I really wouldn’t want to send any real talent for a guy who can’t even stay on the field. Bedard is too much of a question mark concerning whether he will be able to contribute anything at the end of the season and into the playoffs.
Bedard’s also got the highest HR/FB rate of his career this year and he’s yielding more flies than before, which obviously doesn’t bode too well at Chase. But then again, a trio of Parra-Young-Upton is one of the absolute best defensive outfields in baseball, and as a back-end starter it’s probably not as big a deal. The real problem with looking for Bedard is that the M’s are only a game and a half out in their own division and have also been rolling as of late.
Comment by big league chyut — May 31, 2011 @ 1:35 pm
i love the article last week on fangraphs about buster posey opens door for colorado. no mention of ARIZ.. such lack of foresight.
Yep – good points – Bedard maybe wouldnt be the best fit, but i was just trying to think of an example of a rental front line starter… The idea would be that AZ wouldnt give up a pile of talent, more just paying the rest of the salary for the year. The Ms spot in the standings wouldnt support a sell off either… Not sure of K-Rods situation with the vesting, but that might be a good BP addition…
Another thing: Towers said earlier in the month (pre-streak) that he would look into swapping bench players for back-end starter types – I’m wondering how much that still holds now that the team seems to be gelling as a unit? Did a great job dumping Armando while he still could, but (as much as I love him for his clutch hit against the Astros recently) could a guy like Nady or (dare I say it) Brandon Allen be trade bait? The problem is that I fail to see how any of them could net a rental SP that would improve over even a regressing Collmenter or Duke. Oh, the perils of having a fairly solid team…
Comment by big league chyut — May 31, 2011 @ 1:56 pm
Not playing above projections:
C. Young: .238/.297/.438
K. Johnson: .224/.284/.428
M. Mora: .257/.271/.307
D. Hudson: 4.13 ERA
Z. Duke: 7.0 Innings pitched
There’s five under their ZIPS and PECOTA off the top of my head, There may be more.
I’m going to go out on a limb here. Everyone seems to be predicting a rental SP as we approach the deadline. I think they might actually look to improve their rotation long-term or stand pat until they can do so in the off-season. Let me explain. Talks about cost and team payroll are always at the forefront when it comes to the Dbacks and trades. With a salary of ~$56 million this year, the Dbacks team payroll is the lowest its been since 2007. Looking at direct, current, team payroll is always misleading for this team because of their record amount of deferred salaries. In reality, this year’s team payroll is closer to $70 million. After next year the Dbacks rid themselves of a large bulk of those deferment obligations. They’ll still have obligations for another 4 years but only in the $1-2 million range per year as opposed to the $14 million this year and next. So my vision is that the Dbacks will sign guys like Montero, Johnson and possibly Drew to extensions at the end of this year and use some of the new financial flexibility to go after a front-line starter they can sign long-term. What do you think?
Nice one. I’ll take the more direct approach – couldn’t the D-Backs have had mostly the same roster this year in the big leagues but also with a huge advantage of Haren instead of Saunders, if they never went through with that self-defeating trade?
That is the kind of trade that a team in rebuilding mode would consider, but the D-Backs problem last year was the bullpen, which is no reason to go into rebuilding mode since bullpens are so volatile from year to year.
That mistake will probably cost them a playoff spot this year.
You think the Angels will take Joe Saunders in a deal for Haren? After all, he is a proven winner and we saw his grit on display in his last start.
Comment by big league chyut — May 31, 2011 @ 3:46 pm
Check back in September and see where things are…. If they cool off and the Rockies get on a streak like AZ is currently on, they’ll be back even or ahead. Given the Rockies past performances (particularly in the second half) make this scenario much more likely than AZ winning it going away.
That was posted a week and a half ago. Bedard has made another start since going 6 innings without allowing a home run. That makes five starts in a row now where he hasn’t allowed a long ball. All of his home runs came in his four starts (2, 2, 2, and 1). Even with his still current elevated HR/FB rate, Bedard is posting a 4.05 FIP and a 3.47 xFIP. He’s also at a cumulative 46% ground ball rate, closer to his hey-day years of 2006 and 2007.
Call the earlier starts “rust” if you want, since he hadn’t thrown against major league competition in some time. I’m not saying he’s totally back either, but he’s better now than he was at the beginning. That should make him an attractive target to someone.
It takes more than a bad bullpen to lose 97 games, so it’s hard to blame them for trying to get something for Haren. This team showed pretty much nothing last year to inspire any confidence in any short term success. And while last year’s team was fundamentally the same that rode to the NLCS in 07, nothing they have done since then really spoke of anything besides 07 being a total fluke (and having the best record in the NL with a negative run differential says something).
As a DBacks fan I wish I was seeing Haren out there instead of Saunders every fifth day (and a Haren/Kennedy/Hudson sounds dreamy), but I can’t fault the reasoning behind the move. I still think this team is a few years away, and anything that may happen this year is gravy and probably just brings a few more dollars in from the hit and miss Phoenix crowd.
Haren really wanted out of Arizona badly and made that especially clear to management. At the same time ownership demanded a salary dump. I agree in general that it was an ill advised salary dump. Dipoto took a lot of flak for his comments about Saunders and wins when he had the press conference. But I know him personally, and can tell you what he was really looking at with Saunders is at least getting a guy back who can post up and eat innings while waiting for a younger guy to develop.
Dipoto deserves some credit for most likely making the correct choice of minor league players available from the Angels at the time.
You write an article about the Diamondbacks and not one mention of me. I am 6-5 and over my career I have 27 starts with 15-8 record, 3.15 ERA, and 1.14 WHIP. I think I have had something to do with this turnaroud. Now thank me please!