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  1. When I saw this thread title I shed tears of happiness. I was going insane throughout that entire draft. I broke things.

    Comment by dbake005 — June 2, 2011 @ 11:06 am

  2. If Zimmerman donned a Phillies, Braves, Yankees, or Red Sox jersey… it would make all the difference in the world. He got snubbed as an all star last year (only because the NL MVP Joey Votto had to make it in on the final vote, somehow), and snubbed on the gold glove a year ago as well. I’ve loved him since his Virginia days, and I can understand people wanting Longoria over him… but after that, there is no argument… It is Longoria and Zimmerman #1 and #1A, yet he is hardly mentioned.

    I’m getting mad just mentioning this.

    Thank you, Dave, for stating the obvious that everyone else refuses to.

    Comment by dbake005 — June 2, 2011 @ 11:11 am

  3. I’m amazed how similar those numbers are.

    Why were there so many pitchers selected (11 of 30)? Its been my understanding that pitching performance is a lot more volatile and hard to predict (especially the young guys!). I would think you want a guy who could help you every 1 days instead of every 5.

    Comment by eric_con — June 2, 2011 @ 11:12 am

  4. Perhaps it will turn out that the addition of players like Strasburg and Harper (both of whom were selected in the franchise draft, along with the Nats young catcher Wilson Ramos) to the Nats will bring the exposure that Zimmerman needs to be appreciated. Every time I go to Nats Park, I can expect to see at least one play in the field from Zim where I think “no one else could have done that.” And his flare for walk-off home runs, while not something that’s valued much by statistics, seems like something the national media would have latched onto.

    I just hope that the Nats have the sense to lock him up long-term before he becomes a free agent after 2013.

    Comment by jcj5y — June 2, 2011 @ 11:13 am

  5. If they don’t lock him up long-term, I’ll be truly upset at baseball for awhile.

    He and Longoria both get in grooves where you can tel from their first at-bat that they will just be on all night.

    Comment by dbake005 — June 2, 2011 @ 11:15 am

  6. Great article Dave. When I was following this draft yesterday, I was trying to guess each pick. Well, after pick #5 or 6, I think I said to myself “Bautista or Zimmerman” for every pick up until Keri took Bautista.

    Comment by n_jaeger — June 2, 2011 @ 11:15 am

  7. Ryan Zimmerman is a lot like Scott Rolen in that untill he has at least one eye popping offensive season he will continue to be horribly underrated the the average fan.

    Much like Matt Holliday or Choo in Cleveland, Zimmerman gets so much of his value by not being below average at anything.

    Jack Welch once said that differentiation is key in valueing a commodity, the problem with guys like those three is they are firmly in the upper echelon of every pack but don’t stand out in any back of the card stats.

    Comment by Mr. wOBAto — June 2, 2011 @ 11:16 am

  8. I think we can all agree

    Ryan Zimmerman is no Wilson Ramos

    Comment by Jon — June 2, 2011 @ 11:17 am

  9. Was anyone else stunned that Neftali Feliz was taken at all? He’s been worth -0.4 wins thus far. I’d never have taken a reliever there but even so there are many many relievers better than him, particularly one Jonny Venters.

    Comment by Scuzzlebutt — June 2, 2011 @ 11:18 am

  10. Well said, Jon.

    Comment by dbake005 — June 2, 2011 @ 11:18 am

  11. Why would you be upset? So they took Ramos I would say those two are a push.

    Comment by Mr. wOBAto — June 2, 2011 @ 11:19 am

  12. I agree that Wilson Ramos is MUCH better than Miguel Cabrera.

    -Omar Minaya

    Comment by Dandy Salderson — June 2, 2011 @ 11:21 am

  13. Lol @ Glanville.

    Comment by Bron — June 2, 2011 @ 11:21 am

  14. That draft was a great idea ruined by some really inexplicable picks.

    Comment by skipperxc — June 2, 2011 @ 11:21 am

  15. One other factor that keeps Longoria on the minds of every stat-inclined reader: surplus value. The two may be clones, but Longoria is signed to the most team friendly contract in baseball, by such a wide margin, that you can’t have a conversation about small market success without mentioning him by name. If the franchise player draft was re-done, factoring contract, Longo would’ve been #1 very, very easily. I can admit this has colored my perception of him as a player.

