May 26, 2011 at 9:16 am
Keep it going Jay!
May 26, 2011 at 9:50 am
What gets lost sometimes in these articles is context: The kid is only 24 years of age. Impressive to say the least
May 26, 2011 at 9:59 am
He is one of the top young players in baseball. I believe that if he stays healthy, 35 bombs is not out of the picture. And I, sadly, don’t even have him on one of my fantasy teams.
May 26, 2011 at 10:06 am
One thing I’ve noticed from watching a lot of Bruce over the last few years, he gets into grooves when he goes with the pitch. It may seem obvious, but when he is really on fire like this last month he stays back and drives the ball. When he struggles he is way out front trying to pull everything, and as a result gets eaten alive by breaking balls and anything outside.
I haven’t looked at his spray charts, but it’d be interesing to see if he has more hits the opposite way this month in addition to his high line drive percentage.
May 26, 2011 at 10:56 am
There are issues with your analysis.
First, “full season” is a deceptive term. Bruce came up mid way through his first season and broke his wrist his second season. In both instances, his power numbers were better that they were during his full season last year, he just didn’t get into enough games to top 30+ HRs. His average HR total/162 games is 32, incidentally.
Secondly, you are ignoring the wrist injury. A broken wrist is widely understood to sap a player’s power for around a year. Last year, his power picked up almost exactly one year after that injury and he’s been pretty steady since them. Obviously, he isn’t going to SLG .700
I fully expect, barring injury, he’ll finish 3ith 30-40 HRs.
May 26, 2011 at 1:02 pm
Yes, I believe there was an article on Fangraphs along these lines last year about how wrist injuries are a big deal. See also Quentin, Carlos.
Donald Trump says:
May 26, 2011 at 1:58 pm
You say “he has been through streaks like this before… when Bruce hit 15 home runs in just 153 at-bats… one other month in which he clubbed 9 home runs, and two instances where he was able to hit 7 home runs in one month. So while his current power surge is encouraging, it’s unlikely Bruce will be able to sustain it for all that long.” How, exactly, does the fact that he has had great power streaks before mean that this time around it is just a streak and not an indication that he has gotten better? This is, after all, a 24 year old who has hit 28hr in his last 357 at bats. Maybe April was the fluke.
May 26, 2011 at 2:35 pm
I think the way to approach a player like Bruce who has obvious big time home run capabilities is to note that in whatever order he hits them, his homeruns are going to come. I think its fair to expect that he won’t continue to hit 9 homers a month on out, but it is certainly reasonable barring injury for him to keep a pace of 6 or 7 homeruns a month. It may be where he hits 2 in June and 10 in July or something like that, but the point is that the homers are going to come given enough at bats. He seems similar to Troy Tulowitzki. There are stretches every year where Tulow just hammers the ball every time he hits it. He’ll go a couple weeks without anything, then just light up for a couple weeks. Some guys are that way.
lex logan says:
May 26, 2011 at 3:17 pm
I heard that Bruce was the first Red since Frank Robinson to hit 20+ HR’s in his first three seasons, so I decided to see how Jay matched up so far in a WAR graph. Um, well, a St Bernard looks big if you don’t stand him next to an elephant…but Bruce does track nicely with Harmon Killebrew.
Bruce has been hitting lefties harder since his surge began late last year..by the way, am I missing platoon splits on Fangraphs? Anyway, his OPS for the year is 1.071 vs. LHP, .849 vs. RHP, career .746 & .839. So basically he’s hitting righties normally but has switched from struggling against to crushing lefties. It will be interesting to see how that plays out over the season.
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