals don;t need draft picks so they can draft players 4 years away from ML. They need players that can play between now and 2 years from now.

    Comment by CircleChange11 — December 19, 2010 @ 11:58 am

  12. It was a win for both sides, despite the outcry we’re already hearing.

    Just because Greinke is worth an organization’s top three prospects doesn’t mean there’s an actual team out there who would do it.

    The Brewers basically just filled in their team needs with prospects they think have upside and can work for them in the near future.

    Their rotation is now able to compete in the NL Central. I’d say a Greinke-Gallardo-Marcum top end looks decent.

    The mentally fragile Greinke also gets his wish to play in another small-market. Missouri is only a couple states away from Wisconsin.

    Comment by DIVISION — December 19, 2010 @ 12:07 pm

  13. This is exciting news for the competitive balance of the NL Central.

    That’s nice little rotation the Brewers have to go along with the lumber they have in the middle of the order. Question is: do they have a bullpen worthy of winning the Central? And who is their shortstop going forward?

    On paper that looks like the best race in the NL. The Phillies seem way ahead of the NL East. The Giants may be in another dog fight to the end. This time with the Rockies and possibly the Dodgers.

    Pitching wins and teams in the win-now mode are stocking up.

    Comment by Scout Finch — December 19, 2010 @ 12:43 pm

  14. Was going to say the same thing, but you beat me to it.

    Comment by R M — December 19, 2010 @ 12:45 pm

  15. Fangraphs have really let me down in their analysis of Escobar. Your site literally taught me about the value of BABIP, now you’re saying a player with a .264 BABIP in his only season in the bigs “cant hit”. Um, excuse me????

    Comment by PL — December 19, 2010 @ 12:55 pm

  16. Every team in the NL West except the Giants has gotten better this offseason, if SD gets Derrek Lee, they improved so much at 2B, SS & CF the loss of Adrian won’t be as bad as initially thought.

    Comment by PL — December 19, 2010 @ 12:57 pm

  17. He also had an ISO of .091 and and a 6.5% BB. Yes it was his first full season, but he sucked.

    Comment by Koch — December 19, 2010 @ 1:02 pm

  18. “As Drabek and Snider were the asking price, and the they may have as much upside as anyone in baseball,”

    No, they don’t.

    Comment by Koch — December 19, 2010 @ 1:03 pm

  19. Great post CC11, the Royals are so far away (2013) from having their 40 or so excellent prospects start to trickle up, its pointless to trade Greinke for another star or for 2 prospects. I really do not think they could do better than this.

    I do know I’d rather have these 4 guys than Saunders, Skaggs, Rodriguez & Corbin, which was the “haul” AZ got for a similar pitcher in Dan Haren. Skaggs & Corbin are nice prospects, like Odorizzi & Jeffress, but Saunders & Rodriguez are downright awful, I’m taking Cain & Escobar 10 times out of 10 over those two.

    Comment by PL — December 19, 2010 @ 1:04 pm

  20. I like this trade for both teams. The value of Grienke for the Brewers is obvious. They now have a rotation that can compete with the Cards and Reds. Definite downgrade at SS, especially long term, but they’ll worry about that later.

    Just a year ago, Escobar was an overall top 20 prospect. You can’t give up an a guy like that after a rookie year of adjustment. Not every all-star caliber player comes in and plays like that his first year. Go look up the rookies stats of other similar all-star shortstops historically. A lot of them weren’t as good. Plus fielding shortstop prospects don’t just grow on trees. I’d like to see a list who have been in MLB 1 year or less who can play the position now.

    CF’s who can play plus D are a little more plentiful, but not by very much. Cain looks like a guy who can be a plus on both D and O at the position.

    The fact that both of them fill holes in the armada of prospects the Royals have lined up and its a doubly good deal for them.

    Add in the pitchers, and I think the Royals got great value. I like this package better than what SD got for AGone.

    As a Giants fan who defended Sabean for several years before the Giants won it all, I can see much the same dynamic in KC with Dayton Moore. IMO, far from being the idiot that conventional wisdom is calling him, I think he’s done a great job of sticking to his guns and is building a monster team for the near future.

