FanGraphs Baseball

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  1. Are you taking Javier Vazquez in Round 2 again this year?

    Comment by lester bangs — January 20, 2011 @ 5:32 pm

  2. Who would ever do anything SO absurd?

    Just ridiculous.

    Comment by Carson Cistulli — January 20, 2011 @ 5:34 pm

  3. I thought it was Harden in the third round!

    Comment by dan woytek — January 20, 2011 @ 6:09 pm

  4. If Stanton puts up those numbers, he will be the NL MVP…. if you want to see those numbers, you’ll have to purchase the subscription… I highly recommend it.

    Comment by Matt — January 20, 2011 @ 6:21 pm

  5. Looking at Mauer’s WAR on FG, and using the WAR graph tool, it’s pretty clear FG drastically undervalues catchers.

    Comment by Barkey Walker — January 20, 2011 @ 7:37 pm

  6. MLB catchers have an average .311 wOBA, about .330 for the those with 81+ games started. There’s a lot of guys who catch but can’t hit. Compare to the average MLB 1b having a .357 wOBA, .377 for a starter. Therefor the few guys who can catch and hit well give their teams quite a bit of relative value.

    I do need to use the regressed fielding values in the projections, as I use regressed for batting and pitching. I did calculate that Simmons had +30 runs in 2010, and scouts have given him excellent evaluations, but we can not yet assume that he’ll stay at that level going forward. On the other hand, Jordy Freakin’ Mercer was +11 in 56 pro games in 2008, +27 in 137 games in 2009, and +23 in 142 games in 2010, so that looks legit. He just needs to find a replacement level bat, or he’ll be Ronnie Cedeno with an even better glove.

    Comment by Brian Cartwright — January 20, 2011 @ 8:22 pm

  7. Crawford’s numbers are absurdly low

    Comment by Grant — January 20, 2011 @ 8:57 pm

  8. Considering Wheeler is, at best, a fringe prospect, his inclusion makes me wonder about the entire list.

    Comment by Al — January 20, 2011 @ 8:59 pm

  9. Oliver’s MLEs of Wheeler’s performance

    Year LevelAge wOBA BA OB SA FR WAR
    2008 A 21 .273 .218 .286 .322 +11 -0.3
    2009 A+ 22 .311 .246 .327 .370 +4 +1.0
    2010 AA 23 .320 .257 .342 .366 +7 +2.1

    A 310-320 wOBA is slightly below average for a MLB SS, definitely below a starter, with a good but not great glove. But when his competition is Yuniesky Betancourt (.290 wOBA, -9 FR, -0.8 WAR) he should be a prospect.

    A 1-2 WAR player usually only starts for a lower tier team, but is good enough to be on a MLB bench. But when 2 WAR is the 3rd best position player on a team (trailing only Fielder and Braun) that’s not good (for the team).

    Comment by Brian Cartwright — January 20, 2011 @ 10:33 pm

  10. Weeks as well. Oliver has a playing time estimate, and THT has a team expert who constructs a depth chart. Oliver predicts 518 PA, brought down somewhat by Weeks injury shortened season in 2009, while the depth chart says 658 (but who wants to bet that Weeks stays healthy two years in a row). Throw in a -10 glove, and Weeks is 2 WAR +/- 0.5. If Betancourt does play SS, every infielder (Fielder, Weeks, Betancourt, McGehee) is brutal with the glove.

    Comment by Brian Cartwright — January 20, 2011 @ 10:48 pm

  11. When is John Eric Hanson’s Slapshot coming to fangraphs?

    Comment by Jim — January 21, 2011 @ 12:02 am

  12. wow, even cliff pennington is average or better? lol

    For a reality check, fangraphs has him as a top 5 shortstop in MLB.

    Comment by bSpittle — January 21, 2011 @ 12:03 am

  13. From what I have read, Wheeler’s weight is catching up to his projected wOBA and the question of whether he can stick at SS has expanded to whether he will become a bigger cult hero than Pablo Sandoval. If a 5-10, 230-pound SS sends Yuni to the bench, both questions answer themselves. But if he continues to eat himself into a corner, the answer is probably Dmitri Young.

    Comment by Choo — January 21, 2011 @ 3:01 am

  14. Did Drew Stubbs not just have a 3+ WAR year with his bat alone?

    Seems a bit harsh to lump him in with the all glove no bat guys, or was it a mistake?

