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  1. Ou broke the rulez1111!!!!1!1!shift+one!

    Comment by andy s. — April 5, 2011 @ 11:09 am

  2. So….he’s still a regression candidate?

    Comment by PL — April 5, 2011 @ 11:29 am

  3. You know, I watched that start, and Cahill had nasty stuff. Absolutely nothing straight and always around the plate. It made his numbers from last season make a lot of sense. He’s a serious weak contact pitcher, so predict regression at your own peril. Not that he will win 18 again, that’s something else entirely.

    Comment by ofMontreal — April 5, 2011 @ 11:59 am

  4. So yah. This article was written last year as well. Except Cahill was actually throwing his curve more often.

    The PFX system is all fucked to hell right now (i have no clue why) but various stadiums are adding a boat-load of sink. Because it’s all screwed, a lot of Cahill’s sliders got tossed into the curve pile.

    But yah, in one start, Cahill threw roughly 7 percent more breaking pitches. I love speculation and I think your readers are smart enough to understand when a small sample size warning must be applied.

    Cahill’s a good pitcher. If he wants to rack up some strike-outs, he’ll do it on the back of his change-up and curveball/slider. Whether or not it’s worth upping the PC is debatable.

    Comment by Kris — April 5, 2011 @ 12:00 pm

  5. I didn’t see Cahill pitch at all last year, but after seeing his last start, I’d never peg him for a ~5 K/9 guy. His pitches were doing some crazy things.

    Comment by Htpp — April 5, 2011 @ 12:16 pm

  6. You’re right in that everyone has a bizarre amount of sink, but I don’t think it’s the PitchFX system. It’s Fangraphs. Everything’s displaying fine on Brooks Baseball.

    http://www.brooksbaseball.net/pfxVB/cache/movement.php-pitchSel=502239&game=gid_2011_04_01_seamlb_oakmlb_1&batterX=&innings=yyyyyyyyy&sp_type=1&s_type=.gif

    Comment by danmerqury — April 5, 2011 @ 12:35 pm

  7. It’s hard to know whether allowing three batters to extend at-bats is good or bad without context. It doesn’t seem like much to me.

    And if the fouls were batters barely connecting and making weak attempts to stay alive in the at-bat, how does that show the curve wasn’t effective? If he polished those hitters off on the next pitch with a fastball, I’m not convinced having to throw one extra pitch is a bad thing.

    Comment by AJS — April 5, 2011 @ 12:57 pm

  8. Going to have to correct you there. FanGraphs gets its pitchfx numbers from MLBAM (like most other sites) at the end of a day’s games. Brooks is the main site out there that gets it after each at-bat. The vertical movement numbers had more to do with post-gameday calibration issues than it did with pitch-by-pitch numbers — that is, the end-of-day pitch logs were re-calibrated and re-classified incorrectly across baseball for whatever reason, but looked fine on live updates.

    And, for what it’s worth, Cory Schwartz of MLBAM/MLB.com has indicated, just now, that the pfx vertical movement numbers should be resolved and more ‘normal’ than they were the first few days of the season. So we won’t see Barry Zito curves with -20 inches of vertical movement anymore, hopefully.

    Comment by Albert Lyu — April 5, 2011 @ 4:57 pm

  9. Yah, I have been somewhat confused by everything because I’ve been getting numbers from Brooks and Fangraphs. I think when I looked at Kyle Drabek, his Brooks starts (last year and this) were just as strange.

    I always hear so much about Drabek’s sinker, but it’s always appeared to be pretty ‘meh’ in terms of “sink”.

    Thanks very much for clearing that up Albert. It appeared to be pretty random when I looked at the data. Some guys appeared to have the same stuff and other guys had different stuff. Maybe it was just a difference between looking at Brooks and Fangraphs…. who knows…

    Comment by Kris — April 5, 2011 @ 9:16 pm

  10. Well, allowing a batter to extend an AB is obviously a bad thing. How bad? I certainly don’t know.

    We don’t know the outcome of either event, so we’ve basically got to assume equal probability and thus, +1 to the PC is a bad thing.

    However, the way the Athletics defense is playing tonight, anything is better than inducing contact, even if it’s terribly weak contact.

    Comment by Kris — April 5, 2011 @ 9:24 pm

  11. It’s worth noting that the curve Cahill is throwing in the majors is not the same curve he threw in the minors when he was racking up those strikeouts.

    In the minors he threw a spike or knuckle curve.

    In the majors he’s been working with a true, snap-the-wrist curve. So it may not have the same movement or effect.

    Comment by hecubot — April 6, 2011 @ 1:02 am

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