FanGraphs Baseball


RSS feed for comments on this post.

  1. Blame Greg Maddux.

    Comment by Kincaid — April 28, 2009 @ 3:09 pm

  2. Does this show up in his WAR?

    Comment by rwperu34 — April 28, 2009 @ 3:42 pm

  3. Any way the catcher could just stop trying to throw them out and get them marked as “indifference”?

    Comment by Seth — April 28, 2009 @ 4:29 pm

  4. I could be wrong, but my impression is that “indifference” is ruled based as much on the actions of the pitcher and infielders to keep the runner close to the base as it is anything done by the catcher. Plus if it’s likely to affect the results of the game (it’s early in the game, and/or the runner represents a tying or winning run) it’s not going to get scored as defensive indifference. 10.07(g)

    The scorer shall consider, in judging whether the defensive team has been indifferent to a runner’s advance, the totality of the circumstances, including the inning and score of the game, whether the defensive team had held the runner on base, whether the pitcher had made any pickoff attempts on that runner before the runner’s advance, whether the fielder ordinarily expected to cover the base to which the runner advanced made a move to cover such base, whether the defensive team had a legitimate strategic motive to not contest the runner’s advance or whether the defensive team might be trying impermissibly to deny the runner credit for a stolen base. For example, with runners on first and third bases, the official scorer should ordinarily credit a stolen base when the runner on first advances to second, if, in the scorer’s judgment, the defensive team had a legitimate strategic motive—namely, preventing the runner on third base from scoring on the throw to second base—not to contest the runner’s advance to second base. The official scorer may conclude that the defensive team is impermissibly trying to deny a runner credit for a stolen base if, for example, the defensive team fails to defend the advance of a runner approaching a league or career record or a league statistical title.

    Comment by joser — April 28, 2009 @ 4:39 pm

  5. This is going to be an extremely interesting situation to watch. If CY can’t hold runners to anything less than a 90% SB success rate, the flaw may very well be fatal to his career. I hope, for his sake, that he learns quickly.

    I’m trying to think of semi-comparable situations, for a frame of reference… What other combination of player & skill compares to this degree of ineptitude?

    Comment by Alec — April 28, 2009 @ 4:48 pm

  6. Way to rain on my parade, man! ;)

    Comment by Seth — April 28, 2009 @ 4:49 pm

  7. I realistically can’t get over the fact that if the Padres figure that they’ll do more harm trying to throw the runner out than just holding tight. If the runners are stealing at a 97% clip — I’d have to ask what the percentage on Hundley throwing it into the outfield, or the ball somehow getting free such that the runner could advance to third. I’d imagine it’d at least be close to 5-10 percent, which almost makes standing up and eating it, rather than throwing somewhat of a strategy.

    Now, whether or not the out is worth more 3 percent of the time, than the extra base is worth 10 percent of the time, is up for debate.

    I think it’d be smart for Hundley to say screw it 3 of 5 times, and almost try and trick runners into believe he wont steal.

    Comment by kris — April 28, 2009 @ 4:50 pm

  8. Chuck Knoblock throwing to first base :P

    Comment by kris — April 28, 2009 @ 4:52 pm

  9. Since 1980 I was able to find two players that were almost as bad at holding runners.

    Mike Scott from 1987-1990 allowed 162 SB with only 22 CS for a 88% rate (actually probably allowed more SB runs than Young).

    Bobby WItt in 1986-1987 allowed 90 SB with 6 CS for a 93.8% rate.

    Dwight Gooden from 1986-1989 was likely next with 143 SB and 29 CS, an 83 % rate.

    I’d be interested in seeing SB runs allowed on these guys and see who’s the worst single season and who had the worst multi year runs.

    Comment by rwperu34 — April 28, 2009 @ 5:08 pm

  10. Minor correction: Chris B. Young, the D-Back center fielder is not a “hack at everything player.” His career swing percentage is just 41% and he swings a pitches in the zone just a little less than three times as frequently as out of zone. It’s hard to diagnose what’s wrong with Young’s approach at the plate, but it isn’t free-swinging; about half his K’s were looking rather than swinging. One suspects that given his low swing rate, pitchers aren’t afraid to go after the zone with him and get him behind sitting on hittable pitches. I’d have to stop and watch him more to be go beyond speculation based on the stats.”

    Comment by philosofool — April 28, 2009 @ 5:10 pm

  11. If it becomes career-endangering, all Young really has to do is start holding onto the ball with runners on to vary his timing enough to keep slow players from stealing against him. He can’t be so slow to the plate that people with average or below speed can frequently steal off him without getting a big jump.

    Comment by cpebbles — April 28, 2009 @ 5:15 pm

  12. shawon dunston and drawing a walk?

