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  1. If I were a betting man – which, as my name suggests, I am – I’d put the over/under on comments regarding Dunn’s performance in relation to a specific fantasy team at 10.

    I’d also put the over/under on people caring about those fantasy teams at 1. That one being the fake owner of the fake team.

    Comment by Betting Man — June 27, 2011 @ 9:08 am

  2. I just wanted to see the dude in a HR derby.

    Comment by Omar — June 27, 2011 @ 9:16 am

  3. On a semi-unrelated note, just how much is enough when it comes to UZR? I thought about 3 seasons were enough, and we’re approaching that with Gardner. In 1600 LF innings he is sporting a rather nice UZR/150 of 42.7; add in another 1100 innings in center and his UZR/150 is still a shiny 32.8. Maybe people jumped on his elite defense band wagon before the sample size was large enough to be statistically meaningful, but it looks like they were right to me…

    Comment by Bill — June 27, 2011 @ 9:20 am

  4. He is hitting .126 and if he strikes out in his next home AB, he will have struck out in half his ABs. It’s a small sample, but maybe he should have taken BP at the Cell before signing a contract. It appears that Dunn had never hit there before this season? Is that right?

    Comment by J.E. — June 27, 2011 @ 10:08 am

  5. Here’s how bad things are for Dunn right now. I was at the game yesterday and people actually are cheering him now for fouling pitches off. I think the biggest problem right now is Dunn’s mental state. If you listen to him in interviews, he sounds mentally beaten.

    Comment by Sox2727 — June 27, 2011 @ 10:10 am

  6. He said the day he signed that it was the first time he had ever seen the field. I think he’s pressing mentally (and understandably).

    Comment by Sox2727 — June 27, 2011 @ 10:12 am

  7. Nitpicky note: I don’t know that you could call Garza a very good pitcher having his talent questioned because of fluky BABIP, because before this year he never pitched this well. He’s having his improvement masked by high BABIP.

    Comment by Sam — June 27, 2011 @ 10:13 am

  8. Man, Dunn really torpedoed my fantasy team. I spent a 4th round pick on him, passing up on Justin Upton and Brian McCann because I valued his consistency so much. Do you think I should sell low on him now or ride it out?

    Comment by Michael Scotch — June 27, 2011 @ 10:36 am

  9. I thought Garza was just an above average pitcher with a fluky strikeout rate that seemed to regress some.

    Comment by Pat — June 27, 2011 @ 11:02 am

  10. Seems like ricciardi was right all along, this dude just doesn’t like baseball. now he’s got his retirement contract, he’s punched out.

    dumped him from my fagtasy squad a month ago…best move i’ve made all year.

    Comment by everdiso — June 27, 2011 @ 11:42 am

  11. Ricciardi is an idiot.

    Dunn was a product of the National League, plain and simple. I’m so amused by NL fans that still get defensive about this. The AL turns Adam Dunn into Adam Lind, but there’s no discrepancy between the leagues.

    Comment by Bill — June 27, 2011 @ 12:18 pm

  12. Lind is highly productive and in the AL, are you suggesting that if he moves to the NL he’ll turn into Pujols 2.0? You should probably have found a worse Adam to make the comparison to, like maybe Adam Kennedy or Adam Vinatieri.

    Comment by SC2GG — June 27, 2011 @ 12:21 pm

  13. MLB has a rule that states that Ricciardi isn’t ever right about anything.

    Comment by SC2GG — June 27, 2011 @ 12:22 pm

  14. Fire the GM for taking a mediocre DH over an All-Star catcher.

    Comment by James — June 27, 2011 @ 12:33 pm

  15. DHing and sitting around thinking about it probably compounds the problem.

    Comment by James — June 27, 2011 @ 12:38 pm

  16. He could have used Lind as a comparator but he would’ve had to reference is horrific 2010 line versus LHP to make it remotely relevant

    Comment by Beaster — June 27, 2011 @ 1:02 pm

  17. I’m definitely wondering if Dunn doesn’t have the Pat Burrell “can’t DH” problem. Though his defense is a definite minus, I think the White Sox might do well to consider committing to a few weeks of Dunn at 1B and letting Konerko DH. Paulie doesn’t seem to have much difficult transitioning back-and-forth and it’d be worth it in the long run if they can get Dunn’s bat going.