    Comment by Cosx — June 2, 2011 @ 11:21 am

  16. The guy who took him did see him as a starter going forward, I assume Venters never leaves the pen.

    Comment by Mr. wOBAto — June 2, 2011 @ 11:21 am

  17. It would have been interesting to let them go for awhile and see how the teams turned out.

    Comment by dbake005 — June 2, 2011 @ 11:22 am

  18. In other words, Ryan Zimmerman: The new Chase Utley. By the time he starts getting appreciated, he’ll be in decline.

    The recipe seems pretty simple. Do everything well, play great defense, but don’t hit for elite average or power. Tulo made the mistake of making too many highlight plays and getting Web Gem play.

    Comment by Rick — June 2, 2011 @ 11:22 am

  19. Zimmerman won the web gem crown two years ago, I think.

    Comment by dbake005 — June 2, 2011 @ 11:23 am

  20. Ah ok, that makes it marginally more defensible, still, Feliz over Tommy Hanson? Seriously?

    Comment by Scuzzlebutt — June 2, 2011 @ 11:28 am

  21. From the very bottom of a Nationals fans heart, thank you Dave!

    Comment by David — June 2, 2011 @ 11:29 am

  22. EXXXXXXXXactly

    Comment by dbake005 — June 2, 2011 @ 11:30 am

  23. Actuallly, that draft is more an indictment of ESPN than anything else.

    Do most of you look to ESPN for analysis anymore?

    Comment by JCA — June 2, 2011 @ 11:32 am

  24. They should have went a few more rounds, I’d be very curious to see what they end up with.

    And I’m sorry, but the Ramos pick was odd, he’s not even an everyday player. The Mauer pick wasn’t great either. There were still a lot of good players not selected: Holliday, McCutchen, Kemp, Bruce, McCann, Youkilis, Reyes, Haren, Weaver, Cahill, etc…

    Imagine if someone took Jeter…

    Comment by Pat — June 2, 2011 @ 11:46 am

  25. I was blown away by how inexplicably horrible that draft was. Aside from the obvious mistakes like Feliz, Ramos ahead of Miggy and Zimmerman, the chat among the drafters was inane. It seemed that a generally agreed principle was “get your ace pitcher now.” I think you draft a stud fielder WAY before a stud pitcher if you’re building a franchise. Injury concerns and the fact that fielders impact 150ish games versus 30ish are sending me in the direction of a fielder.

    Comment by Chris B — June 2, 2011 @ 11:47 am

  26. and hitting home runs every day for a month and leading his team to the playoffs.

    Comment by jrogers — June 2, 2011 @ 11:51 am

  27. I completely agree with most of this article, except I think you brush off the injury concerns too easily. He missed 63 games in 2008, 22 games in 2010 (injury stints at both the beginning and end of the year) and so far he has only played in 8 games this year. Yes, an abdomen issue isn’t nearly as big of a concern as some other parts, but he’s now accumulated ab, thigh, shoulder, trunk injuries over the last three years. This isn’t to say longoria has been without his injuries, but I think you gloss over the injury concerns a bit too easily.

    Comment by jpjazzman — June 2, 2011 @ 11:51 am

  28. Starlin Castro being taken, but not Zimmerman, made me want to throw up.

    Comment by Patricio — June 2, 2011 @ 11:58 am

  29. lets push it back ten years, to 2001

    pujols rookie year, ichiro (ROY MVP), AROD, JETER… pretty interesting right?

    its all opinion, writers are suppose to do this so people talk more about it. tats part of the business. “do this” means to irritate u, make u piss off, destroy things…. thats why not many people who are educated listen to the BS that ESPN radio gives out anymore… sick and tired of the nonsense…

    anyhow, i think zimmerman and hosmer got snubbed.

    sometimes guys dont pann out, franceouer, beltran, etc. its not looking good for hanley, j reyes, and mauer.

    Comment by m123 — June 2, 2011 @ 12:02 pm

  30. Explain that last part…?

    Comment by dbake005 — June 2, 2011 @ 12:04 pm

  31. Don’t include the Braves in on that list of teams. Many Braves players are tremendously underrated and undervalued because of where they play too. Had Chipper Jones played for the Yankees or Red Sox his name would be mentioned with the same reverance as players like Mickey Mantle and Joe Dimaggio.

    Comment by JT Grace — June 2, 2011 @ 12:11 pm

  32. AJ MASS IS AMAZING LOLZ

    Comment by Friedman — June 2, 2011 @ 12:12 pm

  33. “sometimes guys dont pann out, franceouer, beltran, etc. its not looking good for hanley, j reyes, and mauer.”

