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  1. Heyward will have a monster year. 285+ average!!!!!!

    Comment by Dscott — April 20, 2011 @ 4:09 pm

  2. Looking at the uncommon combination of poor luck and production, ’tis hard to resist the Heywardian bandwagon.

    Comment by Bradley Woodrum — April 20, 2011 @ 4:18 pm

  3. Except a lot of those guys have been hitting the ball terribly.

    Ryan Ludwick, for instance, has had 4 line-drives, 8 groundballs, 22 outfield flies, and 3 popups. The expected BABIP for that is something like .220

    There’s obviously some bad luck involved, and its not universally true, but the “luck loserboard” is full of guys who have a LD% of 10%-13%. It ain’t all bad luck.

    Comment by Yirmiyahu — April 20, 2011 @ 4:30 pm

  4. It could be bad luck that caused an outfield fly rather than a line drive, not necessarily due to some kind of terrible hitting.

    Comment by Small Sample Goodness — April 20, 2011 @ 4:32 pm

  5. Did you consider looking at each player’s xBABIP as well to determine whether it was more likely bad luck or possibly more based on how they were making contact? I would imagine even if their xBABIP was low as well that that value would regress similarly, but it would be “interesting” nonetheless.

    Comment by Michael — April 20, 2011 @ 4:42 pm

  6. I wish I could get the panicking Braves fans to see this.

    Comment by Deadpool — April 20, 2011 @ 4:45 pm

  7. I don’t think I would call that “luck,” exactly, but its definitely a SSS issue. Baseball performance is non-linear. Guys have hot streaks and slumps.

    Comment by Yirmiyahu — April 20, 2011 @ 4:57 pm

  8. So if a few of Posada’s HRs had instead bounced off the wall as doubles, he’d be less unlucky?

    Comment by Sam — April 20, 2011 @ 5:36 pm

  9. @Yirmiyahu: Precisely. Players go through cold streaks, wherein they’re constantly making little adjustments.

    Yeah, CC may not be hitting a lot of liners, but his ground balls aren’t slipping through either. More importantly, however, he will eventually get it together and start hitting some liners — unless he’s truly asplode.

    Comment by Bradley Woodrum — April 20, 2011 @ 6:07 pm

  10. Good point. I’ll take a look at this Loserboard in a few weeks, throwing in some xBABIPs.

    Several of these guys might have sub-.200 xBABIPs, but I imagine most do not cross below .250.

    Comment by Bradley Woodrum — April 20, 2011 @ 6:08 pm

  11. Yeah, the Red Sox, Yankees, and Braves have all been hit pretty hard by BABIP right now.

    Comment by Bradley Woodrum — April 20, 2011 @ 6:10 pm

  12. Well played, Sam.

    Mathematically, yes, Posada would be more “lucky” if his homers went for doubles — or even singles — instead.

    Obviously and logically, no. Posada, as we observe, has been unlucky on his balls in play (i.e. not in fans’ hands), but he has still been fortunate enough to be product despite that.

    Comment by Bradley Woodrum — April 20, 2011 @ 6:12 pm

  13. How can that be when logic is part of the foundation of mathematics?

    Comment by Six — April 20, 2011 @ 6:54 pm

  14. Not sure where the appropriate place to put this is (which, ironically, is part of the reason i have to make this post in the first place, but the layout of this website’s main page is really really poor.

    1) you cant even read the full titles of most articles because the space allotted to the “recent article” heading is way too small.

    2a) there is no place where you can easily see all articles sorted by day. if you click on “recent articles” you get a page full of previews. which is completely useless because you have to scroll around looking for what you want.and anyone who starts reading the preview of an article must then click on the link for the full writeup anyway – makes no sense.

    2b) there should be a page where ALL articles (for a given day, or week or whatever) are listed in the same place. No previews. Just titles, dates, and author listed so we can see all of them without having to scroll around and wed through the dumb previews.

    3) maybe its just a compatibility issue with Firefox, but when after posting a comment, you are sent to a blank page and you cant do anything from there. you cant even refresh the page – you get an error message. So to see your comment you have to post it, wait for the blank page to load, go back a couple times, refresh the page then scroll back down to see if you post went through.

    4) Comments section is not user friendly at all.
    there needs to either be threaded replies that are easier to use/read, or a quote function. Its almost impossible to follow the comments in high traffic articles because nobody can tell which comment another comment is replying to.

    5) sorry to post this here but there is no place i can find where it will be seen by the people who run the site.

    Comment by cs3 — April 20, 2011 @ 7:14 pm

  15. “BABIP = LUCK” is not mathematics; it’s just an oversimplification.

    There’s nothing unlucky (for the batter) about hard hit balls going over the fence rather than off the fence.

