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  1. WOah Hellickson and Matusz under Doug “Double” Fister?

    Comment by Kyle — February 14, 2011 @ 10:37 am

  2. I mentioned the Rays defense possibly playing a role in making defense-independent projections look weak(er) for Rays starters. Suspect Marcel also considers AL East in its FIP projections. It’s the toughest division to pitch in by a significant margin, and FIP does not (as far as I know, anyway) adjust for that.

    Thus Fister beats Hellickson and Matusz, even though the latter two obviously look like much better long-term picks on a competition- and park-neutral neutral basis.

    Comment by Jonah Keri — February 14, 2011 @ 10:39 am

  3. Santana over Wieters?

    Comment by SeanL — February 14, 2011 @ 10:41 am

  4. 2 Red Sox made the list – you’ve got Buchholz down as being on San Diego.

    Comment by Nate — February 14, 2011 @ 10:41 am

  5. Fixed the Red Sox thing, thanks.

    Sean: Marcel doesn’t like Wieters at all, projected .320 wOBA. Which, considering his results in his first 2 seasons in the majors, it’ not unreasonable to downgrade him, at least for the immediate future. (Though I’m with you, think he’ll be fine longer-term.)

    Comment by Jonah Keri — February 14, 2011 @ 10:46 am

  6. Since when did Clay Buchholz change teams?

    Comment by Jeff — February 14, 2011 @ 10:47 am

  7. I will run a sim tonight of NL Zero to Three vs AL Zero to Three. That way the roster can iron itself out in the comments.

    Comment by Xeifrank — February 14, 2011 @ 10:53 am

  8. What about Phil Hughes?

    Comment by Isaac — February 14, 2011 @ 10:53 am

  9. Wow. The NL certainly appears to have the better young talent.

    While, it’s likely not enough difference to shift the “balance of power”, but it can’t hurt.

    Comment by CircleChange11 — February 14, 2011 @ 10:56 am

  10. How come Jed Lowrie didn’t make the team?

    Comment by Judy — February 14, 2011 @ 10:57 am

  11. How did you treat cases like Brian Duensing? Marcel obviously predicts a split role between the pen and rotation again w/ fairly good results (4.00 FIP).

    Comment by John — February 14, 2011 @ 10:59 am

  12. Duensing’s projected FIP wouldn’t crack top 5 in rotation or top 6 in bullpen, so no issue. James McDonald also has a similar pretty solid projection largely due to getting the benefit of ample bullpen time. (Though I like McDonald a lot)

    Comment by Jonah Keri — February 14, 2011 @ 11:01 am

  13. Lowrie didn’t make the team because I generally tried to favor starters, or at least players likely to play more often than not. But yes, he’d be a great addition.

    Comment by Jonah Keri — February 14, 2011 @ 11:02 am

  14. I’m surprised that Brett Cecil couldn’t crack this squad.

    Comment by Big Jgke — February 14, 2011 @ 11:10 am

  15. I don’t think Hughes qualifies, too much service time.

    Comment by Judy — February 14, 2011 @ 11:29 am

  16. The Rays screwed over the AL team with those LTCs to Price and Longoria.

    Comment by Judy — February 14, 2011 @ 11:45 am

  17. Without a doubt

    Comment by Greg P — February 14, 2011 @ 12:10 pm

  18. Correct me if I’m wrong, but doesn’t Marcel also not work well for players with little or no Major League experience, due to it not using minor league stats? So guys like Hellickson aren’t really getting accurate projections if you’re basing this on Marcel.

