FanGraphs Baseball


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  1. Great post Joe.

    The Mets are flying under the rader, with Sports Illustrated even predicting them to finish dead last in the NL East.

    I think the Mets can win ~85 games this year. They have much better depth than in years past both at the MLB and AAA level.

    I love it when people sleep on the Mets. They will thrive on the disrespect.

    Comment by Jon Presser — March 29, 2011 @ 2:35 pm

  2. Truth ^


    Comment by Mr. Met — March 29, 2011 @ 2:44 pm

  3. I think 85 wins is a bit optimistic, however, if things break right, I could say them contending for the WC. But a lot needs to go right; like Reyes returning to his 2008 form, Beltran playing a decent amount of games, Bay returning to his pre-2010 form, Santana returning by July, etc .. its not like that is impossible by any means, but its probably best to hedge bets against it all occurring.

    They should be a fun group to watch. Their lineup is actually quite good from top to bottom, and not giving ~1000 PA to The Black Holes (Cora, Francoeur, GMJ, Jacobs, etc) will help.

    Comment by NM — March 29, 2011 @ 2:49 pm

  4. That is a good bullpen. 53 K/9 !!! The BB’s are a little high but…

    Comment by filihok — March 29, 2011 @ 2:51 pm

  5. At first glance, their rotations looks kind of poor. Two or three #3 starters and a bunch of 4’s and 5’s.

    Comment by Powder Blues — March 29, 2011 @ 2:51 pm

  6. Total K/9 and BB/9 aren’t the sum of the individuals. Quick crunching shows somewhere more in the neighborhood of 7.54 and 3.67, respectively.

    Comment by mattinm — March 29, 2011 @ 3:28 pm

  7. Hi,

    this post was about the bullpen, not the rotation. Just thought you should know.


    The Reading Comprehension Skills You Were Supposed to Learn Years Ago

    Comment by Anon — March 29, 2011 @ 3:44 pm

  8. Most team’s projected bullpen ERAs will be better than their real ERA. A few pen arms will blow up and have 10+ ERAs screwing up the ERA for the pen overall. I am not sure this article proves that the Met’s pen has really improved. I see a bunch of question marks in that group actually.

    Comment by Pachoo — March 29, 2011 @ 4:06 pm

  9. I guess the way to test this hypothesis is to calculate the projected ZIPs ERA for the bullpens of all the NL teams going into 2011 and compare it to the Mets. I have a feeling the Met’s pen wouldn’t hold up very well.

    Comment by Pachoo — March 29, 2011 @ 4:12 pm

  10. Hmm, and actually the Met’s bullpen ERA was 3.59 last year, so the projected 2011 bullpen ERA of 3.95 is kind of a step backwards.

    Comment by Pachoo — March 29, 2011 @ 4:20 pm

  11. “The real surprise from the Mets bullpen comes from its complete makeover. Of the seven relievers, only two, Rodriguez and Parnell, pitched with the team last season. During the off-season they lost Pedro Feliciano and Hisanori Takahashi, both of whom provided more value last season than any Mets reliever not named Francisco. Yet they’re coming back with a unit that projects to be only slightly worse.”

    Comment by dutchbrowncoat — March 29, 2011 @ 4:24 pm

  12. Is the Isringhausen line a joke, or is there actual promise there?

    Comment by Big Jgke — March 29, 2011 @ 4:50 pm

  13. Wow, 53.12 K/9 as a unit. I guess ZiPS is predicting a lot of strike outs on passed balls by Josh Thole. All those passed balls combined with the 26 BB/9 probably means that this group’s going to give up a lot of runs this year.

    Comment by David — March 29, 2011 @ 5:21 pm

  14. Enjoyed this, Joe.

    Comment by Sky Kalkman — March 29, 2011 @ 5:29 pm

  15. Nice post, but it seems to reveal that the Mets made a mistake in keeping Boyer over Acosta. Boyer had a 4.6 K/9 and a 4.6 BB/9 last year, which is obviously pretty awful. His projections seem extremely optimistic.

    Comment by Dave G — March 29, 2011 @ 5:33 pm

  16. wouldn’t it be best to average K/9 and BB/9? And HR/9 too for that matter, though it would be interesting to calculate the FIP of a pitcher with 53 K/9, 26 BB/9, and 6 HR/9… defense wouldn’t do much I suppose.

    Comment by Julian — March 29, 2011 @ 6:07 pm

  17. Yeah, wow, no idea how that happened. I can’t believe I didn’t notice that before posting. Those numbers are correct.

    Comment by Joe Pawlikowski — March 29, 2011 @ 6:50 pm

  18. Rex Ryan hopefully will be our coach if there is a lockout.

    Comment by mjets — March 29, 2011 @ 7:43 pm

  19. I haven’t seen him pitch, but apparently he’s pitched extremely well this spring. Good velocity, and he’s showing much better ‘stuff’ than he did in his last go-round. He obviously can’t be counted on for a lot of innings, but he can potentially be solid until his arm falls off.

