I think 85 wins is a bit optimistic, however, if things break right, I could say them contending for the WC. But a lot needs to go right; like Reyes returning to his 2008 form, Beltran playing a decent amount of games, Bay returning to his pre-2010 form, Santana returning by July, etc .. its not like that is impossible by any means, but its probably best to hedge bets against it all occurring.
They should be a fun group to watch. Their lineup is actually quite good from top to bottom, and not giving ~1000 PA to The Black Holes (Cora, Francoeur, GMJ, Jacobs, etc) will help.
Most team’s projected bullpen ERAs will be better than their real ERA. A few pen arms will blow up and have 10+ ERAs screwing up the ERA for the pen overall. I am not sure this article proves that the Met’s pen has really improved. I see a bunch of question marks in that group actually.
I guess the way to test this hypothesis is to calculate the projected ZIPs ERA for the bullpens of all the NL teams going into 2011 and compare it to the Mets. I have a feeling the Met’s pen wouldn’t hold up very well.
“The real surprise from the Mets bullpen comes from its complete makeover. Of the seven relievers, only two, Rodriguez and Parnell, pitched with the team last season. During the off-season they lost Pedro Feliciano and Hisanori Takahashi, both of whom provided more value last season than any Mets reliever not named Francisco. Yet they’re coming back with a unit that projects to be only slightly worse.”
Comment by dutchbrowncoat — March 29, 2011 @ 4:24 pm
Is the Isringhausen line a joke, or is there actual promise there?
Wow, 53.12 K/9 as a unit. I guess ZiPS is predicting a lot of strike outs on passed balls by Josh Thole. All those passed balls combined with the 26 BB/9 probably means that this group’s going to give up a lot of runs this year.
Nice post, but it seems to reveal that the Mets made a mistake in keeping Boyer over Acosta. Boyer had a 4.6 K/9 and a 4.6 BB/9 last year, which is obviously pretty awful. His projections seem extremely optimistic.
wouldn’t it be best to average K/9 and BB/9? And HR/9 too for that matter, though it would be interesting to calculate the FIP of a pitcher with 53 K/9, 26 BB/9, and 6 HR/9… defense wouldn’t do much I suppose.
I haven’t seen him pitch, but apparently he’s pitched extremely well this spring. Good velocity, and he’s showing much better ‘stuff’ than he did in his last go-round. He obviously can’t be counted on for a lot of innings, but he can potentially be solid until his arm falls off.
I’m not sure I’d say this is a strength, as the title of the post says, but I agree that it shouldn’t be a weakness. Their main weakness will be from the likelihood of injuries. Their lineup is very solid 1-8, and every one of their 5 starters can keep the team in the game, but there are too many injury questions. Beltran, Bay, Young, Capuano, Reyes – if all 5 were healthy and performing, then this team can compete, but what are the odds that they’d all stay healthy?
He was analyzing the team as a whole. Someone made a prediction of 85 wins, which, to my mind, concerns more than just the bullpen. stop being nasty and trying to start fights on the internet. it’s just sad, man. He was making an observation about the team.
Beltran seems likely to DL at some point this season. I really only have confidence in Reyes staying healthy. If one of the two of the Chrises stayed healthy all year, I’d consider it a plus. Gee (and maybe later, Meija) can step in and provide at least a mid-4 FIP. Overall, this starting staff is going to be quite average. The front end isn’t as good as most teams front end, but the back end isn’t as bad, either.
If the Mets thrived on disrespect, they would be playing in the World Series every other season.
Comment by John Gaines — March 30, 2011 @ 12:49 am
It’s good that their bullpen will be a strength for them. It’s probably the only one they’ll have. Starting pitchers are OK (maybe league average), and other than Wright, their best hope for above average players are Reyes and Ike.
Mets will be lucky to be in 4th place at the end of the year. If Washington’s pitching wasn’t crap too, the Mets would be a done deal for the cellar. Florida, Atlanta, and Philly are all superior. Because I said so.
Comment by smelly shelly — March 30, 2011 @ 7:18 pm
Which it apparently just did. Izzy’ll be in “extended Spring Training” for a while yet.
Comment by Brian Singer — March 31, 2011 @ 5:10 am
Properly adjusted for things like league strength AA and AAA stats are as useful and accurate in predicting ML performance as are previous ML stats.
At least, Bill James thinks so.
Comment by Brian Singer — March 31, 2011 @ 5:14 am