    What exactly do you mean by this comment. Just seeing Franceour followed by Beltran confuses the heck out of me.

    Comment by Balagast — June 2, 2011 @ 12:14 pm

  34. Exactly like… huh??

    Comment by dbake005 — June 2, 2011 @ 12:15 pm

  35. ESPN does analysis like MTV does music.

    Comment by Sean — June 2, 2011 @ 12:17 pm

  36. Maybe he should stay healthy to begin with

    Comment by Slevin Kelevra — June 2, 2011 @ 12:18 pm

  37. Obviously Zimmerman should’ve been picked, but the gap between him and Longoria is bigger than WAR represents. One does it in the AL East, the other in the NL.

    Comment by Jim — June 2, 2011 @ 12:19 pm

  38. In fairness to the Castro pick he is 5 years younger than Zimmerman, and he plays a very thin position and is putting up a .735 OPS at the age where Tulo was getting ready for the Draft, and Hanley was putting up a .740 OPS in AA

    Comment by Mr. wOBAto — June 2, 2011 @ 12:20 pm

  39. Zimmerman would be the same player for the Rays as he is in Washington.

    Comment by Mr. wOBAto — June 2, 2011 @ 12:21 pm

  40. Dave, I assume if you were drafting a whole team and not just one player you would not have taken a 1B first?

    Comment by Jim — June 2, 2011 @ 12:22 pm

  41. Rick Sutcliffe was just impressed with Neftali’s ability to go over there and solve that thing.

    Comment by Head Bee Guy — June 2, 2011 @ 12:27 pm

  42. Running down the list of picks confirms that someone like me should be the one on TV talking about baseball, rather than the type who chooses an already peaked, injury-laden, high risk SP like Josh Johnson sixth overall in the midst of a historically run depressed environment like today.

    Glanville’s pick is a HILARIOUS exclamation point that makes me hope he ends up a GM in the AL Central someday.

    Comment by Eminor3rd — June 2, 2011 @ 12:27 pm

  43. I watched that draft live yesterday and was stunned by several of the selections and the non-selections. I did my own list and I had Zimmermann in my top ten list of players I would select.

    The only pitcher that I would have selected in the top 30 was Felix Hernandez. Pitchers are too up and down and injury prone to build a franchise around.

    There were some completely outrageous picks in that draft. Neftali Feliz is a closer and may always stay a closer. There is no way he belonged on the list. Michael Pineda was selected based on how he has done in 2 months of his rookie season. Tommy Hanson was equally impressive his first 2 months of his rookie season but hasn’t been quite as dominant since then.

    However, the most obvious omission was Brian McCann. Joe Mauer has had one great offensive season and has suffered injury problems for the last 1 1/2 years. Buster Posey hasn’t even played a full year in the majors yet. However, the fact that Carlos Santana AND Wilson Ramos were also selected and not McCann was off the charts crazy. McCann averages 24 HRs per 162 games played, has a career BA of .290 with a career OBP of .367. He is a 6 time all-star at age 27 (and he has been named an all-star by the managers and players, not the fan votes). The Braves pitching staff also leads the NL this year so he also can call a pretty good game too. BMac deserved the nomination more than Santana, Pineda, Feliz, Ramos, and a couple of others.

    Comment by JT Grace — June 2, 2011 @ 12:28 pm

  44. Come on, there’s no way I could’ve got Matt Capps for Ryan Zimmerman.

    Comment by Bill Smith — June 2, 2011 @ 12:29 pm

  45. I was surprised by the selection of a 1B that early too. You can’t argue with Votto’s numbers, but 1B is a relatively easy position to fill. I would have gone with Zimmerman or Braun at that spot.

    Comment by JT Grace — June 2, 2011 @ 12:31 pm

  46. PLEASE do a FanGraphs one to compare!

    Comment by Brad — June 2, 2011 @ 12:32 pm

  47. I agree… someone needs to show them how it’s done. Maybe 3 rounds with the rules a bit more clearly defined.

    Comment by Joncarlos — June 2, 2011 @ 12:41 pm

  48. I would basically ignore prospects like Trout and Harper if I were really doing this draft. The best strategy would be to build a “win now” team and pick up prospects later. The money you make on Pujols, Cabrera, Longoria and Zimmerman now can be reinvested later into the farm system and free agency. The idea of building a baseball team around a teenager is nuts. If this were an NBA draft it would be a totally different story.