    Comment by vivalajeter — March 29, 2011 @ 8:32 pm

  20. I’m not sure I’d say this is a strength, as the title of the post says, but I agree that it shouldn’t be a weakness. Their main weakness will be from the likelihood of injuries. Their lineup is very solid 1-8, and every one of their 5 starters can keep the team in the game, but there are too many injury questions. Beltran, Bay, Young, Capuano, Reyes – if all 5 were healthy and performing, then this team can compete, but what are the odds that they’d all stay healthy?

    Comment by vivalajeter — March 29, 2011 @ 8:37 pm

  21. He was analyzing the team as a whole. Someone made a prediction of 85 wins, which, to my mind, concerns more than just the bullpen. stop being nasty and trying to start fights on the internet. it’s just sad, man. He was making an observation about the team.

    Comment by phoenix2042 — March 29, 2011 @ 9:28 pm

  22. FRod has a strong upper cut. Body Blow Body Blow. Knock him out.

    Comment by MrMet — March 29, 2011 @ 11:33 pm

  23. Zips FIP projections…

    Pelfrey 3.91 FIP
    Niese 3.91 FIP
    Dickey 4.02 FIP
    Capuano 3.83 FIP
    Young 4.67 FIP
    Gee 4.43 FIP
    Santana 3.51 FIP
    Mejia 4.18 FIP
    Bonser 4.07 FIP

    Seems like they have plenty of options to give them more or less league average starting pitching….

    Comment by Derek — March 29, 2011 @ 11:51 pm

  24. Bay is already injured.

    Beltran seems likely to DL at some point this season. I really only have confidence in Reyes staying healthy. If one of the two of the Chrises stayed healthy all year, I’d consider it a plus. Gee (and maybe later, Meija) can step in and provide at least a mid-4 FIP. Overall, this starting staff is going to be quite average. The front end isn’t as good as most teams front end, but the back end isn’t as bad, either.

    Comment by Paul — March 29, 2011 @ 11:58 pm

  25. If the Mets thrived on disrespect, they would be playing in the World Series every other season.

    Comment by John Gaines — March 30, 2011 @ 12:49 am

  26. It’s good that their bullpen will be a strength for them. It’s probably the only one they’ll have. Starting pitchers are OK (maybe league average), and other than Wright, their best hope for above average players are Reyes and Ike.

    Comment by John Franco — March 30, 2011 @ 8:36 am

  27. How can ZiPS come up with projections for a guy like Beato who has never pitched above AA?

    More importantly, why would anyone think such a projection would be accurate?

    Comment by Sal — March 30, 2011 @ 9:42 am

  28. Totally agree. The Mets are being underrated and marked down because of all the bad press surrounding the team the last year and a half, especially from the Madoff situation.

    If they can avoid the heavy injuries which plagued them the last two years, I see an 85+ win team.

    As for the bullpen, I see both Beato and Boyer beating that projection. Boyer has a newly refined slider in his arsenal and he’s been pitching great, though it;s only spring training.

    Thanks to Pawlikowski for having the courage to write an objective story about the Mets and not simply act like a sheep the way the rest of the national sports media have been doing.

    Comment by CaseyB — March 30, 2011 @ 11:20 am

  29. He hit 91 a couple of days ago, and has looked terrific.

    Comment by Rambler — March 30, 2011 @ 3:24 pm

  30. “As for the bullpen, I see both Beato and Boyer beating that projection”.

    I don’t see it. And as a Dback fan that saw Boyer pitch quite often, I REALLY don’t see it with him.

    Comment by David K — March 30, 2011 @ 3:37 pm

  31. If you look at last year as an aberration, Boyer looks much better. I liked Acosta too, but it’s not like Acosta doesn’t have a history of high BB/9’s.

    Comment by Ogre39666 — March 30, 2011 @ 4:17 pm

  32. Did Angel Pagan kick your dog our something?

    Comment by Ogre39666 — March 30, 2011 @ 4:19 pm

  33. Yeah, but I do see it, and as a Met fan, I’ve seen them pitch quite often during spring training.

    That’s a winning argument.

    Comment by BlackOps — March 30, 2011 @ 5:12 pm

  34. Mets will be lucky to be in 4th place at the end of the year. If Washington’s pitching wasn’t crap too, the Mets would be a done deal for the cellar. Florida, Atlanta, and Philly are all superior. Because I said so.

    Comment by smelly shelly — March 30, 2011 @ 7:18 pm

  35. Which it apparently just did. Izzy’ll be in “extended Spring Training” for a while yet.

    Comment by Brian Singer — March 31, 2011 @ 5:10 am

  36. Properly adjusted for things like league strength AA and AAA stats are as useful and accurate in predicting ML performance as are previous ML stats.

    At least, Bill James thinks so.

    Comment by Brian Singer — March 31, 2011 @ 5:14 am

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