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  1. Fact: Jose Bautista eats Adam Dunn’s weight in mini wheats for breakfast.

    Comment by moonraker — May 31, 2011 @ 2:21 pm

  2. So basically, if he was hitting better, his stats would be better, and the team would have better results?

    I’m not really sure how useful it is in discussing what his season would look like if he had 5 extra home runs and 7 extra singles. Of course this added production would help the White Sox, but the same could be said about any player for any team. Fact of the matter is, he hasn’t performed at that level.

    Comment by James Lewis — May 31, 2011 @ 2:21 pm

  3. I think 86 wins will win the central. Those 1-2 wins missed out from a slow start by Dunn and 1-2 wins from a slow start by Rios could cost them the division.

    Comment by Dustin — May 31, 2011 @ 2:28 pm

  4. i’m not sure how useful you are james.

    Comment by jaywrong — May 31, 2011 @ 2:29 pm

  5. So basically, if he was hitting better, his stats would be better, and the team would have better results?

    That’s basically what I took from the article.

    If he was hitting more home runs, his ISO would be higher and he’d be earning more base runs … as well as, helping the White Sox win more games.

    I don;t say that as a smart arse … but if you summarized the article, that’s basically what it says.

    Dunn’s problems are easily diagnosed from a quick look at his stat sheet. His power is down, he’s dunking in fewer hits than normal (even for him), and he’s striking out far more than he has previously in his career.

    From an advanced analysis standpoint, those aren’t the problems … those results are caused by the problem.

    K-Rate, BABIP, and HR/FB are all tied together in regards to “seeing and hitting the ball well”.

    I don;t know exactly why he’s striking it well, whether it’s a vision, timing/mechanics, selection thing … but I would like to see the ‘problem’ get fixed. As consistent as he has been throughout his career, there has to be something.

    Comment by CircleChange11 — May 31, 2011 @ 3:06 pm

  6. Dunn was known to have 20/10 vision, as I recall.. so if his vision of something else has proven to be a fly in the proverbial Duointment, his lack of average Dunnian swattage, has cost the Chisox 1 win. I get it, and I guess that is kind of interesting.

    I hate to see dreaded HR outputs when they slip to 38, even in a tougher_to_ding_’em park

    Comment by Donkey — May 31, 2011 @ 3:52 pm

  7. “Normal” Dunn is worth about 4-5 batting wins, while “normal” Rios is worth 2-3. So I think Rios’s relatively slow (hitting) start cost them quite a bit less.

    Comment by Drew — May 31, 2011 @ 4:29 pm

  8. Dunn has a 1.222 Power Factor for May. That’s better than what he did last year.

    Comment by Lewie Pollis — May 31, 2011 @ 4:40 pm

  9. Kudos to Joe for mentioning the appendectomy as a possible cause of Dunn’s slump so far this year

    Comment by gonfalon — May 31, 2011 @ 6:26 pm

  10. The usefulness is that HR/FB rate and BABIP are known to fluctuate significantly. Players generally regress to career rates (or league averages, depending on how you take it) for these categories. Thus, it is useful to look at what a luck neutral Adam Dunn would be this year, if his variable numbers looked like they did in the past.

    Even more, it’s useful to know that a luck neutral Dunn still shows a decline in his skillset.

    The nuance, it burns!

    Comment by Travis — May 31, 2011 @ 7:29 pm

  11. Dunn’s HR/FB is way down. Is there any reason to think it will continue to be this way this season?

    Comment by lailaihei — May 31, 2011 @ 7:47 pm

  12. Yeah. Just look what it did to Matt Holliday.

    Comment by MikeS — May 31, 2011 @ 8:00 pm

  13. I think Hawk Harrelson is to blame. That sad sack of shit will bring anything the White Sox do down. Maybe Dunn likes to catch a replay of the game but can’t watch it because of how awful Harrelson is.

    Another explanation could be his age, or it could be that he’s actually on a good team. Pitchers pitch differently to good teams. If Dunn blasts a 600 foot home run when he plays for the reds or nats before when they weren’t good, it doesn’t matter. You’re up 6-1, 7th inning, you get a little careless. Now he’s on a good team in a competitive division, guys are probably pitching him more cautiously.

    Comment by Antonio Banans — May 31, 2011 @ 8:37 pm

  14. Sounds like another bitter Cub fan who can’t help but talk about Hawk

    Comment by Sox2727 — May 31, 2011 @ 10:11 pm

  15. Matt Holliday is also a more complete and better all around hitter. Just because Holliday bounced back from the appendectomy better than Dunn, doesn’t mean it didn’t have an effect on Dunn. Everyone’s body reacts differently, look at the difference in recovery time for concussions between players.

