Depends how committed pitchers are to throwing him no FBs; if he’s getting few enough of them, he’ll stop cheating so much, and he might start getting better (read: any) contact on breaking stuff. At which point pitchers start throwing FBs again.
I guess what I’m suggesting is that he may get to a better equilibrium with younger/simpler pitchers while smarter pitchers and ones with broader repertoires completely own him.
Yeah the Yankees overpaid on Posada’s last contract, but the Yankees can get away with that more than most teams. The alternative would have been to let Posada go after 2007 and fill the gap with over-the-hill veterans on the cheap that likely would have produced less WAR than the expensive over-the-hill Posada did over the course of the contract. Was it really worth 52 million? Eh, probably not, but I don’t think there is really a clear-cut answer.
Comment by "The Model" Rick Martel — April 25, 2011 @ 2:15 pm
This is really just a convoluted way of saying “in my opinion Jorge looks old and slow”. Without the context of “looks old and slow” the data amounts to a meaninglessly small sample size. Surely, if Posada produced the same number over 18 games when he was 29, no one would take this analysis seriously. …and I’m pretty sure you could find a worse stretch of 18 games in Posada’s long career.
This is not to say that Posada is not, in fact, old and slow. It is just worth pointing out that this is more of a gut instinct scouting report than it is an objective analysis. We shouldn’t pretend anything else.
pish tosh. the whole point of analysis is to analyze something. we can say, for certainty, that jorge is old. is he slow? to what extent? what do the numbers say? i’m glad there is a thoughtful article that brings insight to what we have as current evidence.
what you have here is a pretty useless comment jason, unless your intent was to just nitpick and act like an eccentric asshat. if that’s the intent, mission accomplished.
I also think that once pitchers realize they should only throw him breaking stuff, he will realize that he shouldn’t swing as much at them. meaning that he might stop cheating as you say, but he will probably just swing less overall. and pitchers usually have less control over their breaking stuff than their FBs, so he will stop swinging as much, and see fewer strikes = more walks. unlike what the article says, i think that his walk rate will increase when pitchers adjust to him, although I’m sure his power numbers will drop. right now he will be a low OBP, high power guy, but i think he will transition to a high OBP guy, with probably less power (from fewer hits).
162 games (140 or so for a catcher) at the MLB level is unmatched at any other level throughout your life. At 39, having played 16 years in the MLB, his little league, high school, and college baseball would represent an incredibly small fraction of his time behind the plate.
Montero IS a DH. He is not a catcher and he is not speedy enough for an OF position. His best hope for a playing position is first base.
No need to trade him. Have him serve as a relief/back-up catcher, catching about 30 games. Have him backup at first another 15 games, and then have him DH the other hundred. That leaves plenty of DH time to rest A-Rod and others, while getting Montero in the game. No reason a team can’t use a .300/30 HR guy at DH at league minimum.
He has caught nearly 1600 games on the MLB level, and studies have shown that catchers start breaking down well before reaching that many games.
Regardless of what he is in catching years, he is still 39 in human years. Eventually, the hand speed just isn’t there to consistenly hit a baseball.
Not sure, however, we can say we’re there with Posada. He seems more lost at the plate than anything else, getting caught in between on pitches. We could sum that up to age, or we can sum it up to being in a slump. Why are older players never allowed to have a slump?
He has one injured year. Other than that he’s been highly productive. That’s not the definition of “insanely bad,” especially when a team has the Yankees resources. For the KC Royals, it would be insanely bad!
If anything, the numbers say the opposite of Pawlikowski’s conclusion, right? A BABIP of .086 is obviously an aberration no matter how weak his contact has been, and Posada is still drawing his walks and hitting homers. When his luck on balls in play regresses to the mean, he’ll look pretty good.
“A BABIP of .086 is obviously an aberration …. There is just no way his BABIP can stay that low.” Well, guys, that depends on just how old and slow he is, doesn’t it? At some point, presumably, he won’t be able to hit at all, or run anything out. But in any case, the particular numbers aren’t really the issue; the question is whether he hits well enough to DH for a good team with unlimited resources. Posada in his prime was the rare catcher who hit well enough to DH. At this point, though, who’s looking for upside? This is his last year, and the Yanks can eat what’s left of his contract without thinking twice, if it comes to that.
Posada’s current modeled BAVG, based on LD%, GB%, FB% and K% is something like .215. Which would make his current triple slash line .215/.313/.505 if he were actually hitting .215. OTOH, his HR/FB % is a rather preposterous 28.6%, so that has to come down. A lot.
No doubt about, Jorge’s in trouble so far this year. But you didn’t need me to tell you that.