    Comment by Paul — January 21, 2011 @ 3:51 am

  15. That is the highest rating on Derrek Norris I’ve ever seen. Man can get on base, and the power should be back with a healed wrist, but for a guy who has never played above High A, I’m curious about how he piles up the WAR.

    Comment by JCA — January 21, 2011 @ 9:56 am

  16. You forgot about Weeks (4ish), McGeehee (3ish), Hart (2.3) all better than 2.1

    Comment by Steven — January 21, 2011 @ 11:42 am

  17. Honestly, how are Stubbs and Pennington on your list? They can actually hit..

    Comment by Jim Lahey — January 21, 2011 @ 12:08 pm

  18. Brandon Crawford sighting!

    Comment by Azmanz — January 21, 2011 @ 1:46 pm

  19. The projected WAR is what the player is expected to produce in MLB, based on the MLEs of his past three seasons and his expected playing time (plus defense).

    In the past three seasons in the minors, Derek Norris compiled MLE WARs of 1.8, 2.3 and 1.9. As he will be only 22 in 2011, he still has room to improve by the aging curve. His peak is expected to be around 255/370/490. Not much batting average, a good amount of walksn and 25-30 HRs. A .370 wOBA is hard to find in a catcher, so that level of production would make Norris worth 3 to 4 WAR – a solid starter and maybe All Star.

    Drew Stubbs the past three seasons has had MLE wOBA’s of .300, .304 and .324, only last year’s approaching average for a MLB CFer, but he is tremendous with the glove, +12, +28 and +17 by my measure. Being 26 in 2011, Stubbs is expected to maintan this same level for the next few years.

    Brandon Crawford’s UCLA numbers did not translate well, a .379 wOBA there producing a .263 MLE. The past two yers in the minors he has MLE wOBAs of .290 and .287, barely above replacement for a MLB shortstop, but in those seasons has been +21 and +22 with the glove, which puts him at 2 WAR.

    Comment by Brian Cartwright — January 21, 2011 @ 6:54 pm

  20. “Eat himself into a corner” made me laugh out loud. I like the visual of him standing in a room, not allowed to be in the middle because of how fat he is. All while holding a first baseman’s mitt.

    Comment by Jason W. — January 21, 2011 @ 8:44 pm

  21. “of the Fan Projection project here at the site and its relative (if not rousing) success in Tango‚Äôs competition.”

    Not sure you can call finishing 10th out of 21 (in the Overall Results table) a “success” for teh Fan Projection project. Wouldn’t you expect the average projections of fans to be, well, average? I would define “success” for a projection system as some evidence that it is more useful than average.

    Comment by evo34 — January 21, 2011 @ 11:00 pm

  22. I think 10th out of 21 is quite an accomplishment. Sure, that’s roughly average, but it’s roughly average scored against some of the best, most complex projection systems available. I’d be one to call that performance a rousing success.

    From one point of view, the Fan Projections have a role similar to that of Marcel; they form a baseline behind which any rigorous projection system should not fall. If your projection system can’t beat Marcel (read: most simple computer projection) and the Fan Projections (read: simple aggregation of fan knowledge), then what information is your system contributing?

    In theory, all good projection systems should beat Marcel, and should beat the Fans. That the Fans performed so well tell us that either the Fans know more than we give them credit for or that projection systems are not as advanced as we would like to believe.

    Comment by Matthew Bultitude — January 23, 2011 @ 1:14 pm

  23. I would not count on them before mid-March.

    I have no idea how the process of getting them posted here will work. In particular, I don’t know if it’s reasonable to send a set of projections followed by updates. I’ll probably have my computer projections in mid-February (when I know where (almost) everyone is playing) and then I manually update for factors that I don’t have coded (generally things that I don’t have consistent data for) and playing time estimates. I never actually finish this process, but my one fantasy league has it’s auction on March 19 . . . so I should be 98% done and ready to share by then.

    Comment by JEH — January 24, 2011 @ 4:39 pm

  24. That’s amazing! I can’t wait.

    Comment by Jim — January 27, 2011 @ 6:50 pm

  25. I have my main league draft on the 12th of March. Any chance they’ll be up by then?

    Comment by Jim — January 27, 2011 @ 6:51 pm

  26. How is Sunnyvale?

    Comment by eric — November 17, 2011 @ 6:28 am

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