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  1. Last year you guys ranked royals NO.30 right? NO.30 -> NO.1 farm system in a year? what’s wrong fangraphs’ prospects evaluating system?

    Comment by James — March 22, 2011 @ 11:32 am

  2. Hosmer finally started hitting like his scouting reports and BP aerial shows dictated he should, ditto for Moustakas. All the pitchers took a step forward, and they acquired Colon and Odorizzi through one means or another.

    That’s how you go from God-awful to great in a year. Tons of high-risk, high-reward guys will do that to an organization.

    Comment by Infrancoeurigible — March 22, 2011 @ 11:39 am

  3. I’ve been wondering for the last couple of days now whether prospects tend to be thought of more highly if they come from systems that are considered “good” as opposed to systems that are considered bad. For example, if one of the Royals’ better prospects happened to be in the Astros’ system would he still be thought of so highly. Basically, do prospects get given the benefit of the doubt if they have other good prospects surrounding them?

    Comment by Macek — March 22, 2011 @ 11:41 am

  4. Have never seen a mention of makeup problems with Myers, in fact quite the opposite. Disappointing that it’s mentioned in this write-up without some elaboration. Is there at least a link to a published report somewhere?

    Comment by Paul — March 22, 2011 @ 11:50 am

  5. This is the first time I’ve ever read anyone introduce “some questions about (Myers’) makeup.” By all previous accounts I’ve come across the kid’s a sponge and a hard worker. Can you elaborate on this Marc?

    Comment by Wilsonian Democracy — March 22, 2011 @ 11:59 am

  6. Whoa, jinx Paul…haha

    Comment by Wilsonian Democracy — March 22, 2011 @ 11:59 am

  7. If Fangraph’s staff indeed had KC’s farm system ranked dead last at the start of last season, I don’t see how you could argue against the fact that it was a very poor choice. Yes Hosmer & Moustakas had huge years, yes Myers had a brilliant offensive first professional season, yes many of the young arms progressed nicely, and yes they added a couple of pieces since then. But a lot of the guys who stepped forward last year were already very physically touted, and some of them were already considered Top 100 prospects before last season began.
    However, I’m not sure that they actually did rank the farm system dead last. I believe they ranked the organization as a whole last, but not necessarily their minor league system. Can anybody verify this one way or another?

    Comment by eckmuhl — March 22, 2011 @ 12:13 pm

  8. I also question the Myers makeup remark.

    Hosmer and Montgomery will both start at AAA.

    Comment by SpringtownRoyal — March 22, 2011 @ 12:16 pm

  9. Now that is a system.

    Comment by tdotsports1 — March 22, 2011 @ 12:19 pm

  10. I don’t know exactly what their prospect ranking was, but it definitely wasn’t 30.

    Royals have already said that Hosmer is starting the season in AAA.

    Comment by glp — March 22, 2011 @ 12:20 pm

  11. Org ranking was 29. Can’t find the farm system ranking easily.

    (Hint hint, FanGraphs: Your search function leaves a lot to be desired.)

    Comment by glp — March 22, 2011 @ 12:22 pm

  12. My gut feeling is that they were middle of the pack. Which isn’t surprising, Hosmer and Moustakas appeared to be potential busts at the end of last year with only decent years for being such high picks. Hosmer had eye surgery before this season, and apparently the Royals single A affiliate’s ballpark is hard on hitters. Famed Royals blogger, Rany ( often mentions how poorly hitters have done there over the years. (ie Carlos Beltran). This is also probably the reason why Hosmer showed a massive improvement in power after moving to AA.

    The article doesn’t give a number or rating, though.

    Comment by mcneo — March 22, 2011 @ 12:29 pm

  13. The only thing I have every heard about Myers is that some of his high school coaches maybe thought he liked to have too much fun on the field. That’s a quote from Myers himself. I would hardly call that a makeup issue, though. I would also like Marc to elaborate or cite a source.

