FanGraphs Baseball

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  1. I bet Dusty Baker is salivating over this post, Dave.

    Comment by Eric Seidman — April 14, 2008 @ 6:32 pm

  2. For all the crap that Baker and the Reds get for the things they do wrong, they nailed this one and deserve credit for doing so. Patterson’s a legitimate asset, and picking him up for free is the kind of move that earned Billy Beane the genius label. This was a classic case of finding an undervalued talent and turning it into a competitive advantage.

    Comment by Dave Cameron — April 14, 2008 @ 6:38 pm

  3. That is a really remarkable graph. I can’t image a whole lot of players at that point in their career develop plate discipline. I wonder what other players have decreased their strikeout rate by that much in three years.

    I know the cubs were trying to get him to shorten his swing… I wonder if he finally did that.

    Comment by David Appelman — April 14, 2008 @ 6:38 pm

  4. Yeah I was initially skeptical of the move because it seemed like something a team that really felt they contend would do – and that is not something I honestly see the Reds doing this year. But who knows, maybe they will and maybe Patterson will keep this up. I would love to revisit this in June or July and see if he is keeping everything up. The graph truly is remarkable though. What are Patterson’s called-third strike numbers? I remember reading about Burrell and how his increased plate discipline has caused a jump in walks but also a jump in his percentage of called-thirds.

    Comment by Eric Seidman — April 14, 2008 @ 6:52 pm

  5. His PrOPS numbers are even more impressive (.327/.364/.676), but he’s still not walking at all despite the decline in strikeouts.

    Comment by dan — April 14, 2008 @ 8:24 pm

  6. When you’re hitting the ball like a .327 hitter and slugging like a .676 power hitter, walks are just getting in the way of your extra base hits.

    Comment by Dave Cameron — April 14, 2008 @ 9:07 pm

  7. The one thing I’ve never understood about Patterson is his sporadic power. In 2005 and 2007 Corey suffered a serious power drop in a significant number of plate appearances. Could it be that Corey doesn’t like extra base hits in odd numbered years? Just Kidding but seriously, does anyone have some insight to this?

    Comment by drew — April 15, 2008 @ 12:09 am

  8. Check out his GB%. He had a 46% GB rate in 2005 and a 44% GB rate in 2007, the two highest groundball rates of his career. In every other year, he’s between 38% and 40%. Groundballs lead to singles and outs, not extra base hits. His power didn’t go anywhere – he just hit the ball in the air less often.

    Comment by Dave Cameron — April 15, 2008 @ 12:29 am

  9. I don’t think that this is going to be the year that Corey Patterson emerges as a notable performer. His improved K/PA accompanied a serious decline in power: his HR/Fly rate dropped from over 11% to below 5% from 2006 to 2007.

    One might think that his current performance shows that this will turn around, but observational data from hittracker suggests this isn’t so. (I’d link it, but the last time I wrote a comment here with a link, it never posted, so you’ll just have to google hittracker to get that info.) His average home run distance is 369 feet; one of them would have been a homer in no other park in the country, another in only 12 other parks.

    If Patterson keeps it up, he may stick around for awhile, but my guess is that sometime around June 1st he looses his regular job to Jay Bruce. My guess is that Patterson was hired as a stopgap CF while he Reds wait awhile on Jay Bruce to avoid second year arbitration eligibility for their top prospect.

    Comment by philosofool — April 15, 2008 @ 10:37 am

  10. Interesting analysis.

    Anytime for a quick summary of the pitch data on baseball-reference, I’d like to understand it but can’t find a glossary related to it on the site. Thanks

    Comment by David — April 15, 2008 @ 5:18 pm

  11. If you go to a player’s B-R page, such as Alex Rodriguez’s here, you’ll see Pitch Data Summary (show or hide) about halfway down. Click that to expand it, and the data shows up – below the data, on the left side, is a glossary button. If you click that, it will expand again, and give you the meaning of each category.

    Comment by Dave Cameron — April 15, 2008 @ 8:21 pm

  12. Thanks

    Comment by David — April 17, 2008 @ 5:52 pm

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