    Comment by DrBGiantsfan — December 19, 2010 @ 1:09 pm

  21. How is Escobar any different to Elvis Andrus, who everyone wets their pants over? All I’m saying is, give Escobar a .320 BABIP and people won’t be putting him in the Betancort comparison pile.

    Comment by PL — December 19, 2010 @ 1:10 pm

  22. You’re kidding, right?

    Comment by DrBGiantsfan — December 19, 2010 @ 1:16 pm

  23. “As a Giants fan who defended Sabean for several years before the Giants won it all”

    You write this like you are bragging that you knew all along the Giants would win a WS. You realize SF won it all by pure luck like acquiring Cody Ross for the sole reason of preventing SD him getting him? He hits 5 HR in the playoffs, Giants win. Sabean is still completely awful at trading and signing FA’s. Imagine if the Giants had spent $126MM on, I dunno, a Matt Holliday? They would be actually good instead of relying on castoffs to get hot in October. SF has not improved their team this year and wont be relevant in 2011. You cant catch lightning in a bottle twice.

    Comment by PL — December 19, 2010 @ 1:16 pm

  24. No, he didn’t suck! He was a plus fielding shortstop, not an easy thing to find these days. Look up the first 2-3 year stats for Dave Concepcion and Omar Vizquel for comparison. The hitting will improve. The D, which is already plus, should also improve with experience.

    Comment by DrBGiantsfan — December 19, 2010 @ 1:18 pm

  25. Yes, as a matter of fact, I did. Luck is the residue of design. While everybody was screaming for Sabean to be fired, he was quietly building a homegrown pitching staff that’s the best in baseball plus Buster Posey. THAT is why they won the World Series and why they will compete for more WS championships in the future, not the fungable FA’s he signs to fill out the roster.

    Comment by DrBGiantsfan — December 19, 2010 @ 1:22 pm

  26. Just saw a blub in the Milwaukee paper that Escobar can’t even put up a .300 OBP in the winter leagues. Heck he’s under .250 OBP.

    If I was KC, I’d be concerned that he’s going to hit enough to stay in the lineup, even with his glove.

    As a Brewer’s fan I’m happy with the deal.

    Comment by Tom — December 19, 2010 @ 1:50 pm

  27. Actually, I’d wouldn’t mind being a Royals fan right now, they are a year of two away from being a monster team.

    Comment by DrBGiantsfan — December 19, 2010 @ 1:56 pm

  28. I’d just point out that Escobar was Milwaukee’s #1 prospect last year and the pitchers are #1 and #2 in BPs write up this year. And Cain.

    Comment by George Purcell — December 19, 2010 @ 2:20 pm

  29. Andrus is much better than Escobar. In the minors he had around 11 more walks while having at least a thousand less PA all while playing at a younger age than Escobar. Both of them hit for around a .080 ISO.

    They’re both low power good fielding SS’s, but Andrus has a pretty solid walk rate which gives him a good OBP. Escobar hasn’t shown he’s capable of doing that. That’s probably why Andrus gets all the praise – he’s younger, and he does a much better job of getting on base.

    Comment by Mark — December 19, 2010 @ 2:25 pm

  30. So basically, the only way your opinion can be wrong is if it’s not foiled by pure luck. That seems to be a common method here, especially when “dumb teams win”.

    The Giants won the WS because they’re pitching staff shut down other team’s offenses. Paint it anyway you want to, but in any playoffs, a starting rotation of Lincecum, Cain, Sanchez, and Baummy is going to be tough to beat. The worst offense in the majors scores 3+ runs a game, so the SFg aren’t going to need a top 10 (in MLB) offense to get the job done.

    5 out of the last 6 WS have been won by “dumb teams”, and all 6 teams still havea reasonable chance at winning their division in 2011.

    Damn that pure luck.

    Comment by CircleChange11 — December 19, 2010 @ 2:51 pm

  31. Also did anyone notice that SFG offered Renteria a 1M/1y contract? Makes me wonder if my Cardinals are going to re-acquire him for 3 years too many?

