I mentioned the Rays defense possibly playing a role in making defense-independent projections look weak(er) for Rays starters. Suspect Marcel also considers AL East in its FIP projections. It’s the toughest division to pitch in by a significant margin, and FIP does not (as far as I know, anyway) adjust for that.
Thus Fister beats Hellickson and Matusz, even though the latter two obviously look like much better long-term picks on a competition- and park-neutral neutral basis.
Sean: Marcel doesn’t like Wieters at all, projected .320 wOBA. Which, considering his results in his first 2 seasons in the majors, it’ not unreasonable to downgrade him, at least for the immediate future. (Though I’m with you, think he’ll be fine longer-term.)
Duensing’s projected FIP wouldn’t crack top 5 in rotation or top 6 in bullpen, so no issue. James McDonald also has a similar pretty solid projection largely due to getting the benefit of ample bullpen time. (Though I like McDonald a lot)
Correct me if I’m wrong, but doesn’t Marcel also not work well for players with little or no Major League experience, due to it not using minor league stats? So guys like Hellickson aren’t really getting accurate projections if you’re basing this on Marcel.
I believe even Marcels has Matusz at 3.92 (FIP) which would put him 2nd on the starting pitching list. And like others have mentioned Marcels is probably not the best projection system to use for players with minimal MLB stats, especially Hellickson. Here are the three projections on Fangraphs for Hellickson (FIP)
Bill James: 3.45
This team will be significantly weaker without Hellickson in the rotation.
Do you mean “any” or “every”? This team is obviously better than several teams out there, as we’re looking at a pitching staff (judged by FIP) in the top 5-10 of MLB and an offense in the same area as well (by wOBA). Combine that with oodles of good-to-great fielders and tons of depth on both sides of the roster and this team looks like one of the top teams in the regular season, but they may be hurt in the playoffs by lack of star power, especially in the rotation.
Assuming you mean ignoring contracts and just as a 1-year experiment. If I was starting a new franchise and was given the option of having this team or taking the roster of another team, I would choose this in a heartbeat. Wouldn’t even blink.
Comment by Terminator X — February 14, 2011 @ 2:36 pm
but i’m pretty sure romero makes close to the min salary next year, and its not like he’s going to be released afterwards, just like these other pitchers.
i understand it’s a ridiculous point to argue, because who really cares, but i’m slightly confused
The “NL Zero to Three” roster done late last week would probably be the 2nd best team in the NL (1. Phillies). My simulation showed the Phillies beating the NZt3 team on average between 52 and 53 percent of the time.
From the looks of it, the AZt3 team doesn’t look as strong as the NZt3 team. I will run a head to head sim of the two make believe teams tonight.
If there is a consensus on a league average American League team, I can run the AZt3 team against them too (Angels?).
And for a reference, the AL Zero to Three team matched up against the LA Angels (a likely .500 team) won 51.77% of the games on average. So this AL Zero to Three team would be slightly better than a league average AL team. The NL Zero to Three team likely 2nd best in the NL, trailing only the Phillies.