    Comment by Chris B — June 2, 2011 @ 12:46 pm

  49. to be fair, using glanville as an example is a little unfair, even to espn

    Comment by juan pierre's mustache — June 2, 2011 @ 12:47 pm

  50. I don’t think you take a catcher in the first round. How many World Series winners have been built around a stud catcher?

    Comment by Chris B — June 2, 2011 @ 12:48 pm

  51. Dude has a degree from Penn and writes for The New York Times. His pick is offensive because he’s smart enough to know better.

    Comment by Chris B — June 2, 2011 @ 12:50 pm

  52. Hopefully he can stay healthier than Rolen over his career. A healthy Rolen is a surefire HoF…the reality Rolen is much more borderline as a result of all that time missed.

    Comment by NEPP — June 2, 2011 @ 12:52 pm

  53. Yeah, there’s no good pitching in the NL East…

    ~starts whistling~

    Comment by NEPP — June 2, 2011 @ 12:54 pm

  54. Flashback to 1992:

    “I’m taking Brien Taylor. He’s a can’t miss guy I can build my franchise around!!!”

    Top prospects are great…until they suddenly aren’t.

    Comment by NEPP — June 2, 2011 @ 12:56 pm

  55. I disagree. The hardest positions to fill with guys who can hit and field the position are catcher, SS and CF. If you fill one of these positions with a stud hitter then you are already ahead of the game.

    Comment by JT Grace — June 2, 2011 @ 1:02 pm

  56. I agree to a certain extent. Since the point was to pick your franchise player for the next ten years, I wouldn’t draft Pujols just because of his age. My strategy would be to draft guys who are age 28 or younger with no significant injury history. I would stay away from pitchers altogether except maybe for King Felix. I would try to get SS, C, or CF first if at all possible. I also would not draft a prospect, because like others have said, they may not pan out.

    Comment by JT Grace — June 2, 2011 @ 1:07 pm

  57. I started an Ottoneu league this year, and was able to nab Tulo AND Zimmerman with reasonable auction bids. I expect to be set on the left side of my infield for the next decade.

    Comment by Stew — June 2, 2011 @ 1:10 pm

  58. Ramos is a push with who?

    If its Zimmerman, you’re pretty dumb dude. Don’t breed.

    Comment by jaywrong — June 2, 2011 @ 1:21 pm

  59. I don’t know many players that are mentioned with Mantle and DiMaggio.

    We know who Chipper is just fine. Atlanta got a lot of love during the 90′s, as much as the Yankees and more than the Red Sox.

    Maddux, Glavine, and Smoltz were household names for that decade as well. Move to San Diego and root for the Pads if you want to bitch about being underrated or undervalued…

    Comment by jaywrong — June 2, 2011 @ 1:24 pm

  60. yeah since it’s so much tougher to find a bat in LF

    Comment by microwave donut — June 2, 2011 @ 1:34 pm

  61. I assume he means going forward, although he may mean unrealized potential(Beltran better mean Francis in this case)

    Comment by Mr. wOBAto — June 2, 2011 @ 1:48 pm

  62. McCutchen was the biggest omission to me.

    He’s been worth 9.4 WAR in 2 seasons of service time with upside for more. Oh and he’s 24 and he plays center with the athleticism to stick there. There are really 30 better players out there? Really?

    Comment by microwave donut — June 2, 2011 @ 1:48 pm

  63. In fairness to your analysis, that makes him a good 2nd-3rd round pick. There are far better candidates for the 1st round.

    Comment by Patricio — June 2, 2011 @ 1:59 pm

  64. Well you could argue that the big red Machine, and the Yogi era Yankees were built around a catcher

    Comment by Mr. wOBAto — June 2, 2011 @ 2:01 pm

  65. Why do I continue to pay any attention to who gets nominated for an Academy Award and who wins an Academy Award? Particularly ever since “Forrest Gump” won Best Picture? I cannot provide a good answer to that question. Nor can I provide a good answer to a related question, i.e., “Why do I ever watch ESPN or look at ESPN.com anymore?” I guess maybe my best answer is this: because I want to know what people are talking and thinking about, and, more specifically, I want to know what the purveyors/gatekeepers of information are peddling to the masses. But yes, ESPN is, at best, an embarassment.