    That seems like a very “smart” move, given his age and the SFG’s surplus.

    One would have thought that Sabaen would have given Renteria a 60M/4y contract, based on the comments here. Just sayin.

    IMHO, the Giants are playing it very smart, after winning the WS. I know I am repeating (but hey, that’s my style), but they are signing players to short contracts, allowing them to see where they really will be in 2011 and 2012, rather than just thinking this is their dynasty and locking up players for longer than they should.

    Basically, they’re doing the opposite of Philly.

    I hate the SFG, but the representation of the SFG here at FG is exagerrated and biased.

    Comment by CircleChange11 — December 19, 2010 @ 2:57 pm

  32. Monster? Royals?? How they must pine for Bret Saberhagen & George Brett.

    Comment by Scout Finch — December 19, 2010 @ 3:04 pm

  33. I read a Giants’ prospect review by John Sickels about a month or so ago which said Giants first base prospect Brandon Belt is the #2 1B prospect behind the Royals’ Eric Hosmer.

    Judging by the SF buzz around Belt, Royals fans must be excited.

    Any thoughts?’

    Comment by Scout Finch — December 19, 2010 @ 3:17 pm

  34. It will be bad. But they have the pitching to compete so it would be ludicrous to count them out. I’d say it all hinges on how much production they get out of the Will Venable and Chase Headley’s of the squad.

    Comment by Scout Finch — December 19, 2010 @ 3:21 pm

  35. Thank you, CC11. A agree completely. For a site that loudly condemns conventional wisdom, Fangraphs writers and a lot of readers are having a very tough time getting past the CW on Brian Sabean. Looks like Dayton Moore has a tough row to hoe with this crowd too. I guess assembling the best farm system in baseball doesn’t buy you much cache’ here. Signing $20 M/year FA’s is what gets you noticed.

    Comment by DrBGiantsfan — December 19, 2010 @ 3:24 pm

  36. Any Royals fan who knows anything about drafting and farm systems has to be as excited as hell about the future of their team and should be pretty darn happy about this trade which fills in the few holes that existed in the farm system. It’s not just Hosmer. He, Moose Tacos, Wil Myers and Montgomery are all grade A prospects and there’s a whole slew of grade B’s to back them up.

    Comment by DrBGiantsfan — December 19, 2010 @ 3:28 pm

  37. Let’s just compare the return KC got in this deal with getting two draft picks.

    If a late first rounder plus a supplemental pick(the best case scenario) turned out to be either Escobar + Cain or Jeffress+ Odirizzi(heck, make any combination of two out of the 4, that would be a pretty darn good outcome for those draft positions. KC basically got double the value.

    Comment by DrBGiantsfan — December 19, 2010 @ 3:31 pm

  38. Took me a second, but I got it. I giggled.

    Comment by MC — December 19, 2010 @ 3:40 pm

  39. And probably neither prospect will be in KC’s top 10-15 this year.

    Comment by Jeff Zimmerman — December 19, 2010 @ 3:50 pm

  40. A monster team *if and only if* everything breaks right and everyone develops to the level that’s expected. With so, so much young talent aboard, the chances of that happening are nil. (Not saying they won’t be much improved, but there aren’t 95-win seasons in the near future either)

    Comment by Jason B — December 19, 2010 @ 4:43 pm

  41. “Looks like Dayton Moore has a tough row to hoe with this crowd too. I guess assembling the best farm system in baseball doesn’t buy you much cache’ here.”

    It’s been well pointed out that there are things that Moore can do well (identify and assemble minor league talent) and things he cannot do (identify and acquire useful pieces already in the majors without tripping all over the near-worthless detritus of other teams).

    We all can’t agree on much, but I think these two things are pretty conclusive by an exhaustive track record backing each.

    Comment by Jason B — December 19, 2010 @ 4:48 pm

  42. Yeah, I don;t think KC can expect a TB type team where the young guys go out and win 90+ games.

    But, I think they can wait and see if the young guys are a ponential 80ish win team … and then decide if a couple mid-level FA signings might bump that up to 85-88, which in the AL Central in 2012 could put you right in the middle of it.