    Comment by Sox2727 — May 31, 2011 @ 10:17 pm

  16. another sox fan obsessing over a cubs fan’s opinion :/

    Comment by steve-o — May 31, 2011 @ 10:50 pm

  17. Maybe he’s suffering from “Pat Burrell” syndrome in that DHing and not playing the field has throw things out of whack for him. Burrell said playing DH ruined his routine and that he had a hard time staying mentally focused during the game. Personally I thought Burrell was basically done as a slugger while in Tampa and that he was using those excuses because he was either:

    A. In denial
    B. Full of shit (he was shot, he knew it, but needed to throw something at the wall figuring it might stick)

    Then San Francisco picks him up and suddenly he’s mashing. Dunn made it clear he didn’t want to be a DH. Thanks to interleague play he got a chance to do it and probably hated it. The only reason Dunn signed with Chicago was because they made by far the most aggresive offer. In keeping tabs on Dunn and the other big names during the hot stove season, I got the feeling he had to be talked into signing there. We sometimes forget that these guys aren’t robots. Maybe he’s just miserable. Who the hell knows.

    Comment by jpg — May 31, 2011 @ 10:56 pm

  18. It was a lot more useful than yours.

    Comment by douche mcgee — June 1, 2011 @ 12:34 am

  19. Adam Dunn off to a bad start with a new team like Carl Crawford. His start reminds me of Papis in 2009 when he had an awful first 2 months and only 1 HR coming into June, and then led the AL in HR the rest of the way.

    Me thinks the White Sox could win the division this year.

    Of course, I like the White Sox chances a lot better if Ozzie gets the axe. Time for a change there. I bet the players would be so relieved they go on a tear. .

    Comment by pft — June 1, 2011 @ 2:03 am

  20. Also, Adam Dunn has a 797 OPS against RHP’ers, and 156 OPS against LHP’ers.

    Comment by pft — June 1, 2011 @ 2:08 am

  21. This is a rather obvious point but no one has made it yet. Dunn is also playing in the AL for the first time in his career, and the AL is considered to be quite a bit stronger than the NL.

    Comment by Robbie G. — June 1, 2011 @ 2:54 am

  22. “Since then they’ve gone 15-12 and have scored 4.22 runs per game. That mark is second in the division only to Detroit, and has the Sox inching back into contention”

    * 4.22 rpg is “2nd in the division for May”, or the entire season? Confusing…

    Comment by PaulScarfo — June 1, 2011 @ 8:40 am

  23. steve-o…i think john danks said it best “you’re a f***ing clown”

    Comment by Sox27 — June 1, 2011 @ 9:07 am

  24. Yeah it has done wonders for Carlos Pena

    Comment by Mr. wOBAto — June 1, 2011 @ 9:44 am

  25. This is one of the more surprising performances of the year, for me. As a Twins’ fan, I was quiet bummed when he signed with the Sox.

    Comment by mike wants wins — June 1, 2011 @ 9:50 am

  26. Despite J.P. Ricciardi’s big mouth… was he right about Dunn?

    Comment by lexomatic — June 1, 2011 @ 10:00 am

  27. No, look at his career numbers and Rcciardi’s “success” in Toronto.

    Comment by Sox27 — June 1, 2011 @ 10:21 am

  28. I’m not a Cubs fan and I think Hawk is an unprofessional homer.

    Comment by Anon — June 1, 2011 @ 11:51 am

  29. Is the pitching better in the AL, though?

    Comment by Anon — June 1, 2011 @ 11:52 am

  30. For the benefit of those who haven’t been paying attention, the previous Fangraphs article on Dunn (written by someone else) didn’t even mention the appendectomy, even though it has been widely reported that Dunn tried to come back too soon thereafter.

    Comment by gonfalon — June 1, 2011 @ 1:07 pm

  31. Not at all actually, I live in Missouri, which means most people hate the Cubs around here. I’m a Braves fan and I love baseball. WGN is available to me, so anytime there’s a good ChiSox pitching matchup or a game I want to watch, I turn it on and Hawk Harrelson makes me turn it off. I’d rather listen to Adolf Hitler than him. He’s that bad.

    Comment by Antonio Bananas — June 1, 2011 @ 4:35 pm

  32. The only people who consider it stronger are fans of the AL. The AL’s pitching is shit. Most “good” AL staffs would be middle of the pack in the NL, especially the AL Central. That’s not it. He’s older and he’s on a good team for the first time in forever. He’s being pitched to more carefully.

    Comment by Antonio Bananas — June 1, 2011 @ 4:38 pm

  33. Is he a homer without a doubt and does he bitch constantly about umpiring no question. To compare him with Hitler is obviously hyperbolic. Is he in the upper echelon of MLB announcers, I wouldn’t say so but I think the implication that he’s the worst announcer in the league is an overstatement.

    I’ve said for years he’s in the early stages of Harry Caray syndrome, I give it another few years before all the Jack Daniels fully erodes his brain and he starts calling players the wrong name (amazing Steve Stone has officially gone full circle).

    Comment by Sox27 — June 1, 2011 @ 5:56 pm

  34. I was wondering also if DHing bothered him. I think there has been a demonstrated DH-penalty for players moving from the field to DH. nothing like Dunn’s power outage tho.

    Comment by brendan — June 1, 2011 @ 6:06 pm

  35. re: the DH penalty… has this been noticed separately from the normal aging decline and the fact that guys move to DH as they get too old to field well?

    Comment by jrogers — June 1, 2011 @ 8:11 pm

  36. You also realize it’s easier to pitch in the NL since you only have to pitch to 8 actual hitters, and in some lineups 7?

    Comment by Sox27 — June 2, 2011 @ 9:29 am

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