    Somebody selected Wilson Ramos? Hilarious!

    Comment by Robbie G. — June 2, 2011 @ 2:04 pm

  66. zimmerman is the new beltran, at age 27 zimmerman will have 4-5 good years left just like beltran…its all about understanding foresight, guys like jason bay at age 27 dont last long…

    beltran 27 in 2004, 2008 was his 20/20 year after that nothing…
    jose reyes is 28 today, he’ll be lucky to hit 30 homers the rest of his career.
    jason bay was 27 in 2006, only 3 good years afterwards.
    hanley will be lucky if he finishes his career w. 275 HR.
    francouer is also age 27 and likely has 4-5 productive years left.
    mauer will be lucky to finish his career w. 175 Homers
    helton was 27 in 2001, only had 4 productive power years after. 2005 he only had 20 bombs.

    i can see why ramos age 23 got picked before zimmerman. hosmer got snubbed

    Comment by howie — June 2, 2011 @ 2:04 pm

  67. Totally agree. Set parameters like, all players are signed at 80% of their hypothetical FA value, or something, so that we’re not talking contract value we’re talking production. And that in this draft, you’d be picking your teams to completion, so position scarcity matters. etc. Would be fun to see.

    Comment by Telo — June 2, 2011 @ 2:12 pm

  68. Yep. Those were the worst picks of the draft by far. You are jumping for joy if Hosmer or Trout are 80% as good as Zimmerman. The only reason those picks are even close to defensible is if you are considering player control and contract value into the equation… which I’m sure they weren’t.

    Comment by Telo — June 2, 2011 @ 2:14 pm

  69. zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

    Comment by Telo — June 2, 2011 @ 2:14 pm

  70. I agree that SS and CF are premium positions that should be considered in this round, but a catcher that can hit is a luxury. A great defender with a decent stick could probably be found in a later round.

    Comment by Chris B — June 2, 2011 @ 2:15 pm

  71. Well it is a 10 year player they are asking you to take, you can do a lot worse than a SS who just turned 21 who has a 105 OPS+ and is coming off an age 20 season where he was 4th in wOBA among SS.

    If you want to win this year there are plenty of better choices, but if you are talking 10 years Castro is a solid selection.

    Comment by Mr. wOBAto — June 2, 2011 @ 2:17 pm

  72. His fielding is a small question mark, but agreed, he is on the list of snubs and probably should have been in the 25-30 range.

    Comment by Telo — June 2, 2011 @ 2:17 pm

  73. Ramos is pretty good

    Comment by Mr. wOBAto — June 2, 2011 @ 2:18 pm

  74. The 2010 Giants.

    Comment by Jack — June 2, 2011 @ 2:23 pm

  75. Damn howie, you’re dumb.

    Comment by Oscar — June 2, 2011 @ 2:28 pm

  76. not really.

    Comment by jaywrong — June 2, 2011 @ 2:29 pm

  77. Oh good you turned on your sarcasm filter, although Ramos is exactly the kind of piece that Washington will need to surround Harper, Strasburg and Zimmerman with in order to reach contender status

    Comment by Mr. wOBAto — June 2, 2011 @ 2:32 pm

  78. @howie

    The reason Beltran hasn’t done anything since 2008, is cause he only played half a season in 2009 (where he was excellent in the 80 games he played) and was out most of the year in 2010. Now that he’s healthy again, he has a .381 wOBA.

    And @m123
    It doesn’t look good for Jose Reyes? You mean the guy who has the highest WAR of any player in the NL not named Votto? (And that’s only cause he missed the last 3 games because his grandmother dies).

    I’m waiting for the article “The Criminally Underrated Jose Reyes.”

    Comment by Evan_S — June 2, 2011 @ 2:34 pm

  79. u can call me back when zimmerman is a piece of crap in 2015. pat burrell was 27 in 2004 only 4 good years after,

    adam dunn 27 in 2007, only 3 good years after

    zimmerman will be a DH or 1st basemen in 2016, its 2012 meaning franchise player? u can find a younger 1st basemen or DH by then. looks like your the dummy

    Comment by howie — June 2, 2011 @ 2:38 pm

  80. The hardest positions to fill with hitters are C, SS, 2B, CF, in that order.

    Comment by bill — June 2, 2011 @ 2:50 pm

  81. Buster Olney’s worth reading everyday

    Comment by JohnnyComeLately — June 2, 2011 @ 2:51 pm

  82. I was waiting for that post…..

    Comment by mike wants wins — June 2, 2011 @ 2:56 pm

  83. yes mccutch is similar to carl crawford, their careers will probably mimic each other. or possibly j damon.

