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  1. Brandon Morrow is not that far off from 200 innings, just as a reminder her was shut down by the club early for no reason other than he reached his yearly IP (decided before the season) which included a 17K one-hit complete game. I am feeling a break out year for Morrow.

    http://www.thestar.com/sports/baseball/mlb/bluejays/article/854079–jays-lose-to-tigers-shut-down-pitcher-brandon-morrow

    -bad article but just a reminder that he was shut down against his will.

    Comment by Garrett G — March 8, 2011 @ 11:22 am

  2. He was shut down*….not her lol

    Comment by Garrett G — March 8, 2011 @ 11:23 am

  3. There are 100 influential Canadians in baseball?

    Comment by andyC — March 8, 2011 @ 11:23 am

  4. Aren’t home runs taken out of BABiP? Wouldn’t that be a good reason Bautista’s was so low?

    Comment by André — March 8, 2011 @ 11:31 am

  5. I mean, he had 56 hits versus 54 home runs. His BABiP may very well go up this year while having a statistically worse season. Seems like a bizarre stat to use.

    Comment by André — March 8, 2011 @ 11:32 am

  6. Their offense really seems like it has a lot of room to grow – Lind, Hill, and Escobar all should have markedly improved seasons (though not necessarily their best), and if Travis Snider takes a nice step forward they have a lot of quality bats.

    Their pitching and defense though looks suspect…

    Comment by Resolution — March 8, 2011 @ 11:39 am

  7. I don’t think that necessarily means that his BABIP “should” be that low. As far as I know, the hits that go out of the park shouldn’t affect BABIP either way, as for the balls in play the fielder’s should have the same chance at.

    His crazy high FB%, on the other hand, could explain at least part of the low BABIP.

    Comment by theonemephisto — March 8, 2011 @ 11:41 am

  8. Well, they do. The first thing you do when calculating BABiP is subtract home runs from hits. If those home runs fall in as doubles instead, his BABiP is necessarily going to rise, even though he’ll be producing less runs. Or am I wrong? If I’m right it seems to be an easy place to account for the deviation from his .270 norm. Doesn’t mean his BABiP goes up next year or stays the same, just find it funny that I keep seeing BABiP referenced in support of his breakout year.

    Comment by André — March 8, 2011 @ 11:45 am

  9. Pitching depth is by far their organizational strength. It’s hard to fathom how you can see it as a weakness.

    Comment by Lewis — March 8, 2011 @ 11:49 am

  10. Maybe for this year (at least compared to the Yankees, Red Sox and Rays) it’s a weakness. But moving forward, the Jays have a bunch of very talented young pitchers in the pipeline. The future is promising indeed.

    Comment by Danny — March 8, 2011 @ 12:12 pm

  11. Whoops. Got way ahead of myself. 56 singles, not 56 hits, obviously. Now I’m confused and curious.

    Comment by André — March 8, 2011 @ 12:23 pm

  12. I don’t think their defense will be that bad either, and at least one other person things the same thing: http://www.actasports.com/stats_detail/?StatId=282

    Comment by Spiggy — March 8, 2011 @ 12:26 pm

  13. The number of balls not in play shouldn’t affect the rate at which the balls that do fall into play drop for hits. So, no.

    Comment by JH — March 8, 2011 @ 1:09 pm

  14. Both the hit and the ball in play is subtracted. The number of home runs has no affect whatsoever on batting average on balls in play. It’s not a deduction. As the other poster wrote, the high FB% does drive down BABIP, but the number of balls that go over the fence have no effect on it.

    Comment by JH — March 8, 2011 @ 1:11 pm

  15. But if more of those balls out of play (home runs) drop in for hits (doubles, singles, triples), that increases the rate of balls in play dropping for hits–assuming most of those drop for hits. No?

    Comment by André — March 8, 2011 @ 1:35 pm

  16. You can’t assume they’d all drop in for hits. A lot of them would be flyouts as well if they stayed in play.

    Comment by don — March 8, 2011 @ 1:41 pm

  17. Danny, are you saying that the Jay’s pitching is weak compared to both of the Yankees pitchers?

    Comment by SC2GG — March 8, 2011 @ 1:58 pm

  18. Yes, if all of his home runs would be hits if they weren’t home runs, his BABIP would be higher. That’s a fundamentally flawed assumption, though.

    HRs have no effect on BABIP. They are neutral.

