Seconded. I essentially traded Josh Johnson for him based on peripherals that I believed refuted the calls for extreme regression, and what I saw of him on game clips. Had never seen him pitch a full game before this season, but I’ve been blown away by his stuff. It’s not just his off-speed stuff that is video game level, he’s running, cutting, and sinking at least two different FB’s and just making good hitters look silly. Credit LaRussa with limiting his pitches so far. Chris Carpenter says he has the best stuff on the staff, and from what I know about Carpenter, he doesn’t just pop off and say something like that unless he means it.
I really wish analyses here on FG that rely on projections would include MLB video because I think it can make a big difference, and the users of this site are more than capable of taking what they see into account.
maybe groundball % was one of the categories. also, as a Card’s fan myself, never underestimate this factor. I stopped playing fantasy baseball because half of my team always ended up being Card’s players ’cause I keep finding reasons to draft/trade for them, and I subsequently finished at the bottom of every league I was in.
Not only have Garcia’s “peripherals” like K% and BB% improved, all his “peripheral peripherals” have, too: he’s in the zone more often, getting swings more often, and getting whiffs on more swings, especially out of the zone.
Garcia is somewhat of a rarity in that he’s a lefty sinkerballer (or high movement 2-Seamer). He’s a high GB pitcher that doesn’t give up many homers, which is reflected in both his ERA and FIP.
His total walk and K numbers are decent, given that he doesn’t give up bombs.
His BABIP could more or less be sustainable as Carp and Wain put up (consistently) lower than average BABIPs despite having Schumaker at 2B and numerous replacement level 3Bs.
The injury concerns were real due to his minor league injuries. I have no idea if he changed his approach, his mechanics, or both.
He also might be the only left-handed starter that Duncan has had that used the “Duncan Approach” of pounding the zone with movement, although it could be debated whether he pounds the zone or not.
When it comes to lefties his age with his same approach, there are probably very few comparables. Most of the talented young lefties are in the Willis/Ankiel mode of being high K and high BB. Youngish lefty starters are not generally successful allowing so many BIP.
He has been a tremendous, and welcome, surprise.
When we look at how he might “fail”, it seems unlikely that he’ll stop getting decent amounts of K’s, or drastically increase his walks, or start giving up a bunch of HRs. He could regress some and still match his overall value of 2010, which was good.
Comment by CircleChange11 — May 10, 2011 @ 12:28 am
Because you touch yourself at night
Comment by TheMooseOfDeath — May 10, 2011 @ 2:08 am
It’s May, let’s see if his arm holds up after the All Star break when he has to be Adam Wainwright for a full season.
Comment by Antonio Bananas — May 10, 2011 @ 3:16 am
..even if it is only “essentially”..that’s crazy
Comment by bauerpauerhauer — May 10, 2011 @ 8:46 am
narcissistic dirtbag that will be a top 5 fantasy SP at the end of the year..
Comment by bauerpauerhauer — May 10, 2011 @ 8:48 am
Smart people make mistakes.
And even not-so-smart people can spell the word “smart.”
LaRussa’s season is being saved in large part by products of a farm system he has generally disparaged and scorned. See Garcia, Rasmus, McClellan and a parade of bullpen arms – Salas/Sanchez/Boggs/Motte.
braun is also in a slump right now. not that i dont think that is HUGE, but braun could just as easily sent one over the wall
Comment by the jewish hammer — May 10, 2011 @ 7:48 pm
Kyle Lohse is making Wainwright’s absence more tolerable.
The Cards were counting on Garcia too be good.
What StL needed was someone other than Carp and Garcia to be good. They needed Lohse to carry his weight (earn his contract).
The chane and cutter both have reverse splits. I don’t see how a lefty can be dominant without both, unless you’re RJ. Andy Pettitte was a good model.
Having pitches that move “away from the barrel” to both RHBs and LHBs allows pitchers to pitch to both sides of the plate regarless of hitter handedness.
The cutter is also the last remaining piece to fill the Charlie Morton puzzle. I know I’ve said it before, and I’m not trying to sound like a guru, but every pitcher 11yo and up should throw a fastball, change and cutter. All three can be thrown for strikes, with movement, and are easy on the arm.
When Wainwright returns, I’d prfer him to be more like Garcia and drop the slider for the cutter. I think the cutter is slider enough to be almost as effective, without the elbow risk. The cutter has enough movement to induce swings while missing the barrel.
Comment by CircleChange11 — May 19, 2011 @ 5:26 pm
I bet he won’t be back to own up to it. I also don’t think, being a Colts fan, that the Colts are overrated. The Jets, Patriots and Steelers are usually the talk of the town. Not the Colts.
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