FanGraphs Baseball

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  1. Does spring training affect these rankings? Since Thames and Lawrie have been decent so far.

    Comment by Matt — March 14, 2011 @ 1:22 pm

  2. Marc,

    Out of the 11-30, who would you say are the top few guys in terms of estimated peak WAR? Thanks

    Comment by John — March 14, 2011 @ 1:31 pm

  3. Regarding Deck McGuire: it’s Georgia Tech. There is no U. Just as there is no U in MIT or Cal Tech.

    Comment by Chris — March 14, 2011 @ 1:39 pm

  4. Kudos to you for having the balls to put Perez ahead of D’Arnaud. I think he’s been the better prospect all along this offseason, but folks are too afraid to go against popular opinion.

    Comment by Grant — March 14, 2011 @ 1:48 pm

  5. I’d be curious to hear more about Thames after his huge year.

    Comment by The_Beard — March 14, 2011 @ 1:51 pm

  6. A.J. Jimenez hit: .305 .347 .435 wOBA: .359 in A ball.

    Anthony Gose could be the next Carl Crawford if he learns how to hit a bit better. He has been said to be Ricky Henderson fast.

    Comment by jkljk — March 14, 2011 @ 2:01 pm

  7. Hes a bit old for AA and does struggle a lot against lefties.
    I wouldn’t mind him as a platoon outfielder though.

    Comment by jkljk — March 14, 2011 @ 2:02 pm

  8. Here here. Everybody sits there and talks about D’Arnaud’s bat as if its a sure thing, and I personally think its far from it. I think Perez is the total package.

    I will say this about the list. I think Arencibia at 3 is way too high. He is going to struggle at the major league level with all the swing and miss in his game.

    Comment by johan — March 14, 2011 @ 2:21 pm

  9. What’s the justification for Toronto over Atlanta and Philly? More depth? More star power?

    Comment by Andrew — March 14, 2011 @ 2:22 pm

  10. Top 30! I love it. Thanks, Marc.

    Comment by Big Jgke — March 14, 2011 @ 2:23 pm

  11. More depth. Arguable about the star power with Atlanta, but Toronto has just a ton of guys that with some development could explode. Aaron Sanchez, Murphy, Nicolino, Cardona and Syndegaard could really develop into top of the rotation type pitchers.

    Comment by johan — March 14, 2011 @ 2:27 pm

  12. Pretty Big indictment of the JP Riccirdi regime that Kevin Ahrens, Justin Jackson, and David Cooper are all off the top 30.

    Comment by Big Jgke — March 14, 2011 @ 2:31 pm

  13. Except for Cooper who is in the top 30. Whoops.

    Comment by Big Jgke — March 14, 2011 @ 2:33 pm

  14. I still like Lawrie over Drabek… When he finds a place defensively, I think he’ll be just fine… Even if he doesn’t develop the home run numbers accustomed with corner positions, I expect him to rack up lots of extra base hits and even solid walk rates. I think the power will come…

    Comment by baty — March 14, 2011 @ 2:35 pm

  15. Cooper has had a nice spring. Don’t count him out yet. I get your point though. Toronto does seem to be better off with AA.

    Comment by johan — March 14, 2011 @ 2:37 pm

  16. These WAR projections seem really generous compared to other teams

    Comment by Alan — March 14, 2011 @ 3:40 pm

  17. Gustavo Pierre has great upside, but is obviously far from it. Pilierre comped his body and upside to Hanley, but that’s going to be nearly impossible to live up to obviously.

    Comment by Jim — March 14, 2011 @ 3:40 pm

  18. hmm, outside of wojc (who i think will move to the bullpen) i don’t see much problem with it. Who do you think was graded generously?

    Comment by Eric — March 14, 2011 @ 3:47 pm

  19. I think Marisnick is gonna be a stud. Jay Bruce-type.

    Comment by Eric — March 14, 2011 @ 3:48 pm

  20. I don’t see that at all.

    Comment by Lewis — March 14, 2011 @ 3:56 pm

  21. Perhaps because this is the highest ranked system so far? I think it makes sense that they’d have a higher amount of aggregated WAR predicted.

