Mediocre Fenway stats too, which no one talks about.
Comment by lester bangs — January 31, 2011 @ 4:06 pm
True, but home/road splits are even more volatile than platoon splits, and hard to pin down to skill. This is especially true since hitters generally hit better at home than on the road, and Crawford will have Fenway as his home next season. Moreover, Crawford’s had 338 PA at Fenway from 2002-present, an incredibly small sample over that period of time.
Finally, Stat Corner’s component factors have Fenway as generally favorable to left-handed hitters, and the Trop is harder on them.
I believe MGL once pointed out (in reference to Curtis Granderson IIRC) that it is actually slightly preferable to have a player that is extremely deficient in one area as opposed to a player that has an equal all-around skillset. His reasoning was that you can actually leverage the deficiency by hiring a situational caddy and come out with more value that way.
I’m not suggesting that Crawford needs a caddy for “late and close” situations, but Mike Cameron ain’t too shabby against LHPs.
Unrelated to the point that Adam W brought up, but connected in that I read it in a piece by MGL – he claims that the best (and worst) baserunners can account for a half a win on the basepaths (up or down), though admittedly there are only a few with that level of impact, and 90th/10th percentile is probably. .2-.25 wins.
Does FG WAR take into account baserunning at all? Outside of SB/CS, obviously.
ps- without looking up the article, I BELIEVE the baserunning calcs MGL developed were not encompassing SB/CS – just pure baserunning. I think this because there weren’t speedsters at the top of the list, thought I could be wrong. It is worth checking out. He almost always is pretty solid with those types of numbers/values, and it’s enough of an impact to consider using in WAR.
It will be interesting to see how the Red Sox handle Crawford’s platoon split. Especially since the team is a bit lefty heavy anyway, so it might be hard to hide Crawford and limit other teams ability to put in LOOGYs by placing him in between two right handed hitters.
Can’t wait to see the uproar the first time that Craw is PH for late in a game or replaced in the starting lineup against a tough lefty. It should happen, but his ego has never allowed it. If he refused to move out of 2/3 slot against lefties with the Rays, what kind of noise is he going to make to sit on the bench in a big situation?
Why are we excluding SB and CS from the equation? Part of the batter/pitcher matchup is baserunning, and a good deal of Crawford’s offensive value comes from that (.337 vs .347 wOBA for his career). It’s harder to steal 2B off of a lefty, and Crawford’s baserunning stats reflect that. Versus lefties, he attempts steals less often and has a lower success rate. Taking baserunning into account would widen his L/R platoon splits.
In that case, no visiting player’s park stats should ever be mentioned on the road. The sample will never be big enough to matter. Crawford has be an in-division rival his entire career.
Then again, I expect Devil Rays (and former star Devil Rays) to constantly get the benefit of the doubt here. If Andrew Friedman burped into a tin can, there would be a hasty line to proclaim it “brilliant!”
Comment by lester bangs — January 31, 2011 @ 5:36 pm
Okay, Rays. I’m fining myself a dollar.
Comment by lester bangs — January 31, 2011 @ 5:37 pm
Crawford also hasn’t run as much, traditionally, from the No. 3 slot. He seems to make more sense batting first or second, but he doesn’t want to bat first (or hasn’t in the past) and it’s hard to hit him second given the lefty lean of the Sox and the need to space them out.
I wish a player with Crawford’s contract would do whatever’s asked, happily. He wasn’t that guy in Tampa.
Comment by lester bangs — January 31, 2011 @ 5:40 pm
Well, sadly, most of what is mentioned or shown on screen during baseball broadcasts or in mainstream media isn’t as significant as people think it is. Some of the dumbest thing managers do is bench good hitters who are say 0 for 10 against in favor of a poorer hitter who is like 6 for 10 against a certain pitcher.
It’s like they don’t know the math!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
also, he was usually facing some very good pitchers when in Fenway.
