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  1. Kind of bizarre to see Jair Jurrjens on the list of top 10 projected pitchers but not Cliff Lee.

    Comment by bill — February 8, 2011 @ 3:41 pm

  2. I am pretty sure Lee was #11, but yea, the list of pitchers was a little weird.

    Comment by Jeff Zimmerman — February 8, 2011 @ 3:43 pm

  3. For analyzing projections (and making them, for that matter), wouldn’t it make sense to make every stat a rate stat except for playing time? So look at proj vs actual HR/PA instead of total HR, for example. And it would tell you that Jurrjens would have nailed his Marcel proj for K had he started ~30 games instead of only 20. I guess at some point you just get down to the boring “true skill” numbers, but separating out playing time for projection analysis seems to make sense.

    Also, it would be nice if you could tidy up those Excel tables. They’re a little hard to read, the formatting isn’t consistent between the two, and you’ve still got the squiggly mispelling underlines (screencap?). Maybe Appelman could make a “Fangraphs” style for Excel tables and charts so that they are both well-formatted and easy for the writers to work with?

    Comment by Erik — February 8, 2011 @ 3:58 pm

  4. @ Jeff: All in all, the Marcels did pretty good. Check out the article here: http://www.fangraphs.com/community/index.php/comparing-2010-hitter-forecasts-part-2-creating-better-forecasts/

    Comment by Will Larson — February 8, 2011 @ 4:23 pm

  5. I know about both of them. I scheduled this article to be published and then he began cranking them out. It is some out them

    Comment by Jeff Zimmerman — February 8, 2011 @ 4:44 pm

  6. Think i’ll stick with Bill James.

    Comment by Anthony — February 8, 2011 @ 6:22 pm

  7. It’s because he started the season injured.

    Comment by Schu — February 8, 2011 @ 6:38 pm

  8. Yes. Separating out rate and playing time makes the most sense for a projection.

    Comment by Barkey Walker — February 8, 2011 @ 8:38 pm

  9. Jeff, you really should normalize the projections to their overall mean (weighted by actual playing time) and then compare them to the actuals normalized to their mean (also weighted by playing time).

    There is no way for a forecaster to know whether the stats for the whole league will be low or high in any given year, due to the weather, fluctuations in the construction of the baseball, PED use, a good or bad crop of incoming rookies, etc.

    The primary reason that the Marcels were low on wOBA for the top batters was NOT because they under-projected them – it was because Marcel uses the last 3 years of offense and pitching for its baseline and 2010 was an anomalously low-offense year. You cannot expect a projection system to know that, if it is due to something other than the talent and playing time of the players.

    Comment by MGL — February 9, 2011 @ 4:58 am

  10. I want to know what the reasoning behind not having Miguel Cabrera in the top 10 was because I certainly can’t think of one. Coming into 2010 he was just 26 years old and in his previous 6 seasons he averaged a .394 wOBA and was coming off of a .402 wOBA. So despite entering what most people consider the prime era of a hitter he was going to drop off from his career numbers after showing zero evidence that it might be a possibility? I find that highly unlikely.

    Comment by Dwight Schrute — February 9, 2011 @ 10:24 am

  11. I forgot to add that I was going to say maybe the explanation would be that they had concerns about him holding up because of his weight but that argument would go out the window after seeing Fielder and Sandoval on the list.

    Comment by Dwight Schrute — February 9, 2011 @ 10:25 am

  12. No pitcher projected to win more than 14 games?

    Comment by MV — February 9, 2011 @ 10:41 am

  13. Interesting to look back at the top 10 players, but it would be more interesting to me to see how the Marcels did at projecting a good fantasy team. Were there players who were way over- or under- rated compared to other projection systems? If you used the Marcels to put a team together, what was a likely outcome paired against other projection systems?

    Comment by omahablue — February 9, 2011 @ 1:31 pm

  14. That is weird. I think it’s probably because injury can cause a pitcher to win zero games, whereas there is no opposite phenomenon that could see him win 40. I think that depresses all projected win numbers.

    Comment by Bobby g — February 10, 2011 @ 12:07 am

  15. Being a somewhat statistics-based site, I was hoping for something done on a bit larger scale than taking a 10 player sample. Sure, 30 at the least, but with Excel and everything else, it would not have taken you more than another 5 minutes to give more quantitatively relevant date rather than just that of 10 position players.

    Comment by muRda — February 10, 2011 @ 2:14 am

  16. Marcel did pretty well:

    http://tangotiger.net/forecast/results2010.html

    Comment by tangotiger — February 10, 2011 @ 3:00 pm

  17. The post made the point on a smaller scale that a big scale post couldn’t.

    I’ve done it both ways for public consumption, on a grand scale, and on a small scale. Small scale sells better:

    http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/forecasting-2006/

    ***

    As an aside, it sounds like you are complaining that someone else didn’t do enough work. You can complain that someone did a bad job wasting your time (which in this case is not true). You can’t complain that someone didn’t do enough.

    Comment by tangotiger — February 10, 2011 @ 3:11 pm

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