    Comment by steex — June 27, 2011 @ 1:05 pm

  18. I’ll take the under, as your post has biased the sample. If you hadn’t posted, I’d say you would probably be really close.

    Comment by David K — June 27, 2011 @ 1:09 pm

  19. I don’t own him anywhere this year, mostly because his ADP had the league and park change built into it. So even though I don’t have a horse in the race, I’m still pretty puzzled as to how this guy fell off the map so quickly. His peripherals don’t look too far off his career norms.

    Comment by kid — June 27, 2011 @ 1:24 pm

  20. You’re absolutely right. Adam Dunn’s struggles are simply and wholly a result of the discrepancy in pitching between the AL and NL.

    Let’s face it. We’ve never seen a player go from the AL to the NL and immediately struggle. We’ve never seen a perennial AL powerhouse, like say, Boston, recently have an an leftfielder that posted lines of .274/.380/.534 while in a Red Sox uniform, but then inexplicably forgot how to hit after signing a contract to play in the inferior National League. And we’ve never seen the anti-Adam Dunn: a career National Leaguer who struggled but found almost overnight success after being traded to the AL.

    In the recesses of my mind I recall the “idiot” J.P. Ricciardi trading a bag of baseballs to that National League juggernaut, the Pittsburgh Pirates, in exchange for another outfielder who was essentially a replacement level player. He couldn’t stay in the starting lineup of that extremely deep NL team in spite of numerous opportunities. And then Riccardi brought him to the AL (albeit its worst division, the AL East – which I call the fourth National League division because its pitching is so weak), and this replacement level outfielder almost immediately hit like the reincarnation of Hank Greenberg.

    But then I realize that Ricciardi never could have made such a trade, and no player could ever go from struggling in the NL to stardom in the AL, so I must be imagining it all.

    Comment by GMH — June 27, 2011 @ 1:26 pm

  21. HR Derby is not a good idea for the Donk. A swing and miss is considered an out.

    Comment by GlennBraggsSwingAndMissBrokenBat — June 27, 2011 @ 1:38 pm

  22. Not joking, I think there’s something wrong with his eyesight. He’s not just whiffing breaking balls, he’s whiffing fastballs down the middle.

    Comment by Eminor3rd — June 27, 2011 @ 1:58 pm

  23. Hm. His home/road splits _are_ rather drastic this year…

    Comment by Phils Goodman — June 27, 2011 @ 2:41 pm

  24. we spent a 3rd round pick on him! (12 team league)

    was able to sell low on him for mcgehee and rios (replacing francouer and callaspo). picked up cuddyer for 1B and in 2 weeks have gotten more than 2 months of Dunn.

    every week thta goes by reduces the number of owners who will see big power potential enough to pay for it. might already be too late.

    Comment by jimbo — June 27, 2011 @ 2:45 pm

  25. Teehee.

    Comment by Jason B — June 27, 2011 @ 2:52 pm

  26. Player A: 314/360/569, 396 wOBA, 152 wRC+, 1.9 WAR
    Player B: 173/308/316, 289 wOBA, 75 wRC+, -1.0 WAR


    Comment by Jason B — June 27, 2011 @ 2:58 pm

  27. Not to quibble, but with a .253/.342/.490 line his last two seasons, I don’t think Jim Edmonds really belongs in the Andruw Jones/Adam Dunn career collapse list. His declines actually seem pretty normal for a guy in his late 30’s, who happened to pick it up again his last year seasons:

    2004 @ age 34: 1.061 OPS
    2005 @ age 35: .918 OPS
    2006 @ age 36: .822 OPS
    2007 @ age 37: .728 OPS
    2008 @ age 38: .822 OPS
    2010 @ age 40: .846 OPS

    Comment by Atom — June 27, 2011 @ 3:46 pm

  28. Riccardi wasn’t right. Lots of players struggle with DH’ing. Look at Posada, Adam Lind etc.

    Thinking too much about the next AB between innings is horriblbe for a hitter.

    Comment by ddriver80 — June 27, 2011 @ 4:04 pm

  29. Its Richie Sexson all over again.

    Comment by SAmmy — June 27, 2011 @ 4:10 pm

  30. The only math involved in my explanation of his Dunn’s decline is that a friend of mine, once a ballpark assistant, was required to bring 20 McDonald’s cheeseburgers to the clubhouse when Dunn was in town.

    All those cheeseburgers will slow down your bat speed.

    Thats why the Babe stuck to Hot Dogs.

