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  1. I wouldn’t go after Bedard if I was the Yankees, Jack Z might want Jesus Montero for him. This is the same guy who wanted Austin Jackson for Jarrod Washburn.

    Comment by Rbibaseball57 — June 3, 2011 @ 4:09 pm

  2. There has been a lot of talk in Braves world about Jiar J’s trade value considering the surplus of starting talent the Braves have coming up and the Boras-ness-nessity of his representation. What kind of mid-season/ post-season value would he carry?

    Comment by overtlybiasedfan — June 3, 2011 @ 4:12 pm

  3. That Jack Z guy is crazy. He turned down Montero (hitting .302/.337/.429 in AAA this year) and took Justin Smoak (hitting .246/.341/.464 in MLB this year) instead.

    Comment by CMC_Stags — June 3, 2011 @ 4:15 pm

  4. johan santana could be an interesting piece too. everyone seems to be expecting a firesale from my mets, and the guy is due back in july or august. even with some injury risk the dude is likely better than every name on the list above. and with their state right now the mets would likely eat a chunk of his salary in return for the savings and a few prospects.

    Comment by dutchbrowncoat — June 3, 2011 @ 4:18 pm

  5. The other thing for the M’s to consider when discussing dealing B├ędard is that he has the potential to be a type A free agent, based on his work this year and his pro-rated half of 2009.

    Comment by Ike — June 3, 2011 @ 4:21 pm

  6. Not only is Smoak doing that in the Majors, but he’s doing it in one of the worst hitters parks in the world.

    Comment by Ewan — June 3, 2011 @ 4:34 pm

  7. Meh. I’m a Yankees’ fan, and I’m ok with the Smoak over Montero decision. As prospects, they were essentially a wash. And it’s better to take the prospect from the division rival than the non-division rival.

    Comment by V — June 3, 2011 @ 4:35 pm

  8. John Danks has shown a desire to test free agency and can probably be had for the right package. Even with his miserable May he has been very consistent through his career and might bring back more than Jackson.

    Comment by MikeS — June 3, 2011 @ 4:36 pm

  9. The Braves are a contender definitely in the “supply” side of rotation arms, rather than the “demand” side. And they could use help in CF and/or the bench– or .

    Ideally there’s an aging and overpaid yet competent CF out there for a team that could use an aging and overpaid yet competent SP in Derek Lowe. There isn’t a match like that though, so maybe a young cost controlled CF in exchange for a young, cost controlled SP like Jurrjens.

    Comment by Temo — June 3, 2011 @ 4:41 pm

  10. I thought it was a strange decision, but you make it sound like there is something wrong with Smoak having a higher OPS in the pros than Montero has in AAA.

    Comment by Joey B — June 3, 2011 @ 4:50 pm

  11. Yeah…people have been throwing around Gardner’s name, based on nothing but desire. I can kinda see it–he’d be a minor upgrade over McLouth (although how’s his defense?), but McLouth hasn’t been quite the disaster area he was last season anyway, so the need’s probably not so pressing. Still, in terms of setting themselves up for some time to come, it could be a very nice match; presumably, the Yanks wouldn’t do it straight up, but Jurrjens plus a non-Teheran pitching prospect might get it done.

    Comment by Anon21 — June 3, 2011 @ 5:03 pm

  12. I think CMC was being sarcastic… right? I mean, by citing slash lines that where SMoak has a better OBP and SLG in the majors.

    Comment by Eminor3rd — June 3, 2011 @ 5:03 pm

  13. I was sort of thinking the BRAVES wouldn’t do it straight up.

    Comment by Eminor3rd — June 3, 2011 @ 5:04 pm

  14. Sox have to dump Jackson though, because there’s less than zero chance of retaining him, and he’ll only be type B. With absolutely no internal options on the farm, I think they have to either retain Danks one more year or resign Buerhle if they want a shot at contention in 2012. Keeping Danks and the ability to dump him for a bit less next year seems to be the better option, in my opinon. 2012 rotation then looks like:

    SP Danks
    SP Peavy
    SP Floyd
    SP Humber
    SP Sale

    Assuming no injuries or complete meltdowns, that’s actually quite serviceable for the AL central.