    Comment by Sam — April 20, 2011 @ 7:20 pm

  16. I’d suggest emailing your ideas. When you do it publicly like you did, it shows up the guys at the site and makes you look bad for doing so. Plus, your “suggestions” sound more like demands, which probably isn’t appropriate considering the site content is free!

    Comment by Jay — April 20, 2011 @ 7:56 pm

  17. Oh man, I just posted this on Talking Chop and 2 other Braves blogs that has a large crowd of ‘Uggla signing was terrible’ and/or ‘Heyward needs more time in AAA’ peeps.

    All great blogs, but jeez. Hopefully it’ll make an impact, doubtful….

    Comment by Undocorkscrew — April 20, 2011 @ 8:16 pm

  18. 2b) Click “Blogs” in the top bar.

    Comment by phiFiFoFum — April 20, 2011 @ 8:50 pm

  19. when is fangraphs going to develop an xBABIP so we can understand these kinds of things better…?

    Comment by fredsbank — April 20, 2011 @ 10:45 pm

  20. Wow is Teixeira beasting right now….a 160 RC+ despite a sub-.200 BABIP?

    And is it just me or is Dan Johnson’s career BABIP in the range of about .150?

    I keep expecting him to rebound with some good fortune, but it never happens…

    Comment by EDogg1438 — April 21, 2011 @ 12:43 am

  21. thanks!

    not quite what i had in mind but much better than anything else ive been able to find

    Comment by cs3 — April 21, 2011 @ 12:49 am

  22. “Wisely and slow; they stumble that run fast.”

    When I saw that, combined with the title, I thought you were going to say that Posada had some sort of elite baserunning skills despite his incredible sluggishness. Now I’m just disappointed. ;)

    Comment by B N — April 21, 2011 @ 1:58 am

  23. “There’s nothing unlucky (for the batter) about hard hit balls going over the fence rather than off the fence.”

    You mean, its not lucky that a player hits a ball hard on a day when the wind isn’t blowing in? Its not luck that he hits a 330 foot fly ball to left in Fenway instead of Safeco?

    Comment by RC — April 21, 2011 @ 8:01 am

  24. xBABIP is complicated (it’s not just LD, GB, OF FB, IF FB). Speed is a big variable. So is tendency to pull the ball or go the other way. There are soft liners and hard grounders. Some guys (Jeter, Ichiro) just have an innate ability to “hit em where they aint”.

    Having said that, it couldn’t hurt for fangraphs to include *some* version of xBABIP.

    Comment by Yirmiyahu — April 21, 2011 @ 10:11 am

  25. Hmmm, the Yankees have three guys on that list. Sounds like there’s even more pain ahead for opposing pitchers.

    Comment by RobMer — April 21, 2011 @ 10:13 am

  26. You seem to be confusing “lucky” with “unlucky.”

    Comment by Sam — April 21, 2011 @ 11:08 am

  27. I rather like Chris Dutton’s xBABIP, but yeah, there’s definitely no end-all, be-all xBABIP out there. Each different way to calculate it relies on the creator to decide which variables to use and which ones not to use.

    Comment by Bradley Woodrum — April 21, 2011 @ 11:28 am

  28. It sure seems that way. In truth, though, he’s got .245 BABIP (and a .300 BABIP in the minors). Unless he’s radically changed his approach since getting called up last year, one has to imagine those numbers will return to earth.

    Comment by Bradley Woodrum — April 21, 2011 @ 11:47 am

  29. Sorry B N, he runs like a catcher. :(

    Comment by Bradley Woodrum — April 21, 2011 @ 11:48 am

  30. Yeah, but at the same time, I’d wager there’s plenty of pain ahead for Yankees starting pitchers too. If their batters aren’t putting a hurting on opponents, then they risk missing the playoffs.

    Comment by Bradley Woodrum — April 21, 2011 @ 11:49 am

  31. Specifically, Posada’s plight might be because he is swinging for the fences. Fly balls (not including homers) are VERY unproductive. Including homers they are better (for wOBA) than ground balls.

    Comment by Barkey Walker — April 21, 2011 @ 12:57 pm

  32. No.

    Comment by Kevin — April 21, 2011 @ 2:22 pm

  33. There is more to accessing good or bad luck for hitters than BABIP. If Posada has been unlucky with his BABIP, then he has made up for it with his 26.3% HR/FB rate, his career average is 15.6%.

    Comment by Kazinski — April 21, 2011 @ 2:25 pm

  34. Of course. But the point of this post is the “luck” of balls “in play.” Home runs are not in play. I’m sure we all expect Posada’s HR/FB rate to come down, but we also expect his BABIP, and therefor his AVG, to come up.

    Comment by Frank — April 21, 2011 @ 7:59 pm

  35. might be good to calculate xBABIPs based on last season’s stats.

    Comment by brendan — April 22, 2011 @ 4:17 pm

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