    Comment by glp — March 22, 2011 @ 12:29 pm

  14. Tim Collins at #13 is a stretch. I watched him pitch a few times when he was in the Jays system and although he has swing and miss stuff he will never be anything other than a good to great reliever. That puts his peak WAR somewhere around what ? 1.0 ?
    IF he can somehow continue that Marmolesque K/9 into AAA and then at the major league level maybe 2.5 if he’s also a closer ?

    Comment by Beaster — March 22, 2011 @ 1:06 pm

  15. That also threw me. Not saying it’s necessarily wrong… I’ve just never seen that mentioned before.

    Comment by Will — March 22, 2011 @ 1:07 pm

  16. God, the search function is awful. I’m glad someone mentioned it. It’s halfway to impossible to find an old article.

    Comment by Jason461 — March 22, 2011 @ 1:28 pm

  17. there were 48 relievers in baseball last year with 1 WAR or higher. if collins can do that, a #13 ranking is completely justified and you could possibly argue higher than that due to his proximity to the majors and likelihood of reaching his ceiling, however limited it is due to being a reliever

    Comment by patrick — March 22, 2011 @ 1:28 pm

  18. I’ve heard that many reporters say Myers has a good make up and some leadership indeed. where did you get that info? i’m very curious.

    Comment by Jonathan — March 22, 2011 @ 1:32 pm

  19. “Estimated peak WAR” is… worse than useless.

    Comment by Telo — March 22, 2011 @ 1:33 pm

  20. We wouldn’t want our players having fun, would we.

    Comment by J — March 22, 2011 @ 2:02 pm

  21. Agreed. It is almost completely frivolous, which is uncharacteristic of this site.

    Comment by Paul — March 22, 2011 @ 2:05 pm

  22. I believe Collins was something like the #7 prospect by Baseball America for the Jays in ’10. And BA also had him right in the same range as Hulett this year. As much as I tend to agree that relievers should not rank real high, being ranked that high is not controversial in context of other rankings. Then again, look at the guys below him. It would be hard to argue placing Adam ahead of him based on fall instructs alone.

    Comment by Paul — March 22, 2011 @ 2:09 pm

  23. Not that it really matters but the wrong Murphy is linked to in the article for AL New York

    Comment by hunter — March 22, 2011 @ 2:35 pm

  24. Did I miss the Angels prospect report? I see one for the other 29 teams. Or are their prospects so bad nothing can be written?

    Comment by Dale — March 22, 2011 @ 2:36 pm

  25. I’m curious as to why Will Smith isn’t ranked in the top 30, I’ve seen him ranked as high as 7 on some lists but you guys don’t even have him top 30… Can you explain what you don’t see in him that others do?

    Comment by Jim — March 22, 2011 @ 2:43 pm

  26. Marc in reguards to the estimated peak war, what variables are you researching and and taking into account to predict or make an educated quess on this stat?(Age, average war by position and age vs the actuall replacement level average, skill set, how far the prospect is away fom the show?) Just curious to see what the formula is.

    Comment by Fenton_X — March 22, 2011 @ 3:10 pm


    Comment by Los — March 22, 2011 @ 3:23 pm

  28. I think people do that. But I don’t think the Royals system is getting the benefit of the doubt because nobody thinks highly of the Royals. But for example I think that Rays pitching prospects are rated highly because of the recent success they’ve had developing pitchers.

    Comment by Preston — March 22, 2011 @ 3:38 pm

  29. Very curious as to why Salvador Perez would be ranked so low. His defensive skills and game management are very advanced for his age and it looks like he will be able to hit enough to not be an embarrassment in the lineup.

    Comment by Jeff — March 22, 2011 @ 3:39 pm

  30. Soft tossing lefty, finesse pitcher, huge questions as to how stuff will play out at the upper levels. A 7 ranking in this organization would be way too high, but would work is some other orgs. Baseball America doesn’t have him in the Royals top 30 either.

