Obviously it’s a really small sample size, but he’s apparently improved his defense from last year to this year as well. Watching Upton last year reminded me of watching Felix when he first started, the potential for greatness was simply astounding.
You think he’s powerful now, wait until you realize that only 3 of his 26 career homers have traveled less than 400 feet. Imagine when he starts getting some cheapies like Dustin Pedroia (0 of his 26 career homers are OVER 400 feet)
I did a little back of the envelope calculation yesterday and assuming he would regress to a .330 BABIP (using the quick-and-dirty LD%+.12), his line would look like .285/.365/.565 or something similar.
To me one of the most impressive homers he hit was on April 26th of this year. It was as hard a line drive as you can possibly hit. Its apex, according to hittracker, was only 45 feet off the ground(!), yet it still managed to clear 370 feet.
He will eclipse the $200M barrier with his FA deal after the 2013 season. He’ll be an FA at 26, and he’ll be playing a defensive position where he’s important, but unlikely to regress much until his late 30s. In other words, he’s about as perfect of a candidate for a 10-year FA deal as you could possibly have.
Prior to the recession, I had him pegged for a $250M deal. But even in the revised economic climate I’m comfortable saying that he’s the next best bet to join A-Rod in the 200 club.
(It’ll be hard for Pujols to get an 8-year deal at age “31” after 2011).
Just as a fun little stat, J-Upton had the longest average home run of ANY hitter last season. At age 20. All I can say is WOW. That’s some serious superstar right there. I put a bet on him with a friend for 30 homers this season, and it’s looking good.
I’m not sure Upton will sustain that ISO for the rest of the season. That very high BABIP and a ton of doubles suggests more fly outs in the future. Also, with no substantial change in his contact and swing rates, I wonder if his K rate isn’t due to climb back up. Perhaps not, as he’s getting far fewer Ks looking (9% last year, 5% this year.) I have no idea what a significant sample is for kL%.
mevs, J-UP is not even hot yet,i know cause i watch every game & have since “07”, he has been relatively consistant which is rare to say for a 21 year old kid.When he is hot you wil no it cause he has not been “white hot” yet, i can’t wait.As far as Jay Bruce, i love the kid but come on now, do i need to pour cold water over your head to wake you up? First of all Bruce is hitting what .214 & his HR totals are an example of what a treat it must be to hit in that ban box of a ball park! Justin would probably have 20 plus HR if he played there! Anyway Justin is on pace to hit 30 + HR, 100 + RBI, 100 + Runs & hit .300 +, not bad for a 21 year old kid! Can you remember the last at 21 to do that? AP!!