    mccutch 20/30 type of guy the next 3 seasons. with upside of 30/35 and then at age 33-35 about 18/20/.270-280

    Comment by donald — June 2, 2011 @ 2:57 pm

  84. I’m pretty sure Glanville still values batting average over all else

    Comment by JohnnyComeLately — June 2, 2011 @ 2:58 pm

  85. rocco baldelli, cant miss…. the next mantle!!!!!

    josh hamilton!!! woooohoooooo

    ian kinsler was also all hype, no 20/20/.240+

    history repeats itself………………………. b. harpeeeeer is foreaaaaaaal…. strasburg could be the next k wood or m prior… but he def. brings a circus atmosphere, i gotta love that

    Comment by donald — June 2, 2011 @ 2:59 pm

  86. the wilson ramos for m capps trade looking awful.. mauers contract…. similar to zitos…. awful…

    Comment by donald — June 2, 2011 @ 3:01 pm

  87. cant argue w. that… crash course to scott rolens career, after age 26 only 5 productive years.

    Comment by donald — June 2, 2011 @ 3:02 pm

  88. ramos is already a cleanup hitter at age 23…. sorta like hosmer who bats third at age 21…

    the talent that people saw in ramos was similar to posey and santana. even the minn announcers are denouncing that trade.

    Comment by donald — June 2, 2011 @ 3:04 pm

  89. Howie, if you’re going to make an argument that Zimmerman will decline, fine. But, using comparison players like Burrell and Dunn who were never close to his level isn’t going to help your argument.

    Comment by Mcneildon — June 2, 2011 @ 3:13 pm

  90. Overall, the whole franchise draft revealed how ignorant most espn analysts are about player values.

    1) Position players are far more reliable than pitchers. Pitchers are constantly getting injured. How many Randy Johnsons, Roy Halladays, etc. are there? The elite hitters normally stay excellent for a long time.

    2) Catchers have a tendency to get injured. This either a) hurts their hitting ability, or b) it moves them to another position. So the advantage of position scarcity is probably outweighed by the risks of the catcher position.

    3) In baseball, proven, elite players are way more valuable than prospects. (different in basketball, which has just 2 rounds). Even the elite prospects who become successful often take many years to reach their peaks, so long that they’re on another team…

    4) Timelines. Are you signing the 20 year old to a 15 year contract? If you can’t guarantee that he’ll be around in his prime in 6-7 years, then what’s the point? Give me 5 years of consistent, elite production.

    Carlos Gonzalez at pick 24 is nuts.

    Comment by thparadox — June 2, 2011 @ 3:24 pm

  91. youk’s on the decline, 3 solid years and then 2 ok to good years left. mccann probably 4 years to 6. weaver is $ and so is cahill.

    Comment by donald — June 2, 2011 @ 3:28 pm

  92. @mister wobato, i think you need to look up sarcasm. i do not think it means what you think it means.

    when i said not really, i meant… not really.

    @donald, that is more the function of line-up and current roster at hand. ramos is a solid catcher, but does not have a high ceiling, and will have zero affect on the nationals when compared to strasburg, harper, or zimm.

    he has some power, and good defense. but he is not a game-changer. simply moderately skilled and a cheap piece to the puzzle. expect norris to take over the next couple of years.

    you guys really need to do some research…

    Comment by jaywrong — June 2, 2011 @ 3:31 pm

  93. The Yogi-era Yankees were built around Dimaggio and then Mantle and I don’t think that any of these guys are in Johnny Bench’s ballpark. If Johnny Bench was on the board, though you’d be right.

    Comment by Chris B — June 2, 2011 @ 3:33 pm

  94. lets see start of 2008, pujols, tulo, hanley, braun, miguel cabrera, fielder.

    cabrera/fielder not even top 30 on this list anymore. neither is ryan howard.

    dont think pujols should be on the 2011 list.