    Comment by Eminor3rd — June 3, 2011 @ 5:08 pm

  15. What about Dempster? Too much money?

    Comment by Jeremy — June 3, 2011 @ 5:08 pm

  16. I think that trade is fine straight up.

    Comment by Temo — June 3, 2011 @ 5:11 pm

  17. Crazy like a fox!

    Comment by VivaAyala — June 3, 2011 @ 5:20 pm

  18. Obviously Stags is being sarcastic…

    Comment by DBML — June 3, 2011 @ 5:30 pm

  19. NTC + really likes Chicago + bad April + significant cash + player option for next year = difficult to trade

    Comment by prospectslol — June 3, 2011 @ 5:42 pm

  20. I think that’s one of the most fair pitcher-for-position-player trade ideas I’ve heard, which means that it won’t happen. If anything, I don’t take the deal as the Yankees because I think SP have vastly overrated value over the course of a season compared to everyday position players.

    I think both Gardner and Jurrjens are either underrated or overrated by many folks. Let’s face it, neither is stand-out superb, but Jurrjens is a solid #2/3 type pitcher, while Gardner is a good OBP, bad power, excellent defensive OF.

    Comment by Big Wig — June 3, 2011 @ 5:49 pm

  21. Francisco Liriano? He says he’s feeling great now, and if he gets it going he’ll be a huge impact player.

    Comment by Joe — June 3, 2011 @ 5:55 pm

  22. No Wandy Rodriguez?

    Comment by NLeininger — June 3, 2011 @ 6:02 pm

  23. I don’t think Cleveland will be interested in Guthrie unless they speak to him beforehand. He refuses to sign any baseball cards of him in an Indians uniform because he believes they never gave him a shot. Maybe that grudge disappeared, but…

    Comment by Evan — June 3, 2011 @ 6:06 pm

  24. Nobody is going to take a chance on Santana coming back from injury.

    Comment by Undocorkscrew — June 3, 2011 @ 6:10 pm

  25. Thank god Derek Lowe wasn’t listed. It’s certainly possible, but if the Braves feel they can contend they’re likely not moving any non-rookie starting pitcher in their rotation. Doing so would force two rookies in the rotation down the stretch, and that’s something I highly doubt they’ll go for.

    If the Braves trade a notable starter or two, it’ll be Delgado, Minor, Beachy, or Vizcaino. I mean, unless they receive an overwhelming offer for Lowe or Jurrjens……..which won’t happen.

    Comment by Undocorkscrew — June 3, 2011 @ 6:14 pm

  26. LOL, yeah let’s assume no injuries to Peavy!

    Comment by vivalajeter — June 3, 2011 @ 6:26 pm

  27. I don’t think that will stop the Cubs from trying. Ditto Zambrano.

    Comment by Ace — June 3, 2011 @ 6:28 pm

  28. Does Vogelsong have any trade value for the Giants?

    Or does everyone basically assume he will turn back into a pumpkin on any other team?

    Comment by Ed — June 3, 2011 @ 6:35 pm

  29. I can’t see Detroit wanting to add any pitching when they have legit options in AAA

    Comment by Lloyd mclendon — June 3, 2011 @ 7:05 pm

  30. I’m not really sure that Edwin Jackson will be worth it for the reds – they have plenty of depth and hes just not a frontline starter – not to mention he seems to really prefer the AL

    Comment by Ton — June 3, 2011 @ 7:08 pm

  31. What about Kuroda? Pitching acceptably well for a team that’s going nowhere and having difficulty making payroll. Free agent after this year.

    Comment by Ryan — June 3, 2011 @ 7:27 pm


    Erik Bedard’s score is 37.405 and there are about 30 pitchers in front of him before he even attains Type B status.

    Comment by Jason — June 3, 2011 @ 7:48 pm

  33. The Braves have shown a lot of confidence so far in Minor and Beachy, and they’re pretty much at payroll. I have a hard time seeing them being able to move one of those guys without adding payroll. I think it’s either Jair for someone of equal price/value or Lowe for a less valuable player or an overpaid one where the salaries are a wash.

    Thr only way I change my mind is if Scafer’s injury today is remotely serious, in which case they may well add Payroll to replacehim and McLouth.

    Comment by Deadpool — June 3, 2011 @ 8:41 pm

  34. How we managed to arrive at a world that contains the internet but no widely-used sarcasm punctuation just amazes me. Al Gore really overlooked that one.