    KC has shown, in the past, that when they are able to get their young talent to develop together AND keep them in KC, they can put together a team that can win for a decade (mid 70s to mid 80s). However, the situation has flipped and they won;t likely be able to keep a core of really solid players together while infusing young talent to sustain competitiveness. But, they might be able to give the Central some heck for 3-5 years. Better than what they’ve been getting.

    Comment by CircleChange11 — December 19, 2010 @ 4:49 pm

  43. KG has them at 8 and 9, actually.

    Comment by George Purcell — December 19, 2010 @ 4:58 pm

  44. Actually, Greinke may not be as mentally fragile as many people believe. Read Joe Posnanski’s column on Greinke (Joe Blogs, December 16, 2010).

    Comment by Gary York — December 19, 2010 @ 5:18 pm

  45. Let’s jump back from the conclussions we’ve all jumped to.

    I, like everyone else everywhere with a half-decent brain, figured Prince was on his way out of town, most likely this offseason, or mid-season, or walking for draft picks after the 2011 season. However, Prince’s stock isn’t looking so hot. The one year rental for 2011 isn’t cheap, and after the season he’ll be looking for a long term deal averaging more than $20 million per year. I don’t think many teams will be looking to pay that much for a defensively below-average first baseman, no matter how well he can hit.

    I don’t know that the Brewers will be able to keep him, but it is seeming a lot more possible now. It would’ve been nice if the Brewers had refrained from resigning Hart to a new deal, but still, keeping Prince is still a possibility.

    Comment by STEALTH — December 19, 2010 @ 5:28 pm

  46. Anyone who would indicate the Royals are setup to be “A Monster” in a year or two clearly has not watched a ton of baseball over the last 100 or so years.

    I’ve seen more “cant miss prospects” flame out, than flourish. While I would agree that they (KC) certainly have solid potential at each and every position now, I would be shocked if more than 4-5 of their top 15 prospects become above average Major Leaguers.

    All the rest will likely result in below average production, or worse. It is just the way things work out. Its the same reason the large market teams spend billions, in combination with their young players. As a Red Sox fan, Ive seen it for years…and even recently, as Theo has built up their system to its strongest level since the late 70′s…they still need to supplement their lineup and rotation with high-priced filler.

    Even as homegrown players such as Pedroia, Ellsbury, Youkilis, Lester, Buchholz, Bard, Lowrie, etc, etc….are all either pre-arb, arb-eligible, or signed to team friendly contracts (covering arb years and some FA seasons), they have still spent $17-18mil/yr on John Lackey and Josh Beckett, $14mil/yr on JD Drew, over $20mil annually on Crawford, and (soon to be) another $20-23mil per on Gonzalez. It simply is a necessary evil to be able to maintain a playoff-competitive team with any consistency.

    For a team like the Royals, the margin of error is razor thin, and thats just to compete for even one season. They essentially have to build for years, in order to take their shot for one season. The perfect mix of afforable young players and crafty (and obviously affordable) FA signings is required, and even then, most of the time…things dont pan out. The only team that seemingly is the exception to the rule is the Twins, but recently…even they are up around $100mil for theur payroll. The Rays have been able to accomplish it twice in (3) years, but one year was complete luck…as their plan was laid out to compete last year…and then have to break it down.

    Look, as a Red Sox fan, I recognize people hate big-market baseball…and Im not black-hearted. I enjoy seeing small market success stories take it to the big guys, and occasionally be able to get by Big Brother with nothing more than sound decision making, and good old-fashioned guile. However, I am also realisitic, and that seems to be where we differ. To think that in today’s world, KC will be “A Monster” is absolutely absurd. In fact, if they make the playoffs even once in the next 5,6,7 years (name whatever timeline you want), I would have to consider it a success; maybe not a triumph, but mildly successful. I also have to think that Dayton Moore would agree with me, and hopefully most KC fans would agree as well. Its a shame, but its the reality of the system. I think that one (playoff) performance per decade should be considered average, and anything better than that, a success.