    Comment by MPC — April 28, 2009 @ 5:22 pm

  13. Angel Berroa and baseball.

    Comment by cpebbles — April 28, 2009 @ 5:25 pm

  14. Chris Young is no doubt an enigma as a pitcher. Consider his other three major outlier stats:

    Career BABIP: .268
    Career BAA: .226
    Career GB/FB: 0.53

    I would say those stats explain why he has had success considering the awful SB percentage. There are various conclusions that could be drawn. At least one of which is that because of the low GB/FB he relies less on the double play than most pitchers, thus it is not as important that he keeps runners on first. As well the low BAA results in less of the runners that make it to second being driven in by base hits.

    Comment by Trent — April 28, 2009 @ 5:26 pm

  15. He’s an extreme flyball pitcher playing half his games at Petco. 2006 BABIP of .237, 2007 BABIP of .252, 2008 BABIP of .266. The guy is only in the majors because he plays in the ideal stadium for half the year.

    Comment by Matt Harms — April 28, 2009 @ 6:04 pm

  16. I would say that is a bit of an exageration. Here are his splits for his first two years in San Diego(leaving out last year because he was injured most of the year):

    Away: 181IP 68ER 126H 76BB 3.38ERA 1.07WHIP
    Home: 171.1IP 60ER 126H 65BB 3.14 ERA 1.06WHIP

    Yeah…I suppose your right, no way he should be in the majors. You would think if you frequented a site like this you wouldn’t throw out generalities like you did without first looking at the numbers.

    Comment by Trent — April 28, 2009 @ 6:45 pm

  17. You’re right on me throwing out the generalities, fair enough. But the whip, era, and hits are all artificially low due to his unsustainable babip.

    Comment by Matt Harms — April 28, 2009 @ 9:08 pm

  18. Most people seem to agree with you. I went ahead and looked back a few years…Here is what I found.

    From 2005-2008 35 pitchers have had a season with a GB/FB under 0.7. Of these only 8 had a BABIP over .300. Where as 9 have had a BABIP under .260. Considering BABIP is supposed to normalize at .300 it looks like there might be a trend for those pitchers that are extreme flyball pitchers to have a lower normalized BABIP than normal pitchers.

    Comment by Trent — April 28, 2009 @ 10:13 pm

  19. Dave,

    Where did you find the stolen base numbers against Young? Are these statistics (stolen bases allowed/attempted) readily available?

    Comment by John — April 29, 2009 @ 12:21 am

  20. I got them from CBS under “situational stats”. Here is Youngs page:

    Comment by Trent — April 29, 2009 @ 6:30 am

  21. Clearly anyone can see that throwing out baserunners is solely the catcher’s duty so it’s Nick Hundley’s fault. “Before the throw that popped Hawpe in the neck, Colorado had stolen 8 bases off of San Diego catcher Nick Hundley — 5 by Dexter Fowler. Hundley, who’s only relation to Todd is that they both suck at nabbing base stealers, didn’t intend to hit Hawpe in the neck, but I bet the throw had some extra zip on it out of frustration.”

    See? If only Hundley’s throws were 300 mph … Ian Stewart’s glove would’ve wound up pinned to the CF fence. But still.

    Comment by TheGreenMiles — April 29, 2009 @ 9:23 am

  22. Gavin Floyd may be second worst among active pitchers. baserunners are 66 for 74 for an 89% success rate in his career. 37/42 last year for 88% success rate.

    Comment by bhoov — April 29, 2009 @ 12:05 pm

  23. Correction: that should have read “his looking strike rate was half his swinging strike rate” not “half his Ks were looking.” There’s obviously a big difference. Still, that is a high rate of looking Ks.

    Comment by Fresh Hops — April 29, 2009 @ 12:53 pm

  24. “Where did you find the stolen base numbers against Young? Are these statistics (stolen bases allowed/attempted) readily available?”

    BB-ref also has them, under the main “pitching statistics” for a player, in the “Batting Against–Pitching” table.

    Young has an amazing record. I thought Gooden, Nomo, and Wakefield were bad at preventing steals, but they’re still not close to Young.

    Comment by mike — April 29, 2009 @ 1:56 pm

  25. Updating a previous item, base stealers are currently at 20/20 against Chris Young.

    Comment by Caleb — June 26, 2009 @ 3:54 pm

  26. Wow what a nice place,I’ve learned a lot from your blog here, And I may come here Often, Keep on going,my friend, see you soon

    Comment by Toner Cartridges — October 30, 2011 @ 10:03 pm

  27. Wow ….What a nice place…This blog is very impressive !!!

    Comment by cartridge ink — December 24, 2012 @ 12:27 am

Leave a comment

Line and paragraph breaks automatic, e-mail address never displayed, HTML allowed: <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <strike> <strong>

Close this window.

0.210 Powered by WordPress