    Comment by JH — March 8, 2011 @ 2:03 pm

  19. I’m assuming the Yankees will go out and acquire someone (decent) during the season. But I’m a Jays fan…and I’m willing to be patient. It’s nice to see AA taking the team in the right direction.

    Comment by Danny — March 8, 2011 @ 2:12 pm

  20. By ‘balanced offense’ do you mean the balance between hitting with runners not in scoring position and runners in scoring position?

    Comment by Torgen — March 8, 2011 @ 3:46 pm

  21. No,
    Babip = H – HR / AB – HR – K + SF

    so HR’s are subtracted by both sides resulting in the same answer

    Comment by ajee — March 8, 2011 @ 4:03 pm

  22. Quite excited about the Jays potential midseason callups…

    Lawrie has looked pretty good at 3B this spring, and if he is called up, Jose could move to RF where he is probably better suited.

    Zack Stewart could be another call-up if he performs. A lot of people have said good things about him, i think he is closer to Drabek than many people think.

    A rotation in September of Romero, Morrow, Cecil, Drabek and Stewart would be pretty cool to see.

    Comment by jkljk — March 8, 2011 @ 4:04 pm

  23. “This is not a lineup that will strike a lot of fear in its opponents.”

    And yet, with one significant difference, it did last year? I don’t know about this statement. They’ve replaced Buck with Arencibia, which I doubt is an offensive downgrade, Snider should be full time, and Lind and Hill look like bounce-back candidates. They’ve replaced Overbay/Lind with Lind/Encarnacion, likely an offensive upgrade. I mean, they lost Wells, who has never put together back-to-back quality seasons. I’m not too concerned about offensive production.

    As well, Snider has apparently been told he’ll be playing LF everyday this year, not RF as listed. I also don’t see him hitting eighth.

    Comment by Justin — March 8, 2011 @ 4:17 pm

  24. when compared to the rest of the al east this lineup isn’t very impsosing. way too many “?’s” and “what if’s?.” only known fact is encarnacion is garbage.

    Comment by david — March 8, 2011 @ 4:54 pm

  25. Oh, that’s why he posted 1.8 fWAR in under 400 PAs in 2010 while battling injuries all season?

    Sounds like a garbage to me.

    Comment by Benjamin — March 8, 2011 @ 5:28 pm

  26. He has a much steeper positional adjustment to overcome this year.

    Comment by Torgen — March 8, 2011 @ 5:46 pm

  27. more like balance of OBP and SLG i think

    Comment by Eric — March 8, 2011 @ 5:51 pm

  28. people forget how good buck was offensively last year. I don’t see Arencibia putting up a 114 wRC+. And losing Wells’ production (which doesn’t seem sustainable anyways) hurts the offense for sure.

    Comment by Eric — March 8, 2011 @ 5:54 pm

  29. the rest of the al east referring to Yankee and Boston only? Not much difference between Rays Jays and O’s offense.

    Comment by Eric — March 8, 2011 @ 5:55 pm

  30. No just because HR’s are subtracted from both his hits and his at bats does not mean removing them would result in the same result as if they were left in. Both of them are removed from the same side of the equation so yes by removing them it affects BABIP.

    So using his numbers from last year his BABIP = (148-54)/(569-54-116+4) = 0.233

    If you didnt remove homeruns it would be = (148)/(569-116+4) = 0.317

    Comment by Killmak — March 8, 2011 @ 6:42 pm

  31. Agreed on Buck – when he finally got the time, he was outstanding.
    This team…I dunno. A good chunk of it seems to be simply a bunch of stopgaps. Jose Bautista is a stopgap at third until Lawrie makes the team. Rajai Davis, while he could still surprise me still, is a guy I consider to be a stopgap until Anthony Gose gets up here. Juan Rivera is a stopgap until Jose gets shoved back into the outfield. Edwin is a stopgap until we find a pure hitter to take the DH spot. Maybe that guy is JPA when Travis d’Arnaud or Carlos Perez makes it to the Show. Maybe it’s not. That’s 3 guys for sure, and Edwin maybe…
    All I know is that a lot of Jays’ fans eyes (including mine) are going to be focused on New Hampshire, Dunedin, Lansing, or Las Vegas a little more this year.

    Comment by Cam — March 8, 2011 @ 8:38 pm

  32. exactly. This year is basically a throw-away. A lot of fans are blinded by the 85 wins last year.

