FanGraphs Baseball

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  1. Big drop off after the first 3 — like many systems the parts become somewhat interchangeable at some point. Other than Blaven where are the other guys they got in the Cliff Lee deal roughly ranked?

    Comment by Bingo — January 25, 2011 @ 11:15 am

  2. They don’t rank Smoak because he is at the MLB level now. Lawson projects to be a utility guy at best and Josh Leuke must be right behind these guys although I like his skillset better than Cortes…

    Comment by Josh — January 25, 2011 @ 11:56 am

  3. Yea, I’d like to know how close Leuke was to making this list.

    Comment by Chadam — January 25, 2011 @ 12:38 pm

  4. James Jones, where does he fall in your opinion,

    Comment by SF 55 for life — January 25, 2011 @ 12:47 pm

  5. It’s tough for me to think about Pineda’s prospect stock without a discussion of his struggles against lefties. Minor league lefties were OPSing ~.750 against him last year. His changeup needs to get better quickly or major league lefties will feast on him.

    Comment by JH — January 25, 2011 @ 12:47 pm

  6. Is there an attrition rate that’s assumed about the the estimated peak WAR numbers given? It seems ambitious to have most guys on the list be listed at 4-5 wins.

    Does this number really mean: “If they end up developing into a 90th percentile outcome of considering their potential, then they will peak at X WAR?” I assume it’s implied that half these guys will never be regulars in the majors, but it’d be great to see that written somewhere with a guess at that rate. Like having a % breakout or success rate to go along with peak WAR. I think this is just a little misleading.

    Of course scouting is about as far from an exact science as you can get, but having some measure of “blue chip” vs. “long shot” and anything in between, would be nice.

    Comment by Lee — January 25, 2011 @ 12:49 pm

  7. I’d probably see Jones around 12-14 range… I’m not as big a fan as others. Lueke is probably closer to the 15-20 range… I tend to be harder on relievers because their overall impact is much lower.

    Comment by Marc Hulet — January 25, 2011 @ 1:18 pm

  8. Cortes for sure and Robles in all likelihood will end up in the bullpen – is Lueke really that far behind both of them? Or do they both get the bump because they have been largely starters to this point?

    Comparing them as relievers to Lueke, I’m sincerely surprised that either of them would be ranked ahead of him.

    Comment by Ryan — January 25, 2011 @ 1:30 pm

  9. Whither Carlos Triunfel?

    Comment by Paco — January 25, 2011 @ 1:49 pm

  10. He tried and fell.

    Comment by Choo — January 25, 2011 @ 1:57 pm

  11. Where would Poythress rank?

    Comment by pbjelly — January 25, 2011 @ 2:03 pm

  12. Yeah, I don’t really see how Beavan ranks ahead of Lueke.

    Comment by Llewdor — January 25, 2011 @ 2:21 pm

  13. Agreed — “estimated peak WAR” seems to be more like a 90th percentile outcome rather than a generic “estimate,” but it would be nice to spell that out somewhere.

    PECOTA isn’t the end-all and be-all, but its probability bands are a really useful way of viewing prospects: 90th percentile/”ceiling”, 50th percentile/”realistic”, and maybe 25th percentile/”floor.” (You can’t use 10th percentile as “floor” because it tells you virtually nothing — 10% of even the super-elite prospects wind up amounting to nothing.)

    This seems to be some relative of the first of those, but it’s not quite clear how — and without knowing what the number is supposed to mean, it doesn’t really have much value.

    Comment by Chris — January 25, 2011 @ 2:26 pm

  14. What about Liddi where is he ranked this year?

    Comment by Locke — January 25, 2011 @ 3:17 pm

  15. Really glad to see an answer to this question, I’m Italian. So, what about Mangini? :)

    Comment by RaymanSK — January 25, 2011 @ 5:01 pm

  16. Is Smoak not considered a prospect anymore? If he was, where would he rank?

    Comment by Preston — January 25, 2011 @ 5:24 pm

  17. Smoak has too much major league service time to qualify for “prospect” status. If he didn’t, and I were writing this list, I’d have put him at #2, behind only Dustin Ackley.