    Like you, I have also seen him ranked too high – somebody had him as the second ranked pitcher in the org behind only Lamb. I almost burst out laughing. Then I scratched the site off my list of sites to visit.

    Comment by ecpgeo — March 22, 2011 @ 3:45 pm

  31. Also only heard good things. Maybe confused Myers with Arguelles??

    Comment by hawkinscm — March 22, 2011 @ 5:01 pm

  32. Isn’t peak WAR for a projected #1 starter more like 8? I mean, what is peak WAR anyway? Surely, a pitcher with that talent could be expected to have a 2.50ish ERA season at some point.

    Comment by hawkinscm — March 22, 2011 @ 5:03 pm

  33. It’s nice to see Montgomery ranked ahead of Lamb for a change. As much as I like advanced metrics, I also still believe that there is a lot to be gained from the infamous “eyeball test”. It seems like I always hear/read about Lamb over Montgomery but Montgomery appears to be the superior pitcher with the higher ceiling when seen in person.

    Comment by CubsFan — March 22, 2011 @ 5:25 pm

  34. Here’s an interview he did with last week. This is not meant to refute the makeup claims, but it’s interesting, and I sure can’t detect a hint of arrogance, which I could see being taken for makeup problems.

    Comment by Paul — March 22, 2011 @ 6:34 pm

  35. OK, let’s see if I can address all the questions… last year I didn’t rank the minor league organizations when doing the Top 10s. This was something new this year, which added a little bit of interest but did get muddied a bit when some major trades occurred (Milwaukee, Boston, etc).

    The Myers comments come after things I’ve heard from a few different front office types/scouts. It’s not that people think he’s a bad seed or a trouble maker but, from what I understand from what I’ve heard, Myers is used to being the best player and knows it; his confidence falls on the arrogance side. With that said, this is all second hand info and he has plenty of time to grow or prove he’s been misunderstood. I like Myers a lot… I just like Moustakas and Hosmer better.

    I don’t know that Perez is ranked low. BA had him at 17 and BP had him at 20. Good glove, questions about his bat… back-up but can he hit enough to start?

    The peak WAR is something we talked about doing this year to try and give the list a different flavor… It’ll probably be revamped next year because it’s so subjective. Was it a resounding success, no, but we do like to experiment. Like I said at the top of the article… you won’t find 300 free scouting reports anywhere but here.

    Comment by Marc Hulet — March 22, 2011 @ 8:57 pm

  36. I think its because of how freaking deep our system is. There are a lot of high upside arms in front of him as well as two good relievers who are major league ready. But, I love Perez and see him as the catcher of the future. Maybe a Yadlier Molina type that can play plus, plus defense and be effective in the 8 hole.

    Comment by Brett — March 23, 2011 @ 12:03 am

  37. Giavotella … kinda surprised to see him so low here (and at BA). Is it strictly a defense thing? To me his bat looks above average and if his defense is passable he should be ranked much higher, especially given how close he is.

    Thoughts, anyone?

    Comment by Jack Weiland — March 23, 2011 @ 10:20 am

  38. I’m always amused by the fact that people feel the need to comment on Estimated Peak WAR so much. If you find it useless, disregard it. It’s a line of text. Nothing more, nothing less. Get over it.

    Comment by Jack Weiland — March 23, 2011 @ 10:23 am

  39. I don’t know. I mean Chris Dwyer or Danny Duffy would obviously be a lot higher in a system like Houston’s or Milwaukee’s than they are here.

    I do agree somewhat with the other commenter about organizations such as Tampa Bay building up ‘equity’ of sorts amongst prospecters due to their sterling track record but I think prospects are, for th emost part, looked at it an individual sense.

    Comment by S.M. Jenkins — March 23, 2011 @ 10:30 am

  40. I’ve never heard anything like this either but it piqued my interest as well. I like Wil Myers a lot although his overall value might be construed as somewhat lower now with the position switch.