    Comment by donald — June 2, 2011 @ 3:37 pm

  95. You mean, and hitting home runs every day for a month and leading his team to 3rd place. Still impressive!

    Comment by Scott — June 2, 2011 @ 3:39 pm

  96. Since 2001, the most valuable players in baseball have been the following:
    1. Pujols
    2. A-Rod
    3. Barry Bonds
    4. Lance Berkman
    5. Carlos Beltran
    6. Ichiro Suzuki
    7. Scott Rolen
    8. Chipper Jones
    9. Derek Jeter
    10. Chase Utley

    I’m really really confused how Beltran made your “sometimes guys just don’t pan out” list.

    Comment by Joof — June 2, 2011 @ 3:50 pm

  97. I was being sarcastic you ignorant git, doubly so when I said you had turned your filter on.

    I don’t think any thinking person with even a cursory understanding of advanced metrics would consider a 26 year old Zimmerman coming off of two consecutive 7+war seasons to be roughly equivelant of a 23 year old catcher who has a ceiling of Bengie Molina.

    Thank you though for your insightful and interesting rebuttal of an argument that wasn’t being made, you sir are a genius.(so glad I went and looked that word up)

    Comment by Mr. wOBAto — June 2, 2011 @ 4:15 pm

  98. right….. good foresight….

    Comment by donald — June 2, 2011 @ 4:29 pm

  99. Maybe – but Harper’s numbers are unprecedented – and some of the mega prospects have panned out – Griffey, A-Rod, Josh Hamilton (after awhile), Kinsler is a top 2B…

    Comment by Ton — June 2, 2011 @ 4:37 pm

  100. looking at the beltran argument, he was 26 in what year? tell me how many good years did he have after that. right… even wilpon his owner flames him as not living up to his contract. he will be lucky if he can go 350 homers and 300 SB for his career, not going to happen.

    utley at #10, really? utley at age 26 was mvp like, after that bust.

    zimmerman is 26 now, likely 5 good to great years left, after that u could find a sleeker younger model to replace him. same goes for mccann. mauer 28 now, likely 5 solid years.

    Comment by donald — June 2, 2011 @ 4:37 pm

  101. zimmerman wont sell season tickets like harper or stras do. all the buzz is about stras and harper.

    Comment by donald — June 2, 2011 @ 4:48 pm

  102. if you can’t make it obvious, then that’s your mistake.

    gib? should i start calling you a wino now?

    Comment by jaywrong — June 2, 2011 @ 4:50 pm

  103. hosmers first 99 AB produced superior numbers than ramos first 202 AB. just saying…

    Comment by donald — June 2, 2011 @ 4:51 pm

  104. Utley’s WAR by Age.
    24: .5
    25: 1.6
    26: 7.5
    27: 7.3
    28: 7.9
    29: 8.3
    30: 8.2
    31: 5.4 due to injury.
    32: This year.
    So, at 26 he was MVP level, and 5 years later, he’s still MVP level, and last year he was merely upper all-star level.

    Beltran’s WAR by age.
    21: .2
    22: 4.4
    23: .5
    24: 5.4 (2001, the start date in question)
    25: 5.6
    26: 6.8
    27: 6.6
    28: 2.7 (Anyone know why he hit for such little power this year?)
    29: 7.9
    30: 5.5
    31: 7.6
    32: 3.0 injured
    33: .8 injured
    34: 1.7 this year, on pace for 5.2

    So in 2001, when the OP said Beltran wouldn’t have worked out, you would have gotten MVP quality play in 7 season, another half season of MVP play, and this season again of high quality play. To say he didn’t work out is just silly.

    Comment by Joof — June 2, 2011 @ 5:09 pm

  105. Way to go, Stew! Keep us posted on your team!

    Comment by Austin Brancheau — June 2, 2011 @ 5:28 pm

  106. crim underrated is gordon beckham shouldve been taken instead of RAMOS

    Comment by dave — June 2, 2011 @ 5:30 pm

  107. you are all off topic, were talking zimmerman age 26 here. utley not a franchise player anymore neither is beltran when he was 26. wilpon said so and shouldve never signed him long term. there is a reason why GMs get fired.

    Comment by dave — June 2, 2011 @ 5:33 pm

  108. howie, it’s a good thing you mention home runs as your means of evaluating guys like mauer, beltran, reyes, h. ramirez, bay, franceour and helton, because a) dingerz are all that matter from a hitter and b) those guys all derive most/all of their value from their dingerz…

    Comment by fredsbank — June 2, 2011 @ 5:50 pm

  109. donald are you just howie posting under a different name? you make the exact same follies..