    Comment by joser — June 3, 2011 @ 8:41 pm

  35. I don’t think they’d trade Jair. They seem to really like him. He’s a learner with control. They like that sort of thing. Not only that but Jair is pretty valuable. If Jair slumps then mabe, but these first few months of Jair pretty much prevent him from being traded. Jair is cheap and young and proven and good. Teams don’t trade that. I know that Jair’s FIP supposedly shows that he’s pitching with luck (which he’s apparently been doing since he started), but the Braves seem to have more confidence in him than that.

    Comment by Antonio Bananas — June 3, 2011 @ 9:15 pm

  36. Don’t get me wrong, I don’t discount Jair like some do, but he’s probably a valuable enough commodity to return a significant peice for the Braves. I’m not gonna say Beachy or Minir are ready to take his place right now, but the drop off could be off-set and the right trade could bring a player who would be on the team when Teheran is up. A Jair trade could make a lot of since, but it’d have to be the right one.

    Comment by Deadpool — June 3, 2011 @ 10:04 pm

  37. I’m trying to figure out why Paul Maholm isn’t on this list. In 84 fewer starts, he’s got 2 more WAR than Marquis, he’s been pitching very well so far this year (already 1.2 WAR earned), he’s only 29 (actually, 28 for 3 more weeks), he’s got a below-market salary for this year and a team option for ’12 that’s, at worst, market value (probably a bit better). He doesn’t eat quite as many innings as Marquis, but he’s thrown 586 over the past 3 years, and he hasn’t missed a start since 2007.

    You’d also be hard pressed to prove that Guthrie’s significantly better than Maholm, but at least he’s got the AL East pedigree plus a solid 600 IP over the last 3 seasons.

    Comment by JRoth — June 3, 2011 @ 11:03 pm

  38. I’m just saying that everytime Jack Z deals with the Yankees he asks for their best prospects and then settles for less from another team. For example when he traded Washburn a few years ago, back then Austin Jackson was considered the top prospect in the Yankees farm system and wanted him for Jarrod Washburn who is now no longer in baseball. The Yankees said no, and then settles for a slice of cheesecake and a bucket of balls from the Tigers.

    Comment by rbibaseball57 — June 3, 2011 @ 11:48 pm

  39. I’ve heard the same thing, and it’s worth noting that the guy who traded him (Shapiro) is still the team President.

    Plus, he’s cheap and under team control for another year, in what looks like a weak trade crop of starting pitchers. The bidding won’t be insane, but he’ll net a decent crop of mid-level prospects. From comments Mark Shapiro and Antonetti have made recently, I don’t think they plan on trading away any significant pieces of their future. Maybe Cord Phelps, if they feel Jason Kipnis makes him redundant.

    The only way I’d see them trading for Guthrie is if they had a trade lined up for Carmona, where they felt they’d get a similar haul to what they gave up.

    Comment by Dan — June 3, 2011 @ 11:58 pm

  40. johan would have to prove himself healthy the rest of this year, then be traded in the offseason- at least, that’s the expectation I’ve heard expressed

    Comment by fly eli — June 4, 2011 @ 12:22 am

  41. I like Kuroda for many of these teams, like the Yanks, but I think he has a no-trade. Even still he should’ve been mentioned.

    Chad Billingsley is another guy who I’d want very, very badly if I were the Yankees, Red Sox, Tigers, etc. He’s got durability, good stuff, and would thrive with a real offense behind him.

    Comment by Joltin' Joe — June 4, 2011 @ 1:16 am

  42. Well I don’t think Dayton Moore and the Royals will be able to pry him away in exchange for Joakim Soria as the Yankees tried to do last year, seeing how that situation has developed in Kansas City…

    Comment by Joltin' Joe — June 4, 2011 @ 1:56 am

  43. Thats what I came here to post. Surprised he was not include.

    Comment by shoewizard — June 4, 2011 @ 5:27 am

  44. Mike Cameron? Does Derek Lowe miss Boston?

    Comment by Bookbook — June 4, 2011 @ 8:23 am

  45. RBI Baseball, have you considered that the reason that Jack Z asks for the Yankees’ best prospects and then takes other teams’ lesser prospects is because the Yankees just don’t have very good prospects?