    Comment by Noxage — March 14, 2011 @ 3:58 pm

  22. He could also be a total bust if his power doesn’t develop, or if he can’t cut down on his strikeouts, etc. The ceiling is there, but the level of risk is enormous. Personally, I’d take a guy like Eric Thames over him every time. While Thames may not have the ceiling Gose does, I’m more confident that Thames will develop into an above-average MLB player than I am that Gose will become an MLB caliber player, period. It all depends on how risk averse you are in your evaluations.

    Comment by Sean ONeill — March 14, 2011 @ 4:01 pm

  23. The demise of minorleaguesplits is quite unfortunate, but IIRC the platoon splits with Thames were overstated. I’m also not sure the age thing is that big a deal…he was 23, but was only in his 2nd full year of professional ball. He could make the MLB sometime this year, which would make him a 24 year old rookie…that’s not “old”, even by prospect standards.

    Comment by Sean ONeill — March 14, 2011 @ 4:04 pm

  24. I’m a little surprised to see d’Arnaud ranked higher than Gose- they both have to prove they can hit at a high level, but Gose is younger and has more tools than d’Arnaud. As an aside, when was the last time the Jays had a true stud prospect, top ten overall?

    Comment by gabriel — March 14, 2011 @ 4:14 pm

  25. Snider was in the top 10, I believe.

    Comment by SC2GG — March 14, 2011 @ 4:33 pm

  26. That was easy.

    Comment by Lewis — March 14, 2011 @ 4:48 pm

  27. Yes, but not unwarented, given how far off the map Ahrens and Jackson have fallen.

    Comment by patmccaw — March 14, 2011 @ 5:15 pm

  28. I guessing the “tempered enthusiasm” for Arencibia is because he just looks like another Miguel Olivo/Rod Barajas/Bengie Molina/John Buck/Ramon Castro .240/.280/.410 catcher.

    Comment by Peter Gentleman — March 14, 2011 @ 6:34 pm

  29. Keep in mind that the year he drafted Ahrens and Jackson, he also drafted Arrencibia, Cecil, Mills, and Rzepczynski. Not to mention Magnuson who was traded for Rajai Davis.

    Ahrens looks like a bust, but he was a high school risk that didnt pan out. It happens. It would still be hard to call that anything but a really good draft by JP. He’s definitely made some mistakes, but that years draft was not one of them.

    Comment by Dixon — March 14, 2011 @ 6:53 pm

  30. So relevant

    Comment by ICEYhawtSTUNNAZ — March 14, 2011 @ 7:23 pm

  31. .240 might be generous on the batting average. J.P is a hacker to me. Yeah, he has fantastic power at the catching position, but you got to hit it first.

    Comment by johan — March 14, 2011 @ 7:45 pm

  32. Small sample size in spring training, so I would guess not.

    Comment by Ree — March 14, 2011 @ 10:40 pm

  33. Sean, have to disagree on Gose busting if his power doesn’t develop. IMO, all he needs is one thing developing – getting his OBP obove .350 (easier said than done I know). Some parts of his game need refinement, but a true CF that can fly and has the arm of a RF is rare and valuable. It’s Thames who has numerous limitations and must hit with consistent power to keep an MLB job.

    Comment by JayTeam — March 14, 2011 @ 11:19 pm

  34. I was going to suggest Milb.com for split, but they only do current team, so his splits on there are for AFL only. Small sample, but no power at all. I believe it was Hulett who watched his BP in the AFL and thought he was really advanced at putting nice backspin on the ball. I’m watching him because he has the profile of one of those guys who really pops when everything comes together.

    Comment by Paul — March 15, 2011 @ 12:01 am

  35. the depth there is pretty incredible. 11-20 there could come close to matching some teams’ top-10s.

    heck, there’s guys in the 21-30 range there that are not just filler (I’m thinking Mastro and Jimenez in particular), but legit quality prospects with a very solid shot at being effective MLBers.

    I like Gose a little more than this list shows, though with all the depth here every list varies so much between 1-20 it just goes to show how this system is pretty much impossible to rank.

    Though I have to say that while I can see some reasons for 9 of the guys ranked ahead of Gose, I have a hard time seeing any reason to rank Hech ahead of Gose.

    Comment by everdiso — March 15, 2011 @ 12:41 am

  36. Marc,

    I’d love to hear your thoughts on Cardona. I know he’s only 16 but I was under the impression he has a monstrous arm. 19 seems a bit conservative for me – is it simply because of age and null experience or do you have significant concerns about his future and projections?.