    Comment by fredsbank — June 2, 2011 @ 5:52 pm

  110. all of you are sure dumb

    Comment by oscar — June 2, 2011 @ 6:34 pm

  111. Zimmerman actually faced better pitching on average last year than Longoria, and usually faced it in less hitter friendly parks.

    Comment by D0nc0smic — June 2, 2011 @ 8:45 pm

  112. And what’s wrong with that, Oscar? Helen Keller had a movie made about her.

    Comment by Mcneildon — June 2, 2011 @ 9:53 pm

  113. Try Rotographs

    Comment by PaulScarfo — June 3, 2011 @ 1:02 am

  114. Howie, first of all you are comparing Zimmerman to Pat Freaking Burrell and Adam Dunn which is ridiculous. Then you say Dunn was 27 in 2007 and “only” had 3 good years after that? Would those years be 2008-2010, the last 3 full seasons that were played? So, he has had a horrible couple of months and he is completely done, huh?

    Comment by cobradc23 — June 3, 2011 @ 1:14 am

  115. You were going to take Bautista over Pujols? Really? He’s just a few months younger… You’d think the lead contributor to Fangraphs would be more aware of the limitations of a 200 PA sample size.

    Comment by Ted — June 3, 2011 @ 1:25 am

  116. Josh Johnson at 6? Anyone else have a problem with that? He is good but 6! Over a guy like Braun?

    Comment by Brennan — June 3, 2011 @ 1:56 am

  117. Man, its clear that the Fangraph authors would’ve destroyed that draft. Like Dave said, everyone was trying to “split hairs”, not many were trying to take the smart simple things. It amazed me how many people wanted unproven players or players with little to no draft pick as their first round pick over proven studs, some still relatively young.

    It just seems like every one over at fangraphs is simply more knowledgeable when it comes to baseball. Its like everyone else is at least one step behind on everything damn near. I will say that some of those picks, were seemingly senseless fan picks, namely JJ and Feliz. You have to put your personal likes aside at that point.

    Comment by Young Gung — June 3, 2011 @ 3:55 am

  118. Man, Ravech sure picked the right player for a whole host of stupid reasons…

    Comment by Jeff — June 3, 2011 @ 6:03 am

  119. Cool story, Bro

    Comment by Barnabas — June 3, 2011 @ 8:00 am

  120. With Gonzalez, you’re back to one of the fundamental questions of this draft – how much do you value youth and potential over experience and track record? While he’s only had one year, it was a heck of a year for a (6.6 WAR) – especially for a 25 year old.

    All that doesn’t make him a top 10, like his buddy Tulo. But it does put him in the discussion for top 30, and 24 is a very reasonable place to take him.

    Comment by Barnabas — June 3, 2011 @ 8:08 am

  121. There’s also the issue of 2010. I hear he was kinda good then, too.

    But I agree with your broader point – both Bautista and Pujols are getting a bit old to think of as decade-long franchise building blocks.

    Comment by Barnabas — June 3, 2011 @ 8:09 am

  122. Johnson is one of the best pitchers in the game, and I don’t have a problem having him among the first pitchers taken.

    However… The whole draft was filled with lust for starting pitchers, which, as has been pointed out numerous times on this thread, are both volatile and injury prone. So you’re absolutely right, 6 was too high.

    Comment by Barnabas — June 3, 2011 @ 8:14 am

  123. Ramos is no Zimmerman, but you guys underestimate Ramos more than you should. He is one of the best defensive catchers I have ever seen and he is only a rookie. Add to that, he is a pretty good hitter as well. I see Ramos as a year in and year out 4+ WAR catcher once he has a few years experience (junior year onward).

    Comment by kick me in the GO NATS — July 24, 2011 @ 1:10 am

  124. Yes, but he will win them more games!

    Comment by kick me in the GO NATS — July 24, 2011 @ 1:13 am

  125. the argument that Zim is better than Longoria when both are healthy is clearly true. Zim plays in a pitchers park and still has a better slash line. Zimm has faced on average better all round pitching than Longoria. Longo never faces Price or any of the Rays pitchers while the Nats have had terrible pitching, but have had to face superstar pitchers.

    Comment by kick me in the GO NATS — July 24, 2011 @ 1:29 am

  126. ESPN’s analyst are journalist. So they are inclined to pick guys for different reasons than a Fangraphs guy. They aren’t dumb just motivated differently.

    Comment by kick me in the GO NATS — July 24, 2011 @ 1:38 am

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