    Comment by Brian — June 4, 2011 @ 10:46 am

  46. I think I would rather make a deal for JJ than Edwin Jackson at this point.

    Comment by bryan — June 4, 2011 @ 11:30 am

  47. If the Reds go after a pitcher, they need to get a proven ace and not another wildcard. Haren/Lee type guys are not available this deadline, so I wouldn’t go trading for a pitcher if I were the Reds. They need a LF or a SS and try to win with offense.

    Comment by bryan — June 4, 2011 @ 11:38 am

  48. Well, there’s an idea.

    Comment by Temo — June 4, 2011 @ 11:39 am

  49. Can’t see JJ for a guy like Gardner. I know Jurrjens doesn’t satisfy some of the peripheral-stat lovers, but he’s a solid 2 on his way to #1 status. Take away an injury riddled 2010, and he’s a 200 inning, 3 ERA pitcher (and that’s over about 500 innings).

    Gardner is a nice player, but I don’t think that’s a fair return for Jurrjens. And I don’t really see the Braves trading a 25-year-old top of the rotation starter, anyway.

    Comment by Mike — June 4, 2011 @ 12:28 pm

  50. Maybe the grudge has disappeared, but I can understand the sentiment. He wasn’t given any kind of real fair shot (he did struggle at times w/Cleveland) and they didn’t know what to do with him. I seem to recall some kind of contract/options situation with him. The Indians didn’t know what to do with him, so they waived him. Baltimore on the other hand knew exactly what to do with him.

    Guthrie has enough good will with the Orioles that if he really doesn’t want to be traded to Cleveland, I could see them honoring that request.

    Comment by jirish — June 4, 2011 @ 12:52 pm

  51. @RBI: When bargaining, you set your asking price high. You may not even get a Justin Smoak if you don’t ask for a Montero. You have to convince the market that your Cliff Lee is valuable and you won’t settle for crap.

    Comment by Erich — June 4, 2011 @ 1:44 pm

  52. Jason, thank you for these facts.

    Comment by Erich — June 4, 2011 @ 1:49 pm

  53. I agree. There is no way Detroit will look to trade for a bottom of the rotation starter with all the talent they have waiting in the wings. Oliver, Furbush, Wilk are legitimate options. Also they have Jacob Turner who will challenge for a spot next year. And Casey Crosby is rebounding this year.

    Trust us. Those of us who have the pulse of the team know better.

    Comment by Scott — June 4, 2011 @ 3:36 pm

  54. One of those prospects projected as a 1B, one (albeit dubiously) as a C.

    Unless you think positional adjustments are meaningless in MLB. In which case, carry on with your questionable comparison.

    Comment by cwendt — June 4, 2011 @ 7:18 pm

  55. Brett Myers?

    Comment by Billy — June 4, 2011 @ 7:35 pm

  56. I’m not raging on the Cliff Lee deal at all, I’m just saying that he wanted Austin Jackson for Jarrod Washburn which was unreasonable to ask for at the time. What would you rather have a half year rental for Jarrod Washburn or Curtis Granderson.

    Comment by rbibaseball57 — June 4, 2011 @ 10:31 pm


    This is why I dislike Jack Z, I’m not making this up. Instead he settles on Luke French and another prospect.

    Comment by rbibaseball57 — June 4, 2011 @ 10:46 pm

  58. Why would the Giants trade him?

    Comment by GiantHusker — June 5, 2011 @ 11:29 am

  59. Actually, the Yankees have great prospects. No sarcasm needed there. And Justin Smoak is three years older than Montero. Just about every single talent evaluation I’ve seen pegs Montero as a better hitter, regardless of how you choose to cherrypick how’s he’s hitting during certain parts of certain seasons.

    Comment by Frank — June 5, 2011 @ 3:05 pm

  60. The sources reported whom the Mariners wanted in exchange for Jarrod Washburn in 2009, but whom did the Yankees offer?

    Was the Yankee offer better than lefty Luke French, who went 11-3 with a 2.94 ERA last season as a 23-year-old in Triple A, and lefty Mauricio Robles, who averaged more than a strikeout per inning last season as a 21-year-old between Double A and Triple A? Baseball America has Robles ranked as Seattle’s sixth-best prospect while Jon Sickels has Robles at No.5 in the organization. French has lost his prospect status.

