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  1. I like the analysis, but it made me wonder something about arbitration estimations. Is there a place I can read about the typical value awarded or negotiated in arbitration? You state 40/60/80 above, but where can I read about this and the methodology behind finding this?

    Comment by Dash — January 13, 2011 @ 1:46 pm

  2. Please tell me you meant your projection had Raburn with a .344 OBP, not .444

    Comment by Clark — January 13, 2011 @ 2:19 pm

  3. your projection system ended up with a wOBA, BA, and SLG that made sense so I guess it doesn’t really matter, but how did you end up with a .444 OBP? The wOBA was fine, so I guess your system “worked” overall, but the OBP component is all kinds of crazy. He is not going to walk like 200 times!

    Comment by phoenix2042 — January 13, 2011 @ 2:30 pm

  4. “Raburn is probably good enough to start as a stopgap for a Tigers team with designs on contention, and is at least a good and inexpensive fourth outfielder for them.”

    I feel like no matter what the Tigers do, no credit is ever given to them on this site by the editors. Fans predict 281/.338/.452. I’m sure a lot of teams would like to have a LF like this that is probaly good enough to start as a stop gap.

    Comment by benzilla — January 13, 2011 @ 3:20 pm

  5. Do you mean “left-handed pitchers” here: “Some will point out that the right-handed hitting Raburn has seen a disproportionate number of left-handed hitters in the majors.” ?

    Comment by jhull — January 13, 2011 @ 3:49 pm

  6. Actually, it was supposed to be .333, but my contract with FanGraphs stipulates that every post I do must have multiple typos in it, no matter how many times I proofread it.

    Comment by Matt Klaassen — January 13, 2011 @ 4:01 pm

  7. Uh, maybe it didn’t come across strongly enough, but I think at least the last sentence (as well as the first paragraph) are pretty clear that the Tigers did quite well for themselves with this deal.

    Comment by Matt Klaassen — January 13, 2011 @ 4:02 pm

  8. See contract stipulation mentioned above.

    Comment by Matt Klaassen — January 13, 2011 @ 4:02 pm

  9. I know this has been backed up by research, but is so widely accepted now that I’m not sure who originally did it. Tom Tango, perhaps? Anyone else know?

    Comment by Matt Klaassen — January 13, 2011 @ 4:03 pm

  10. See my response to Clark above.

    …although he get pretty close to 200 walks if plays in 20 Kyle Davies starts.

    Comment by Matt Klaassen — January 13, 2011 @ 4:05 pm

  11. huh?

    Comment by jhull — January 13, 2011 @ 4:19 pm

  12. Gotcha. I re-read the article twice before re-reading the comments.

    Comment by jhull — January 13, 2011 @ 4:22 pm

  13. Click this link:

    Comment by Matt Klaassen — January 13, 2011 @ 4:28 pm

  14. The problem, which you probably know, is you’re reading what’s in your head, not what you’ve typed out… Let someone else proof read your work.

    Comment by Frank — January 13, 2011 @ 4:57 pm

  15. I know Bradbury cites it in Hot Stove Economics, and although I can’t remember where he gives credit, he does tend to recalculate a lot of already accepted stuff himself. Anyway, might be a clue in there somewhere.

    Comment by Mike H — January 13, 2011 @ 5:45 pm

  16. Understand. I have the same problem with work emails. Was pretty sure it was typo, otherwise your projection system would require serious recalibrating.

    Comment by Clark — January 13, 2011 @ 6:57 pm

  17. I agree with your general thought regarding the unfair nature of players being shuttled back and forth to the minors and arbitration status. Raburn may not be the best example for you to use to support it though. Part of the reason he is so late to arb is that he got into a severe rec vehicle accident back in 2002, messed up his hip, lost some athleticism, missed an entire yr of development at age 21/22 and had to change positions partly b/c of it.

    In my opinion that is the biggest reason he is just now making real big league money, not necessarily b/c of his back and forth minor league voyages.

    Comment by mscharer — January 13, 2011 @ 8:58 pm

  18. Isn’t that what the author said?

    I swear, some people on this site spend more time trying to find instances of bias against their preferred teams than in actually reading the articles.

    Comment by chuckb — January 14, 2011 @ 10:15 am

  19. Good information, I did not realize that. I’m not sure whether it changes my opinion (if a player with a major league contract misses a lot of time with injury, does the team get that time added to the contract?), but it’s good to think about. Thanks.

    Comment by Matt Klaassen — January 14, 2011 @ 10:32 am

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