Comment by williams .482 — January 31, 2011 @ 6:28 pm
This is going to be a real problem for the Sox next year. They have to face a lot of tough left handed starters in the AL East; Price; Sabathia; Matusz; Romero; Niemen; maybe Pettitte. A lot of the guys in their lineup have a pretty drastic platoon split, which as you point out brings the LOOGYs into the game more often. And in a division where there will be three teams realistically looking to win 90 plus games they can’t afford to struggle in intradivision games.
who are say 0 for 10 against in favor of a poorer hitter who is like 6 for 10 against a certain pitcher.
It’s like they don’t know the math!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
That seems like a funny thng to say, given the stats presented.
Isn;t 6-for-10 better than 0-for-10? *grin*
What they don;t understand is the issue of sample size.
However, in some cases there may be more to it than just noise or sample size. A certain player may hit curveball pitchers well, and the other not or something to that effect.
This is where watching a player would have some advantage. If a guy just looks absolutely horrible against a certain pitcher, then maybe a change is due.
I always think back to the article where Mike Redmond owned Tom Glavine over 50+ At Bats. Obviously we’re talking small sample size here, and the conclusion is basically correct that it’s luck or randomness.
However, I wonder what scouting would say. Perhaps Redmond just has “changeup bat speed” or does well with lefties that live on the outside corner.
I’m just discussing at this point … but I wonder if in the near future we’ll have access to hitter’s stats on certain pitches and in certain counts? Certainly we’ll never likely accumulate enough sample size to have highly reliable data, but we’ll likely see guys that tee off on fastballs in the 92-94 range, and others that are horrific against curveballs when behind in the count and things of that nature.
We already track batter’s averages by count … the next step would be to track it by sequence and such.
Comment by CircleChange11 — February 1, 2011 @ 12:04 am
Crawford won’t be able to run on Varitek, V-Mart and Posada this year, and batting ahead of Youk, A-Gon and Papi, he may not be running as much. With his speed, he can score from 1B on a double, and Fenway is a doubles park. Also, at Fenway, even with his speed, scoring from 2B on a hard hit single to LF is no sure thing as LF’ers play in due to the wall. As such, a SB is not as valuable as it was with the Rays at Fenway, especially batting 3rd. If he leads off, he can run at will, but there will be some restraints on his running with the Red Sox batting 3rd, at least at Fenway.
One consequence of Crawford not hitting LHP’ers well and batting 3rd, is that the Red Sox lineup will probably look like this late in the game where a RHP’er started
A Loogy could come in to face Crawford, IBB Youk who crushes Lefties, and then stay in to face A-Gon, Papi, Salty and JD. Of course, Tito has Cameron to use to PH for Papi or JD. Salty is probably not much of a threat but Tito will want to break up the LHB’ers as Papi and JD do not hit LHP’ers well.
I frankly hate having Crawford bat 3rd as it means batting one of the best hitters in baseball batting 5th and costing him up to 40 PA over the season. Much of Crawfords WAR is defense and speed, he never impressed me much as a hitter (20% of his singles are IFH), and Fenway won’t help him much as he hits GB and LD to LF (and may lose a few LD hits and bloopers as LF’ers can play shallow), and his HR power to RF plays better at Tropicana than Fenway.
“but rather to look at Crawford’s likely opponents’ treatment of him in the past: have they been able to exploit him in high leverage situations in the past? ”
I imagine other teams reserved their Loogy for Carlos Pena who was susceptible to LHP’ers. As I pointed out, this may be quite different given the Red Sox LH heavy lineup at the heart of the order and with Crawford batting 3rd.
1) Because I was discussing the batter/pitcher matchup at the plate, 2) regressing basestealing is a different issue, 3) he isn’t useless once you consider his defense, so he shouldn’t necessarily be benched, 4) his splits are likely to regress, which means he isn’t even useless at the plate, 5) which makes pinch-hitting for him late usually inefficent and nonetheless.