    Comment by harmony — June 5, 2011 @ 5:16 pm

  61. please get rid of the projected WAR, it makes the blog look unintelligent

    Comment by Babe Ruth — June 5, 2011 @ 7:25 pm

  62. You’d better do what the Babe says

    Comment by Lou Gehrig — June 5, 2011 @ 7:25 pm

  63. Hey Gehrig, grab a mitt and catch me!

    Comment by Disease — June 5, 2011 @ 7:51 pm

  64. I sense that both NY and Boston have made inquiries on Lowe, and LA would love to dump that money but it’s a cat-n-mouse game presently where neither interested team wants to eat that $20 mil, but LA thinks that if they wait a bit longer one of them will be forced to take him anyway.

    I don’t care if NY’s pitching, to date, is fine. It’s gonna suck sooner or later because it’s held together with tape and baby embryos. And Bos is one more injury (maybe Buchholz) away from sending LA Reddick and assuming Lowe’s entire contract.

    As far as Gardner for Jurrjens, well, that’s just nuts. Jurrjens is worth more than a defensive outfielder who can’t hit.

    Comment by Nat Haniel — June 5, 2011 @ 8:22 pm

  65. Peavy’s injury today puts a bit of a different spin on EJax, he’s no longer quite as expendable.

    Comment by Ryan — June 5, 2011 @ 10:30 pm

  66. Frank says: “And Justin Smoak is three years older than Montero.”

    I can’t argue that different hitters develop at different paces. Heck, just look at Eric Hosmer, who is only one month older than Jesus Montero.

    Comment by harmony — June 5, 2011 @ 10:43 pm

  67. Solid analysis by D-Cam, as usual.

    Gotta wonder, though, about “The Reds might not seem like they’re in need of a starter, but could cash in some of their excess talent in order to try and upgrade the front of their rotation.”

    I would submit that the Reds—playing .500 ball in a take-able division, already 5+ games out, and with a modest payroll, and with 3/5 of their rotation sporting ERA’s in the 5′s or 6′s, and with the most overtaxed bullpen in the majors—are not only in NEED of a BIG rotation upgrade, but well-positioned to pursue one.

    The farm system is strong, and A. Chapman (like Joba a few years back) remains one of the most overvalued commodities in the sport, due to that Autobahn velocity.

    Get a starter, Reds!

    Comment by Bob — June 6, 2011 @ 2:59 am

  68. The Orioles have been pretty clear that they aren’t interested in trading Guthrie unless the return is significant. I think they’re going to want a top-5 prospect, a mid-level guy, and a throw-in. Something like /White, Pomeranz, or Weglarz/Phelps, Scott Barnes, or Austin Adams/C-level bullpen guy.

    It’s probably more than he is “worth,” but he’s the best pitcher on the trade market this year (unless you want to roll the injury dice with Bedard) and the Orioles don’t HAVE to trade him, after all.

    Comment by Edward — June 6, 2011 @ 3:53 am

  69. hey, hey, hey! Don’t forget Paul Maholm! I’ve waited years until he’s trade bait! NOW IS THE TIME! GOOD BYE SUCKBAG PAUL MAHOLM!!!

    Comment by Ryan Waltman — June 6, 2011 @ 7:42 am

  70. Agreed, I think Smith will deal both Slowey and Liriano. Not dealing Slowey in the offseason was a mistake in foresight. Not dealing Liriano in the offseason was a mistake in hindsight, if you catch my meaning.

    Comment by mike wants wins — June 6, 2011 @ 10:14 am

  71. Surkamp, Zito coming back and being untradeable..

    Not that I think they should trade him but I am more curious about whether because of his performance this year compared with last year if he has any trade value at all.

    Comment by Ed — June 6, 2011 @ 11:09 am

  72. Why in the world would the Braves deal JJ in the midst of a playoff chase? If they’re dealing, they will be loading, not unloading.

    Comment by Jason B — June 9, 2011 @ 3:43 pm

  73. Your facts have no place on these internets, other Jason. Its all scurrilous innuendo and impugning the cocksmanship of total strangers with lengthy, poorly worded diatribes. C’mon now.

    Comment by Jason B — June 9, 2011 @ 3:47 pm

  74. Jake’s injury has zero impact on what they should/will do with EJax – they weren’t contending with Peavy, they’re sure not contending without him. I would say if anything it makes him *more* expendable, since he’s gone after this year anyway may as well try to get something in return.

    Comment by Jason B — June 9, 2011 @ 3:54 pm

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    Comment by bedok residences — November 14, 2011 @ 12:28 pm

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