    I hope Im wrong, and all their players end up being stars, and they can make a 3-4 year run at it…but history indicates the odds are heavily stacked against it.

    Comment by SoxFan — December 19, 2010 @ 7:17 pm

  47. Circle n’ Sox – agreed. That’s what I was getting at; they have some promising talent, but that’s not at all a guarantee that any or all of them will pan out, or that they’ll have success as a team. But it should be brighter days ahead of ‘em than it has been behind ‘em, at least in the near past.

    (Particularly if Dayton doesn’t saddle them with no-upside, nightmarish signings and/or trades – Guillen, Yuni, Francoeur, Kendall, etc etc etc etc)

    Comment by Jason B — December 19, 2010 @ 11:13 pm

  48. Well folks, for what it’s worth, Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus is calling the Royals’ farm system “the best I’ve ever seen.”

    Although the Red Sox have had some good prospects over the years, they’ve never had a “perfect storm” like the Royals’ are brewing right now. Neither did Tampa Bay, as good as they have been.

    Comment by DrBGiantsfan — December 20, 2010 @ 12:43 am

  49. Jason,

    When weighing the relative importance of building the world’s best farm system and filling out the roster with fungible FA’s, it’s about 90/10 in favor of the farm system. Plus, Dayton has never had a team where signing free agents meant anything more than having the worst record in baseball or the 3′rd worst.

    The test will come when he gets a young core of homegrown players together at the MLB level and what pieces he acquires to fill in the blanks. Of course, today’s trade leaves him with a lot fewer blanks to fill in.

    I’m betting that, like Brian Sabean, Dayton Moore will be the one getting the last laugh here.

    Comment by DrBGiantsfan — December 20, 2010 @ 12:52 am

  50. Yovanni, Greinke, and Marcum. That is a very solid top 3 I guess the brewers team ERA will be under 5 this year. With the brewers offense and pitching that isn’t atrocious they are serious contenders.

    Comment by adohaj — December 20, 2010 @ 5:11 am

  51. [...] [...]

    Pingback by Daily Links – Theo Epstein Lovefest 2010 Edition — December 20, 2010 @ 11:15 am

  52. It’s really easy to take shots at a GM if you leave out the good things. Sabean was ripped mercilessly by the entire blogosphere this time last year, a complete joke.

    @Jason B: First, those signings spent the owner’s money during a period where they had no chance to compete (including 2011). In their situation, if he wants to write the check, so be it.

    Although you’re wrong about Yuni. Cortes turned into a middle reliever as most scouts predicted. They paid him almost nothing while they had him and just flipped him for an upgrade.

    And now let’s not forget the Grienke signing. Yes, that’s right, Dayton signed Zack to the current deal BEFORE the Cy Young season. I think it’s pretty reasonable to say the two years left on that deal alone got them Jeffress (not to mention that the CY season happened in the middle of the renovated stadium year, which didn’t hurt interest and attendance).

    Then there was trusting a scout to pluck Soria, and sign him to probably the most team friendly deal in all of MLB, making him still dirt cheap through option years through 2014.

    Yes, there have been a lot of bad deals and signings, but he hit a few grand slams that, in addition to building the best scouting and development department in MLB (results speak for themselves), have put them in position to reach critical mass on talent. We’ll see how it turns out, but that’s a much better strategy (if you could call it one) than they employed for twenty years before he arrived.

    Note that I’m not even a big Dayton fan.

    Comment by Paul — December 20, 2010 @ 11:48 am

  53. Yep.

    Comment by Paul — December 20, 2010 @ 11:50 am

  54. I don’t live there anymore, which is actually useful to gauge what the feelings is on this. Seems to me from a recent visit that the media is generally playing down the farm system. It is really hard for traditional media to talk about prospects all the time (I’m referring to comments by talk radio people, and talk radio is very big there). Most fans know they have a good farm system, but really don’t know the extent of it, or what to really think about it.

    But when Goldstein says that Odorizzi would be #8 on his revised Royals Top 11, when he was #1 in the Brewers system (after Lawrie was dealt), those of us who use the intertron have to be pretty impressed.