    Comment by Eric — March 8, 2011 @ 11:42 pm

  33. The problem the Jays have and will have is getting on-base, despite out homering the 2nd place Red Sox by 46 HR they managed to rank 9th in runs scored. This is in large part due to a team OBP of 0.312 which was good for 5th worst in the majors (and that was including Bautista’s 0.378 mark!). Wells and Overbay ranked 4th and 5th on the team in OBP and are gone.

    The team brought in Davis (0.330 lifetime OBP) and Rivera (0.328 lifetime OBP). Hardly top notch on-base guys

    Comment by CampBrice — March 9, 2011 @ 11:36 am

  34. Dear Fangraphs,

    Why no 10-Ten Prospects article related to the Blue Jays?

    Jonah Keri should be the first one tackling this.

    Comment by Statement — March 9, 2011 @ 11:54 am

  35. Why not Hulet?

    Comment by ayjackson — March 9, 2011 @ 12:49 pm

  36. I don’t understand, “Statement”. Hulet has been covering the Jays for many, MANY years, and done a fantastic job in doing so.

    And, the top 10 on the Jays isn’t done yet because they are doing it in reverse order. You’ll see it soon…

    Comment by Kelekin — March 9, 2011 @ 3:29 pm

  37. Probably the same reason the Red Sox do not exist on the Team Previews…..

    Comment by Campbrice — March 9, 2011 @ 6:14 pm

  38. “I’ll have more on Lind in a moment.”

    Where?

    Comment by Reuben — March 10, 2011 @ 5:13 am

  39. Reuben:
    Those two paragraphs near the bottom in which he’s discussed as the Jays key player this year.

    Comment by Pauly D — March 10, 2011 @ 10:49 am

  40. Some serious misjudgements up above. First, the front four of the pitching rotation will be comparable to or better than every rotation in the league, possibly except for Tampa Bay. Romero, Morrow, and Cecil will all step up from strong years last year – look at their age and their trajectory year over year. Litsch looks likely to return to his pre-injury levels (or better, stay tuned), and whoever is the 5th starter will be much stronger than last year.

    Edwin Encarnacion was well defended above, but just to add that he is more likely to last a full season this year, as he will be mostly DHing. His pro-rated HR total last year was about 33, on a 150 games equivalency; the Jays are going to give him every chance to have the break-out hitting season that he is capable of. When he locks in as a hitter, he can hit anything. The challenge is to help him find his zone more often.

    Finally, the pen is stronger, three future superstars will come on board during the year (Drabek, Lawrie and Stewart), and the Yankees and Rays will be lesser teams than last year. While the Orioles have to be better with upgraded hitting, their pitching is no more impressive this year.

    Throwaway? Unlikely. Playoffs? Probably not. Better than the 85 wins of last year? I will take your under to my over, any time.

    Comment by earlweaverfan — March 10, 2011 @ 2:27 pm

  41. “This is not a lineup that will strike a lot of fear in its opponents.”

    Not sure how many other teams have 6 guys with the power potential of Bautista, Lind, Snider, Hill, Encarnacion, Arencibia. That’s 3 guys who all arguably have legit 30hr power (not to mention a 7th guy in Rivera with legit 20+ power).

    Maybe the Yanks with Tex, ARod, Cano, Granderson, Swisher, and Posada have 6 guys with that kind of power. And maybe the Orioles, I guess. not sure if there’s anyone else, though.

    Comment by everdiso — March 13, 2011 @ 11:19 pm

  42. ISO: Career Best (Career Average)

    J.Bautista (30): .357 2010 (.209)
    A.Lind (27): .257 2009 (.202)
    E.Encarnacion (28): .238 2010 (.196)
    T.Snider (23): .208 2010 (.191)
    J.Rivera (32): .214 2006 (.181)
    A.Hill (29): .213 2009 (.157)
    J.Arencibia (25): .200 2010 (.200) – .325 2010 AAA

    the OBP might not impress, but that should be enough muscle to strike the fear of god in most pitchers, especially when you add in 80+sb potential from Davis/Podsednik to annoy the hell out of those pitchers on the basepaths.

    Comment by everdiso — March 13, 2011 @ 11:33 pm

  43. Haha, I see in this article you wrote that if Bautista posted even a 5.0 WAR it’d be good. Did you ever imagine that he’d already have a 5.0 WAR before June even began?

    Comment by es0terik — June 4, 2011 @ 5:41 pm

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