    Comment by Matt — February 14, 2011 @ 12:15 pm

  19. What about Ricky Romero? (2 years)

    Comment by matt1101 — February 14, 2011 @ 12:25 pm

  20. 5 year deal = disqualified

    Comment by Xeifrank — February 14, 2011 @ 12:34 pm

  21. I believe even Marcels has Matusz at 3.92 (FIP) which would put him 2nd on the starting pitching list. And like others have mentioned Marcels is probably not the best projection system to use for players with minimal MLB stats, especially Hellickson. Here are the three projections on Fangraphs for Hellickson (FIP)

    Marcel: 4.08
    ZIPS: 3.58
    Fans: 3.52
    Bill James: 3.45

    This team will be significantly weaker without Hellickson in the rotation.

    vr, Xeifrank

    Comment by Xeifrank — February 14, 2011 @ 12:43 pm

  22. we can discount Ricky Romero for his team-friendly contract, but I don’t really get the point. Marcel projects him as better than any of those 5 SPs.

    Comment by Brendan — February 14, 2011 @ 12:46 pm

  23. Oh whoops, didn’t see that. Thanks

    Comment by matt1101 — February 14, 2011 @ 1:07 pm

  24. Matusz is disqualified for being on a major league contract (and thus not making league minimum), not for his projection.

    Comment by Jonah Keri — February 14, 2011 @ 1:35 pm

  25. point is: these guys make the min salary with only a one-yr committment. they are cheapo even compared to a reasonable deal like romero’s. (-different brendan)

    Comment by brendan — February 14, 2011 @ 1:39 pm

  26. Now the real question is; Would you take this roster over any roster in baseball?

    Comment by Joe — February 14, 2011 @ 1:52 pm

  27. Do you mean “any” or “every”? This team is obviously better than several teams out there, as we’re looking at a pitching staff (judged by FIP) in the top 5-10 of MLB and an offense in the same area as well (by wOBA). Combine that with oodles of good-to-great fielders and tons of depth on both sides of the roster and this team looks like one of the top teams in the regular season, but they may be hurt in the playoffs by lack of star power, especially in the rotation.

    Assuming you mean ignoring contracts and just as a 1-year experiment. If I was starting a new franchise and was given the option of having this team or taking the roster of another team, I would choose this in a heartbeat. Wouldn’t even blink.

    Comment by Terminator X — February 14, 2011 @ 2:36 pm

  28. but i’m pretty sure romero makes close to the min salary next year, and its not like he’s going to be released afterwards, just like these other pitchers.

    i understand it’s a ridiculous point to argue, because who really cares, but i’m slightly confused

    Comment by Brendan — February 14, 2011 @ 2:39 pm

  29. The “NL Zero to Three” roster done late last week would probably be the 2nd best team in the NL (1. Phillies). My simulation showed the Phillies beating the NZt3 team on average between 52 and 53 percent of the time.

    From the looks of it, the AZt3 team doesn’t look as strong as the NZt3 team. I will run a head to head sim of the two make believe teams tonight.

    If there is a consensus on a league average American League team, I can run the AZt3 team against them too (Angels?).

    Comment by Xeifrank — February 14, 2011 @ 3:01 pm

  30. Matusz signed a major league deal.

    Comment by SeanP — February 14, 2011 @ 3:43 pm

  31. –The team everyone’s picking to win the AL pennant, the Red Sox, places just two players on the team, set-up man Daniel Bard.

    You say two but only list one. Guess you’re still convinced that Buchholz is on San Diego.

    Comment by Neufeld — February 14, 2011 @ 3:59 pm

  32. Simulation Results

    NL Zero to Three
    vs
    AL Zero to Three

    See which team is stronger.

    Comment by Xeifrank — February 15, 2011 @ 12:50 am

  33. And for a reference, the AL Zero to Three team matched up against the LA Angels (a likely .500 team) won 51.77% of the games on average. So this AL Zero to Three team would be slightly better than a league average AL team. The NL Zero to Three team likely 2nd best in the NL, trailing only the Phillies.

    Comment by Xeifrank — February 15, 2011 @ 1:28 am

  34. Hello Everyone, First time poster and glad to be a part of the threaded!

    Comment by Sarah S — February 15, 2011 @ 8:53 pm

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