    I should note regarding this trade that while Jeffress is the fourth guy, he is not only very talented in the abstract, he fills a niche in the organization right now. They have a slew of big bullpen arms, both righties and lefties, but nobody with his caliber of stuff. If he puts it together, they have him for two years after Soria’s deal is up, and he’s a year younger than Cain and Escobar (if they need to sign those guys after that, it’s a sign these prospects disappointed). Soria will be 30 at the end of his deal and if he continues to perform they will look to keep him. They have a legitimate chance to have the back of the bullpen completely locked up for a decade and on good terms, plus they have a bunch of big arm guys for the middle innings. They will have zero need to go get guys like Farnsworth or Cruz during that stretch, which for them at least is a big step.

    I’m less sanguine about the position players. The high caliber prospects must become stars. If they settle even as useful Butler-like players, they simply will not be able to compete in the AL. Even with Cain, there are huge question marks in the OF. This is a big year for Gordon and even Brett Eibner. Next June is a big draft, Bubba Starling or George Springer would answer a lot of questions, but there are so many big arms in the draft.

    This deal helps, no doubt. Once Grienke actually requested the trade I thought they would get a lot less. Kudos to the Brewers for seeing an opportunity because I’ll bet the Royals received numerous lowball offers right after that story appeared, and Milwaukee smartly offered fair value.

    Comment by Paul — December 20, 2010 @ 12:11 pm

  55. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-new-inefficiency

    the giants built an excellent staff and then got some older bats on low risk contracts. seems pretty smart to me, actually.

    Comment by dutchbrowncoat — December 20, 2010 @ 12:40 pm

  56. Wow the Royals rotation looks like it’s going to suck. It’ll be interesting to see how much having a good defensive team will improve the pitching overall.

    Rotation:
    1) Hochevar
    2) Davis
    3) Mazarro
    4) O’Sullizan
    5) Duffy / Teaford

    That doesn’t look pretty. Best ERA of the bunch may be 4.50

    However, I believe the Royals had the worst defense in baseball by like 50 runs.
    It appears that the Royals could have plus defenders at every position next year, unless Melky plays.

    Even with the 5 WAR Greinke added to the Royals last year. Not having Melky in CF and not having Yuni at SS is probably a wash in terms of WAR for 2011. Throw in Brayan Pena instead of Jason Kendell and the 2011 Royals will out perform the 2010 Royals even without Zack.

    Plus, they are a very athletic young team. They should be fun to watch. What’s not fun to watch is pitchers that struggle with control and bad defense. At least we won’t have those problems next year. (Except maybe Kyle Davis)

    Comment by mcneo — December 20, 2010 @ 12:53 pm

  57. Come on, DrB, Moore is worse than Sabean! I’ll wager heavily on ‘the Royals are contenders for many more years to come’ (if ever, maybe never).

    Comment by merizobeach — December 20, 2010 @ 2:18 pm

  58. Ugh, typo, apologies, All:

    “‘the Royals are !!NOT!! contenders for many more years to come’”

    Comment by merizobeach — December 20, 2010 @ 2:20 pm

  59. “When weighing the relative importance of building the world’s best farm system and filling out the roster with fungible FA’s, it’s about 90/10 in favor of the farm system. Plus, Dayton has never had a team where signing free agents meant anything more than having the worst record in baseball or the 3?rd worst.”

    If your farm players develop, you’re probably going to need to sign some FA’s to fill in the gaps and whatnot. If you weren’t able to make judicious signings as a 65-win team, I have zero confidence you’ll be magically better at making those judgments as an 85-win team.

    A consistently poor track record of targeting various train wrecks for acquisition via free agency or trades (Kendall, Guillen, Yuni, Failcoeur, etc etc etc etc) won’t magically get better just on its own accord. If you target the wrong skill sets (horrid on-base skills, for instance, which has been CLEARLY demonstrated) over and over, I don’t expect that light bulb will just suddenly come on because you’ve got a stronger farm system.

    Comment by Jason B — December 22, 2010 @ 3:16 pm

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