    Thanks

    Comment by BWOzar — March 15, 2011 @ 1:03 am

  37. what a difference a year makes.

    Comment by jason — March 15, 2011 @ 1:05 am

  38. Maybe not at the level of talent evaluation, but relevant nonetheless. My Tech friends and in-laws would have a fit at a public mis-designation of their school. Only we Georgia fans are allowed to refer to the Techies as Georgia Vo-Tech or the North Avenue Trade School.

    Comment by xdog — March 15, 2011 @ 8:14 am

  39. I referred to the ‘GTU’ and ‘relevant’ comments in my previous post but the comment box saw fit to remove them.

    Comment by xdog — March 15, 2011 @ 8:21 am

  40. A few years from now, there will be people knocking AA and pointing out his busts as proof. Every GM has 1st round busts on his record. I like AA over JP, but overall JP did a good job of drafting. I read on a Blue Jays blog that since 2004 players drafted by JP ranked 4th in total WAR when compared to the other 29 teams. Unfortunately I don’t have a reference, nor would I be willing to do the research myself, but I definitely don’t have a hard time believing the stat when you consider the players drafted by JP who have been enjoying solid careers.

    Comment by Steve — March 15, 2011 @ 9:28 am

  41. Also a positive reflection on the Phillies’ farm system that still finished 5th despite trading Toronto 3 of it’s top 11 prospects within the last 2 years.

    Comment by neuter_your_dogma — March 15, 2011 @ 9:42 am

  42. Where do i find the other top 30’s and organizational rankings?

    Comment by Jeff — March 15, 2011 @ 10:11 am

  43. Well, he hit .275 in the minors, so it’s not like he doesn’t have the potential for a respectable BA.

    On the other hand, Jeff Mathis (career MLB BA .199) hit .276 in the minors…

    Comment by greenfrog — March 15, 2011 @ 7:46 pm

  44. http://www.fantasyrundown.com/2011_MLB_Prospects.html

    Comment by Tony — March 15, 2011 @ 7:57 pm

  45. Oh most definitely…

    Comment by Cam — March 16, 2011 @ 1:03 pm

  46. Key word in your argument is solid. But as AA has stated for the Blue Jays to succeed they need more than just average to above average players. You look at there pitching staff and who besides Morrow has above average stuff yes they have a few solid pitchers in romero and cecil and maybe litsch but that is not good enough when the yankees or redsox are gaurenteed to sign one or two of the top free agents every year. JP was a pretty good drafter and in another division maybe his teams would have competed and made the playoffs but in the AL East with a smaller budget you have to be creative to compete with the big boys.

    Look at the guys AA is aquiring
    Drabek
    Morrow
    Gose
    A. Sanchez
    Lawrie

    These are top talents with the potential to become stars.

    Comment by Mike — March 29, 2011 @ 12:32 pm

  47. I think his ceiling might be a Mike Napoli unfourtunatly

    Comment by Mike — March 29, 2011 @ 12:34 pm

  48. I’m really surprised Adam Loewen never got a mention. I think he’s a real sleeper in the system.

    Comment by allan1144 — April 4, 2011 @ 4:55 pm

  49. Where’s Brian Jeroloman(sp)? Top USA prospect, AAA currently, and young. Pretty darn good.

    Comment by Jacob — April 26, 2011 @ 5:14 pm

  50. Now that the season is over, what do you think about Arencibia? He proved you wrong!!! hahahahaha

    Comment by Jim — November 2, 2011 @ 12:26 pm

  51. I delight in, cause I discovered just what I was looking for. You’ve ended my four day long hunt! God Bless you man. Have a great day. Bye

    Comment by Toronto Football Club — November 8, 2011 @ 1:03 pm

  52. anthony gose is a rising prospect, the Jays also have infielder Montaous Walton on the rise who showed a ton of potential down at the academy two years in a row, many compare him to BJ upton!

    Comment by freddy — December 28, 2011 @ 11:16 pm

  53. Do you know anything else about this Montaous Walton? I’ve read conflicting reports about him.

    Comment by Ryan Kinsey — April 11, 2012 @ 1:01 am

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