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  1. I believe that Coco. Crisp is currently rifing a 78 AB streak of his own.

    Regarding the odds of Duncan’s streak: it really seems rather meaningless when talking about taking a walk. Anyone, myself included, could break that streak this year. As you noted, the truly remarkable part is that he stayed in the line-up.

    Comment by Danmay — May 3, 2011 @ 2:28 pm

  2. lol, Damn Dave, you weren’t lying when you said you spent 12+ hrs doing baseball research a day typically. Nice research man. I take it Vlad’s got a better chance playing mega millions than getting that Mariano Duncan status. How’d you come up with 1 out of 25 for the walk probability? Is there 24 other possible outcomes he can have at the plate, and does it include his walk rate history, or is that the same probability for a walk that everyone has when they step to the plate all things being equal?

    Comment by Young Gung — May 3, 2011 @ 2:51 pm

  3. 1/25 = 4% = Duncan’s career walk rate, as mentioned in the article.

    Comment by Yirmiyahu — May 3, 2011 @ 2:54 pm

  4. *smacks self*…I’m trippin, thanks man.

    Comment by Young Gung — May 3, 2011 @ 2:56 pm

  5. Also remarkable is that he held down the #2 spot in the lineup for almost the entirety of the streak. Jim Fregosi (Phillies’ manager) must’ve liked him.

    If he’d been moved to #8 in the lineup, surely a IBB would’ve ruined his spot in baseball history.

    Comment by Yirmiyahu — May 3, 2011 @ 2:57 pm

  6. Who needs to walk when you can bunt for doubles.

    Comment by D4P — May 3, 2011 @ 3:01 pm

  7. Excellent! I already have tickets for that O’s/Reds match-up. I hope that history will be made!

    Comment by Mitch — May 3, 2011 @ 3:06 pm

  8. A #2 hitter is supposed to be your team’s best contact bat. This helps with hit and runs and moving runners over.

    A guy that can go up there hacking as much as Duncan did, almost guaranteeing contact with the ball, would be an ideal #2 batter.

    Comment by Gimpy — May 3, 2011 @ 3:13 pm

  9. I don’t think it’s that remarkable that he held his spot in the line-up. People didn’t talk about walks in 1994 the way they do now. People saw his ~.270 batting average and thought he was a decent hitter.

    Comment by vivalajeter — May 3, 2011 @ 3:19 pm

  10. I’m not sure, but it probably has something to do with the count, as you have a 1/2 chance of getting a ball, or something along those lines, and you have to get 4 balls total.

    Comment by MiM — May 3, 2011 @ 3:27 pm

  11. just kidding

    Comment by MiM — May 3, 2011 @ 3:27 pm

  12. Lovely article

    Comment by bender — May 3, 2011 @ 7:51 pm

  13. Clearly, Dave rolled a 1 on his 24-sided die while battling Vladimariano, the wildly slashing, two-headed jheri-curled Dominican dungeon boss that stood between him and this blog entry.

    Comment by Choo — May 3, 2011 @ 8:09 pm

  14. He walked the streak is over

    Comment by Heyward — May 3, 2011 @ 11:08 pm

  15. Another non-walker of note was journeyman outfielder Alejandro Sanchez. Sanchez did not draw his first MLB base on balls until his 5th season (1986) and 208th career plate appearance. Alas, poor Alejandro would see but 7 more MLB plate appearances in his career.

    Comment by reillocity — May 4, 2011 @ 12:48 am

  16. Sweet sweet irony.

    Comment by TheGrandSlamwich — May 4, 2011 @ 7:16 am

  17. Gimpy, you realize teams are allowed to score runs after the first inning, right?

    Why would you want to give a horrible hitter the 2nd most PA’s on your team, especially w/ the other dogmatic belief of batting an average hitter leadoff because he’s fast?

    Comment by Joe R. — May 4, 2011 @ 11:02 am

  18. First Kimbrel/Venters, then What’s wrong with Liriano, now this. Write an article about how the Yankees will win the WS or McCourt will keep the Dodgers.

    Comment by gdc — May 4, 2011 @ 11:19 am

  19. A #2 hitter is supposed to be your team’s best contact bat. This helps with hit and runs and moving runners over.

    A guy that can go up there hacking as much as Duncan did, almost guaranteeing contact with the ball, would be an ideal #2 batter.

    That is completely congruent with traditional baseball thinking. Some would say that TLR and a couple others still feel that way.

    There is some value in handling the bat with a runner on base. But, my view and the view of statistical analysis are in line with each other, when I think the absolute best thing a #2 hitter can do is take a walk, bringing up my #3 hitter with 2 guys on base instead of one.

    Pujols is going to hit a 3-run homer whether the #2 “H & R’d” the batter to 3rd or whether he walked and now there’s 1st and 2nd.

    I think we’ve learned a lot about the increased value/appreciation of walks, and the lower aversion to strikeouts.

    Being hacktastic is tolerable in some cases … particularly those where speed and/or power is a crucial part of their game. Lots of stolen bases can make hacking an overall plus, as do hitting a lot of extra bases.

    There just are not enough situations in the game where Mariano Duncan grounding to the right side with nobody out, advancing the runner to third, to make him a valuable #2 hitter. My guess is that run expectations see [1] runner on 3rd, 1-out, and [2] 1st and 2nd no outs, as relatively similar situations, with perhaps the latter leading to a higher run expectancy (but maybe similar number of times that a single run is scored).

    The #2 guy is better off just getting on base. A .269 OBP is not good performance in the 2-hole. Heh, I said 2-hole.

    Comment by CircleChange11 — May 5, 2011 @ 10:26 am

  20. Vlad walked for his second game in a row.

    Comment by zgv — May 5, 2011 @ 3:40 pm

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