    Comment by Ray — January 25, 2011 @ 5:58 pm

  18. Mark – just a suggestion for future systems updates:

    Would it be possible to add the 2010 system rank right next to (or below) the current rank. It would be nice to see how a team system is trending (as of course 2 data points = line = trend)).

    Comment by Joe — January 25, 2011 @ 6:59 pm

  19. And of course I should say Marc (not Mark)… since I can’t even spell your name right, feel free to ignore my suggestion.

    My apologies.

    Comment by Joe — January 25, 2011 @ 7:01 pm

  20. This commentary seemed a bit pessimistic on Ackley, given the kid was switching from the OF to 2B in his first year on a professional club. And doesn’t his raking in the AFL indicate that he adjusted well by the end of the year?

    Comment by Jay Stevens — January 25, 2011 @ 7:17 pm

  21. Well, there is the fact that because of his non-baseball related past, all other things being equal, Lueke is less likely to see MLB playing time than Cortes. To put it another way, barring injury, there is a great chance Cortes will see time at the major league level next year, but regardless of how he performs, I don’t think you can say the same thing about Lueke because of his past.

    Comment by MGP — January 25, 2011 @ 7:51 pm

  22. Hey Marc,
    No concern over franklins big righty/lefty splits?

    Comment by Tim E — January 26, 2011 @ 1:46 am

  23. Really ? I thought it was a pretty promising write up.

    What do you want Marc to say, the Ackley is ready to replace Cano/Utley as the best all around 2nd baseman in baseball?

    Comment by Lincoln — January 26, 2011 @ 10:25 am

  24. You’re right; I re-read it, and it is pretty positive. I think I had his organizational ranking and estimated peak WAR stuck in my head, and disagree that Pineda is a better prospect, tho’ I admit that’s quibbling.

    MLB.com ranked Ackley as the #5 prospect in all of baseball, ahead of guys like Montero, Moustakas, and Hosmer and Pineda (#13). That’s probably a little high….

    Comment by Jay Stevens — January 26, 2011 @ 5:36 pm

  25. *Pretends to be Marc*

    Franklin hasn’t had that many professional PAs against lefties, plus I’m not sure he’s even shaving yet. Too early to be concerned, but it’s probably something he is focusing on as he gears up for ST.

    Comment by Choo — January 26, 2011 @ 7:57 pm

  26. It would be interesting if someone could (perhaps has?) come up with a metric to measure the probability of MLB success of various categories of prospects. It couldn’t possibly be highly accurate but it might offer some unbiased guidance as to how different class/types of players can be judged.

    Comment by maqman — January 30, 2011 @ 12:01 pm

  27. I think somebody missed the boat. Vinnie Catricala, now with the High Desert Mavericks in his third season, is a great line drive hitter with decent power. And can play 1st, 3rd, and the outfield.

    Comment by Pat Henretty — April 15, 2011 @ 8:31 am

  28. Not sure people missed the boat on Catricala. From guys I’ve talked to, everyone seems to like him, and when I saw him last year, he is a good hitter. In fact some guys have him as a “sleeper” to watch. That doesn’t mean he warrants a top 10 however. If there is anything wrong with that list, it is probably Beavan. His upside isn’t enough in my opinion to warrant even a spot ahead of Josh Lueke.

    Comment by johan — April 16, 2011 @ 2:07 am

  29. How is that you still have Ackley’s name misspelled on here?

    Comment by JamesDaBear — June 14, 2011 @ 11:03 pm

  30. Hard to really get much out of stats at High Desert.

    Comment by JamesDaBear — June 14, 2011 @ 11:17 pm

  31. how did you forget about Greg Halman? He should be in the top 10 for sure, I’d put him behind Ackley

    Comment by unlegit website — July 2, 2011 @ 9:41 pm

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  34. I suspect Jose Campos benefited from the publicity generated by the Jesus Montero/Michael Pineda Pineda trade. Had Campos not been traded, the 19-year-old righthander would probably have ranked in the bottom five (or six) of Seattle’s top 10 prospects (not unlike FanGraphs’ No. 9 ranking of Hector Noesi in the Yankee organization a year ago).

    Comment by harmony — February 24, 2012 @ 6:22 pm

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