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  1. “There’s nothing to worry about.”

    I disagree. His velocity was down significantly and he was largely a 2 pitch guy for his first outing, with max velocity of about 93 mph. While you can explain this by raising the fact that it’s his first start, you factor in that his career is spotted by lots of time missed and the massive price they paid for him, there’s plenty of reason for concern.

    Sure the results were still solid, but they didnt pay for solid. They paid an ace price, whether the public realizes this or not. Greinke’s ceiling is a guy who can make the ball do anything between 57-97 mph. If you would watch a game once in a while, you would realize that the Greinke we saw in his last outing was a distant cry from his ceiling. The potential for this being his new normal is plenty of reason for concern.

    Comment by puffy — May 6, 2011 @ 9:37 am

  2. To call the 2009 season a mirage really diminishes baseball. Nobody has ever won the Cy Young every single year. Nobody is the best pitcher in baseball every single year of his career.

    Fact is, humans have good days and bad days…..ball players can have great seasons and good seasons.

    Many very good pitchers do indeed have that great season, once, sometimes twice, now and then a guy will have a third great season. Why use the term mirage? These kinds of seasons are possible. Nobody thinks Grienke is a Cy Young pitcher every single year…..no pitcher is.

    Stat geeks take the fun out of baseball with their hyperbolic terminology. Calm down and get out of the fetal position occasional and enjoy the game and find a better way to communicate what is happening on the field because what Grienke did in 2009 was certainly no mirage, it really happened.

    Comment by LionoftheSenate — May 6, 2011 @ 9:55 am

  3. How do you explain the consistency of a Roy Halladay?

    Comment by lexomatic — May 6, 2011 @ 10:08 am

  4. Actually, I think that this comment took the fun out of baseball.

    Comment by phoenix2042 — May 6, 2011 @ 10:16 am

  5. Don’t bring up FIRP or that WAR hootenanny or any of that peripheral-whats-it. Just tell us if he’s a gamer or if he knows how to win. Maybe you could tell us if he’s a force on the mound or if he’s a bulldog. Just be sure to avoid any hyperbole like mirage please, lest you offend the non-stat inclined.

    Comment by Piccamo — May 6, 2011 @ 11:34 am

  6. Halladay in case you haven’t noticed spent 10 years as a good not great pitcher…..

    Comment by LionoftheSenate — May 6, 2011 @ 12:00 pm

  7. Nearly every player that wins a CY Young or MVP is having an anomaly season.

    The stat geeks are inarticulate. Less dismissing and more explaining…..please.

    Comment by LionoftheSenate — May 6, 2011 @ 12:02 pm

  8. He has just 2 Cy Young’s in 14 seasons…….that’s called a mirage folks.

    Comment by LionoftheSenate — May 6, 2011 @ 12:06 pm

  9. Which 10 years?

    Comment by Help me, I'm curious. — May 6, 2011 @ 12:06 pm

  10. I honestly have no idea to respond to those comments. Part of me thinks its trolling. The other part thinks its someone who legitimately feels that way and is posting at the wrong site for such a mindset. Part of me thinks its shtick. IM SO CONFUSED.

    Comment by Eric Seidman — May 6, 2011 @ 12:32 pm

  11. just awful. go, and never darken this door again.

    Comment by shibboleth — May 6, 2011 @ 12:39 pm

  12. Mirage is perhaps not the best word to describe the season, but all-time certainly fits. I’ll go with that one. And no worries here about Greinke… he’ll be in excellent form by mid-season. No good reasons to expect otherwise.

    Comment by shibboleth — May 6, 2011 @ 12:41 pm

  13. Hey Eric, I have a script in the works about a baseball writer who starts every post with a series of mind-numbingly obvious observations, do you know anyone who’d be interested?

    Comment by Jim — May 6, 2011 @ 1:04 pm

  14. Have you guys taken the Seidman challange?

    http://praiseball.wordpress.com/tag/eric-seidman/

    Comment by Jim — May 6, 2011 @ 1:06 pm

  15. Pretty much everything that could have gone wrong for Greinke did in his first inning, and yet his numbers were still “ok”.

    In the first inning there was an error, catcher’s interference, and a slow rolling single. Uggla was out in front trying to pull an outside offspeed pitch that rolled between third and short. That is three “undeserved” baserunners in one inning.

    The next three innings he pretty much deserved his numbers, though. But two errors and a catcher’s interference will rack up the picth count.

    Comment by glassSheets — May 6, 2011 @ 1:12 pm

  16. Sounds like a pretty boring movie.

    Comment by Eric Seidman — May 6, 2011 @ 1:13 pm

  17. Ideally he will have an open mind and learn why the stats we use actually matter. He’s on the wrong site if he thinks he’s going to persuade “stat geeks” that they’re wrong. If he is trolling, we will figure it out soon enough when he posts more.

    The article was well written and informative. Obviously too early to tell how Greinke’s season will go, but good stuff for those of us who don’t follow the Brewers.

    Comment by Piccamo — May 6, 2011 @ 1:17 pm

  18. Everyone just assumes that the move to the NL Central means that Greinke will be facing easier competition this year compared to last. The reality is that last year the average hitter Greinke faced had a line of .265/.334/.415. The average Brewers starter last year faced an average hitter of .268/.335/.421.

    Comment by ctt8410 — May 6, 2011 @ 1:27 pm

  19. Good knowledge, I know I assumed he’d have it easier.

    Comment by Matt — May 6, 2011 @ 4:21 pm

  20. What about the first out, which should have been a safe call? That was sort of a break if you don’t include the fact that he would have been out anyway if Fielder could actually field.

    Comment by Dealer A — May 6, 2011 @ 4:53 pm

  21. I thought about that, but he should have been out anyways. The umpire calling him out was a break given that Fielder blew the play, but Prado should have been out based on the ball he actually hit. Greinke beat him to the bag by a quite a bit too, not sure why Fielder didn’t flip it to him.

    Comment by glassSheets — May 6, 2011 @ 5:06 pm

  22. But it will be in English, which is the key to all great films.

    Comment by Jim — May 7, 2011 @ 2:22 pm

  23. Unless you’re one of those people who pretends to like foreign films.

    Comment by Eric Seidman — May 7, 2011 @ 3:11 pm

  24. “He has just 2 Cy Young’s in 14 seasons…….that’s called a mirage folks.”

    And Tom Seaver had 3 in 20 seasons. What’s your point?

    Comment by Old Hoss — May 7, 2011 @ 4:42 pm

  25. I don’t think Brewers fans should be concerned yet, but if he doesn’t improve within 2 months then I think they should. He’s kind of a head case and the likelihood of him ever winning another Cy Young is pretty low. There are just 16 pitchers in history who have won the award multiple times. I realize that he doesn’t have to win the Cy Young award to be productive, that he can be really good and it’d be worth it.

    Right now I’m unsure of Greinke. He has been really inconsistent throughout his career. He might end up like an emo version of Zambrano. Inconsistent but brilliant when he gets his shit together.

    Comment by Antonio bananas — May 9, 2011 @ 3:19 am

  26. I would expect his velocity to be up tonight, if not I would be concerned.

    Comment by Ice Cube Makers — May 9, 2011 @ 11:10 am

  27. One thing you didn’t mention, his LOB% last year was an abyssal 65%. Which is incredibly low for a guy with his skills. This helps explain the difference between his ERA (4.17) and his FIP(3.34), and xFIP(3.6). Even if he continues with his peripherals from last year, without improving back to his 2009 Strikeout rate, he should be in line for more of a low 3′s ERA.

    Comment by slash12 — May 17, 2011 @ 4:15 pm

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