FanGraphs Baseball

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  1. Tough question. McCann is probably the best bet, as he is the youngest and has already established himself as a bigtime home run hitter; however, his defense isn’t very good, and he may not stay at catcher long enough.

    Comment by vivaelpujols — May 18, 2009 @ 12:37 am

  2. I think Mauer has an okay chance; he could scrape out about 15 HR a year if he stays healthy. John Buck could get to 200, which would be quite an accomplishment.

    Comment by BIP — May 18, 2009 @ 1:07 am

  3. I’d say McCann has the best shot, with the caveat I don’t really think any of them get there. I’m not so sure how long Mauer can stay behind the plate either.

    Comment by Matt H. — May 18, 2009 @ 1:14 am

  4. What’s the latest on assessing the defensive contributions of catchers? Can we ballpark how many runs Pudge was saving in his prime?

    Comment by J.R. Mannetta — May 18, 2009 @ 2:18 am

  5. Methinks, M. Napoli has a good shot. Although, he has been injured for a good part of the last two seasons and is part of a platoon, he has moster power.

    McCann probably has one of the best shots. He is amazingly durable and, at 25, is almost a third of the way there.

    Comment by ineedanap — May 18, 2009 @ 2:55 am

  6. It depends how much transitioning to DH allows Posada to stick around for his part. Assuming he can maintain a 20-HR/year pace (big assumption, obviously), he’d need one additional year after his contract with the Yanks is up in 2011. Would a thirty-nine year-old Posada be able to play at DH for some team? There’s an outside shot he does it, if he still has the desire to keep playing once his current contract expires.

    Comment by Kevin S. — May 18, 2009 @ 3:05 am

  7. I am Matt Weiters.

    Comment by God — May 18, 2009 @ 5:58 am

  8. My gut feeling would be that Mauer has the best shot to play long enough and stay at catcher, health willing, but I don’t really see him having the power to get to 300 HR, and his health issues could end up being a major problem. McCann and Posada fit the power profile better, but Posada’s running out of time and I wonder how long McCann will stay a regular catcher, or how well his power will hold up if he does stay there for a long time. Weiters might be the one I would pick if I had to take a stab at someone to do it, but just because I don’t have that much confidence at picking any of the current catchers.

    Comment by Kincaid — May 18, 2009 @ 7:11 am

  9. I don’t see Varitek as having a remotely realistic chance at 300. He’s 37. Even if he played for another 6 years, which is unrealistic, he’d have to hit 22 per year to get there. He hasn’t hit 22 HRs in a season since 2005, and he’s already on the decline.

    Comment by Laura — May 18, 2009 @ 8:24 am

  10. Ivan has caught 2206 games in his career and Fisk caught 2226 (Bob Boone is at 2225). Ivan should get the record for games caught within a month or so, barring injury. I think you must have looked at their total career games, not just their games at catcher.

    Comment by JoeHova — May 18, 2009 @ 8:25 am

  11. This post showed up on Google News when I was doing my daily search for news on Matt Wieters, and there was a little picture box next to the search result, showing a trimmed-down version of the graph above. I was amused.

    Comment by Rowen — May 18, 2009 @ 9:11 am

  12. If Mauer averages 15 HR a year for ten years he would have 200 and be 36. He needs to average 25 HR a year to have 300 by the age of 36, which is probably as long as he would be catching for. He is displaying a more power this year, but it’s probably too early to tell if its for real or not.

    McCann would need to average 21 HR a year to get to 300 by the age of 36, which is entirely possible.

    It’s also worth mentioning that Rodriguez was (almost certainly) a steroid user.

    Comment by DavidCEisen — May 18, 2009 @ 9:28 am

  13. Nah, Piazza’s feat isn’t impressive. 70%of the time runners succeeded in stealing a base from him. That’s too much. Plus, when he hit, he never used his legs. Everybody else relied on the power of their legs, but not Piazza. He made his numbers in the steroid era.

    It isn’t fair to punish everybody except Piazza. Piazza isn’t special, he doesn’t belong with that group.

    Comment by CC — May 18, 2009 @ 9:44 am

  14. Funny how this guy didn’t get nailed to the cross for steroids when he is nearly a poster boy for what the drug(s) can do to a body, and career. Just deny deny deny boys, save face. Apparantly that’s all we (the public) need to look the other way.

    Comment by Matt B, — May 18, 2009 @ 11:05 am

  15. Posada would probably have hit another 20 this year had he not been heart. When he comes off the DL he can hit another ten or so. That gives him 236 at years end. Two more years of 20 after that and he has 276. He can do it.

    Comment by Raul — May 18, 2009 @ 11:21 am

  16. Well, if you’re going to bring up PEDs you can’t leave out Piazza either.

    Comment by joser — May 18, 2009 @ 12:13 pm

  17. You wish you could be Matt Wieters.

    Comment by Kevin S. — May 18, 2009 @ 12:48 pm

  18. Well, I was looking at it using the “3/4 of games at catcher” thing. So Mauer could DH for several years after turning 36. Sure, he’s a longshot, but I think he’s got the best health chance of getting enough games at catcher. Obviously it’d help if he sustains his power gains so far this season.

    Comment by BIP — May 18, 2009 @ 10:12 pm

  19. Citizens Bank or Petco?

    Comment by Curtis — May 18, 2009 @ 10:34 pm

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