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  1. Also up are his contact rates (at least out of zone); methinks that rather than generating poor contact for outs these are, as you point out above, falling in. That doesn’t explain poor location, however.

    Comment by Big Oil — June 16, 2011 @ 1:21 pm

  2. Ricky Nolasco, Jason Hammel, and Billingsley… you’re right, they are all remarkably similar pitchers. Above average straight fastball, big curve. Righty. Maybe that type of pitcher gets hit around more than other types if their location is lacking.

    Comment by Jay — June 16, 2011 @ 1:23 pm

  3. Seems like there are enough pitchers who consistently outperform their xFIP and enough other pitchers who consistently underperform it that by the time you get a big enough sample size for it to mean anything, we might as well just go with ERA and be done with it.

    Comment by DrBGiantsfan — June 16, 2011 @ 1:42 pm

  4. Hair fair. haha

    Comment by Ryan — June 16, 2011 @ 1:44 pm

  5. I used FIP, and three seasons, and if you do that, it’s enough of a sample that these guys are the ‘extreme’ outliers. About 50% of the pitchers’ ERAs ended up within .27 of their FIP, and Billingsley’s difference (.54) was twice that. Nolasco is the crazy one – 1.11 difference since 2009.

    Comment by Eno Sarris — June 16, 2011 @ 1:45 pm

  6. Well, I do think I have some fair-ish hair, so that was an easy one haha.

    Comment by Eno Sarris — June 16, 2011 @ 1:46 pm

  7. Or maybe indeed it does.

    Comment by Big Oil — June 16, 2011 @ 1:51 pm

  8. This doesn’t actually tell us that Billingsley’s outlier status is meaningful. Assuming a normal distribution around FIP, if 50% of pitchers’ ERAs fall within 0.27 of their FIP, then the implied standard deviation is 0.40. This would further imply that Billingsley’s ERA-FIP is only about 1.3 standard deviations from expected, hardly a wild statistical outlier. And if we are not to assume that ERA-FIP is normally distributed then we probably shouldn’t be comparing FIP to ERA at all.

    Frankly I find it a much more interesting result that only 5 pitchers had ERA/FIP differentials in excess of 0.54. How many qualified pitchers did you end up with in this analysis?

    Comment by mcbrown — June 16, 2011 @ 2:08 pm

  9. FIP, xFIP, whatever. Whether it’s the 50% where there is no significant difference or the rest that are consistent under or over performers, or too small a sample size to make a determination, you might as well just go with ERA.

    Comment by DrBGiantsfan — June 16, 2011 @ 2:22 pm

  10. just because YOU don’t agree with it don’t mean it doesn’t work/isn’t right. ERA isn’t telling you anything other then the results. FIP and xFIP at least have some predictive ablity. Matt Cain and other giants pitchers outperform their xFIPs and you think they are special outliers, we get it already.

    Comment by sean — June 16, 2011 @ 2:36 pm

  11. scott baker or billingsly??????????? anyone wanna take a stab?

    Comment by state school grad — June 16, 2011 @ 3:17 pm

  12. Oddly enough, Billingsley’s ERA and FIP in his career are exactly the same. Obviously it’s not really indicative of much (what with years ahead of him) and he’s matured over the years, but I just found that pretty damn interesting.

    Comment by TheMooseOfDeath — June 16, 2011 @ 4:04 pm

  13. I was hoping for a comment on martingales in baseball.

    Comment by Barkey Walker — June 16, 2011 @ 9:22 pm

  14. could he possibly be tipping his pitches?

    Comment by jts5 — June 16, 2011 @ 11:12 pm

  15. This is what I thought. His stuff is good enough that even if he’s missing location (which he isn’t doing any more than he normally does it seems) he shouldn’t be getting knocked around like he has been in his last 4 or 5 starts.

    Comment by Bip — June 17, 2011 @ 6:41 am

  16. This story feels awfully familiar to this Brandon Morrow fan.

    Comment by Od — June 17, 2011 @ 7:45 am

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