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  1. One of the better What’s Wron With” articles. I like how you brought in the F-Strike% and Zone% analysis along with providing a suggestion for improvement. Well done.

    Comment by Dan — May 6, 2011 @ 11:14 am

  2. Having watched Volquez a lot this year, your hypothesis has merit. Sometimes he will lose a feel for the strikezone for an inning at a time and you can almost here Uecker in the backround, “Ball 8, Ball 12, Ball 16…” He routinely misses his spots, but his stuff is so good that when he misses he’s often getting swinging strikes anyway. I remember him trying to go low and away with a fastball in his last start, and instead struck the hitter out when it ran up and in. You are right to suggest that when the hitters are swinging, he is often running into deep counts and can’t be trusted to throw a strike at 3-2.

    The walks tend to come in bunches, but when he gets locked in (especially with his change-up, which sometimes he cannot control at all), he is devastating – often reeling off two or three innings where the hitters cannot hit a ball squarely. Illustrating this point, in his last game against Florida: 5 walks, only 2 hits.

    Comment by Colin — May 6, 2011 @ 11:23 am

  3. What’s wrong with Jonathan Sanchez?

    Comment by psychump — May 6, 2011 @ 12:17 pm

  4. Cliff’s 2010 data point should have its own chart.

    Comment by neuter_your_dogma — May 6, 2011 @ 12:44 pm

  5. the R^2 on zone% vs. BB/9 was really shocking to me. I wasn’t expecting .7 or anything but .12 wow

    Comment by adohaj — May 6, 2011 @ 12:52 pm

  6. I don’t see anything wrong with him

    k/9 10.89
    bb/9 6.16
    hr/9 .47

    sure he is walking more but the change in his k’s and hr’s have made him get about the same results

    Comment by adohaj — May 6, 2011 @ 12:55 pm

  7. Excellent Carson. Interesting to see the Zone% and F-Strike% graphs. Many of these metrics I use/intrepret with the assumption that they correlate to what we expect. Good to see that maybe I should tone down my usage of Zone% as related to control numbers and focus more onF-Strike%.

    Comment by Mike Podhorzer — May 6, 2011 @ 12:58 pm

  8. Stats don’t tell all. Aside from averaging just over five innings per start, he is not covering first on grounders to first,not backing up home and not running after bunting! Seems in a fog. http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2011/05/05/great-moments-in-bunting-jonathan-sanchez-edition/

    http://www.kffl.com/player/13636/mlb

    Comment by psychump — May 6, 2011 @ 1:43 pm

  9. How does this compare to his career? A quick glance at his player page makes things look pretty consistent except for his 1 big year (09?), but with more GBs. He may be an enigma, but his performance has been pretty consistent (when the season’s done.)

    Comment by lexomatic — May 6, 2011 @ 1:59 pm

  10. wow. this is definitely one of the best analytical articles i’ve ever seen on this site. time to buy low!

    Comment by tim — May 6, 2011 @ 2:40 pm

  11. Excellent article. The only one I’ve read that has gone beyond the ordinary stats for this site and didn’t just fall back on luck and regression or base assumptions about the player (he’s old and done, he’s still in his prime so wait). Really good stuff that kept me reading rather than just skimming through. Thanks.

    Comment by rjbiii — May 6, 2011 @ 2:46 pm

  12. great article. He is extremely frustrating. You see how good he can be and then he walks 2 straight.

    Your absolutely right about balls in bunches. I think it’s mostly mental. If a break doesn’t go his way his a mess for awhile.

    What are the stats for TJ recoverers as far as bb/9 goes? He just reached 100 inn. post TJ in the majors. How much longer before he gets the control back?

    Comment by john — May 6, 2011 @ 5:55 pm

  13. I’m assuming the PED problem he had shouldn’t be considered an issue due to the velocity he still has.

    Comment by mike — May 6, 2011 @ 7:39 pm

  14. The general recovery time is 12-18 months. Volquez is over that latter number now, but every player’s different, obviously, so we can’t draw any hard conclusions.

    Comment by Carson Cistulli — May 7, 2011 @ 1:14 pm

  15. I traditionally think of Carson as the of the color commentator of Fangraphs, but with a saber twist, but this was straight up analysis and impressively some of the better analysis on the site.

    Comment by AndyS — May 7, 2011 @ 8:16 pm

  16. I’ve seen him enough and it boils down to one thing: the guy refuses to pitch to contact. He simply tries to strike out every single hitter, especially when he’s in a jam. Instead of attacking hitters he nibbles and works himself into so many 3-ball counts. A lot of 3-ball counts is bad for any pitcher, it a disaster when your control resembles that of Rickey Vaughn.

    Comment by jpg — May 9, 2011 @ 2:02 pm

  17. I agree with this

    Comment by bryan — May 11, 2011 @ 2:47 pm

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