    Comment by S.M. Jenkins — March 23, 2011 @ 10:32 am

  41. I can’t imagine Will Smith ranking in the Top 10 or anything but I don’t think a ranking somewhere between 15-20 would be at all out of place.

    I feel like Smith has a very good chance to be a big league contributor & it’s easy to see Joe Saunders when looking at his minor league videos. The Angels jumped him up a level too quickly prior to the Alberto Callaspo deal (A to AAA initially) & Smith was a different pitcher with the Royals when he went back to a more appropriate rung. He’s only 21 & I’d expect him to start in AA to begin 2011.

    Comment by S.M. Jenkins — March 23, 2011 @ 10:38 am

  42. I’m always amused by people who are amused by people who comment on something that is useless instead of ignoring it, then comment to those people that they should ignore it instead of commenting. Please ignore this comment Jack, and we’ll just pretend none of this ever happened.

    Comment by Paul — March 23, 2011 @ 10:43 am

  43. I like Salvador Perez too &, yes, he’d rank much higher in other organizations. It’s hard to make a case for him over many of the names listed above him here due to the loaded KC farm (I’m not an Aaron Crow fan & would list Perez higher, but that’s probably it depending on how you value Tim Collins & maybe Brett Eibner).

    I like the Yadier Molina comparison as well although I believe Perez has at least a tick more natural power.

    Comment by S.M. Jenkins — March 23, 2011 @ 10:43 am

  44. Agree, agree, agree…I like Lamb a lot on the face of things, and maybe he’s better in the long run, but Montgomery is simply spectacular to watch. He has the “wow” factor.

    Comment by rbt — March 23, 2011 @ 10:46 am

  45. Good points & I think he’s probably ranked a little low here. I could see a case for him anywhere between 10-11 & 20 or so because of the range of different quality prospects though.

    The easy comparison with Johnny Giovatella is Dustin Pedroia due to physical similarities & the hit tool, but Giovatella isn’t as quick footed in the field. He sort of reminds me of current Royal Mike Aviles & there is certainly value in that. Giovatella would rank between 17th-20th for me (between Ventura & Lough/Crow/WSmith; that crowd) but that’s more due to the system. He’s a quality stick & he’s likely not far off.

    Comment by S.M. Jenkins — March 23, 2011 @ 10:55 am

  46. Marc: Thanks for the explanations, especially about Myers. I was hoping it was scouts thinking he was a little arrogant and not something more concrete or worrisome. That tag is not uncommon, but it’s awfully subjective and if it’s coming from guys who are not around him all the time, I don’t think it’s fair.

    Nothing wrong with the information, but I’ll probably give more weight to Yost saying in an interview the other day that those guys are so squared away that he’s never been called “sir” so much in his life. Nobody ever said that about Gordon and Butler. I don’t remember the arrogant tag put on them when they were in the minors, yet it’s turned out that while both are good guys, I’d say it’s well accepted by now that they’re both pretty arrogant.

    This series was great again, and at least one of the guys who filled in on some of the reports did such a good job that I thought they were you.

    Comment by Paul — March 23, 2011 @ 10:55 am

  47. So…still no elaboration on the Myers makeup comment?

    Comment by blackoutyears — March 23, 2011 @ 11:14 am

  48. Free Clint Robinson

    Comment by JB — March 31, 2011 @ 2:43 pm

  49. The search function iS terrible…

    Comment by Chris — April 6, 2011 @ 9:19 am

  50. What happened to Sam Runion??

    Comment by dave — April 16, 2011 @ 4:14 pm

  51. It’s Noel Arguelles, not Noah Arguelles.

    Comment by Colin — April 30, 2011 @ 8:54 pm

  52. if this post was likened to a flavor of yogurt, what flavor would it be? Banana, I believe.

    Comment by Trevor Martha — November 12, 2011 @ 9:07 pm

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