    Comment by SAmmy — June 27, 2011 @ 4:13 pm

  31. If only P. Angelos, Esq., liked the cut of said replacement level outfielder’s jib.

    Comment by excatcher — June 27, 2011 @ 5:22 pm

  32. Sexson could at least chalk some of his issues up to recurring back issues. I’m not aware of any physical problems Dunn has. Although they *do* both have those “old player” skills that tend to dive off a cliff at a certain point, as has been stated earlier.

    Comment by Jason B — June 27, 2011 @ 6:36 pm

  33. He should switch to 10 double cheeseburgers and cut down on the carbs.

    Comment by shthar — June 27, 2011 @ 6:56 pm

  34. At least cust is still getting on base.

    That’s one slow leadoff type tho.

    Comment by shthar — June 27, 2011 @ 6:56 pm

  35. IIRC, his first two weeks were ok, not fantastic, but “slow start” not “indescribable dropoff”.

    Then he had the appendix out.

    For “i cried becuase I had no shoes” moment for anyone else with Dunn in their fantasy team; I also have Brian Roberts. And Oswalt.

    Comment by paul_brklyn — June 27, 2011 @ 7:25 pm

  36. BS on the DH thing. He’s played a few games int eh field and been just as awful.

    Comment by MikeS — June 27, 2011 @ 7:26 pm

  37. BS on that too. He’s been equally awful in interleague play when he gets to face NL pitchers.

    Comment by MikeS — June 27, 2011 @ 7:28 pm

  38. They’ve tried playing him there more over the last month, after he did pretty much nothing but DH for the first month and a half. He’s still been terrible, and he’s actually hit WORSE in the games where he has played in the field (small sample size obviously).

    Comment by Yinka Double Dare — June 27, 2011 @ 7:46 pm

  39. A career .347 wOBA is highly productive for a player who doesn’t add anything defensively?

    If you really want to know, what I was doing is giving Dunn some credit, I don’t think he’s really THIS bad going forward.

    Comment by Bill — June 27, 2011 @ 9:00 pm

  40. Good lord did you waste your time typing this. Both you and I and all the losers that voted this post up all know that the AL is superior. You can make hack sarcastic jokes all you want, I know you know it’s true.

    Like, look beyond the chest-thumping aspect of it, if you have any ability to be objective. I mean, you’re being so fraudulent here that you scared-quoted the idea that Ricciardi was a bad GM, just because you disagree with an entirely separate point I made.

    Weak stuff.

    Comment by Bill — June 27, 2011 @ 9:07 pm

  41. dunn is hitting .019 against left handed hitters. batting average isnt the best statistic, but still

    Comment by cj — June 27, 2011 @ 9:29 pm

  42. Sox2727 is Joe Cowley. Exposed!

    Comment by Sophist — June 27, 2011 @ 9:33 pm

  43. I’m entertained at the idea that Dunn is thinking to much. *grin*

    I do think his confidence is as low as it goes, he’s being challenged in the zone by mediocre lefties … and losing.

    ESPN analyst says he’s struggling because he’s trying to pull everything. Now maybe I don’t know Dunn at all, but Ive never known him to go the other way. Ryan Howard, yes. Adam Dunn, not so much.

    I wouldn’t want to put “Batting Coach, Chicago White Sox, 2011-current” on my resume.

    Comment by CircleChange11 — June 27, 2011 @ 10:00 pm

  44. I have dunn and uggla and I’m still in 1st place.

    Comment by adohaj — June 27, 2011 @ 11:57 pm

  45. Babe washed it down with an extract of sheeps testicles for a teststerone boost. No synthetic teststerone in his day.

    I have heard that one of the side effects with steroid withdrawal is a teststerone deficit due to the body no longer manufactures enough of it’s own teststerone. Makes you really weak, which can hurt your bat speed.

    Not claiming Adam Dunn used, since I have no idea, but I look at some of the FA in recent years who have been busts immediately after signing a big pay day (Dunn, Bay, Crawford(so far), Figgins, etc) and I have to wonder WTF is going on.

    Comment by pft — June 28, 2011 @ 4:18 am

  46. I’m calling it – monster 2nd half coming from Adam Dunn. Guaranteed or your money back.

    In all seriousness, I think most of the lower-level data points to some combination of bad luck and pressing:

    * His astronomical strikeout rate is looking flukey to me. His swinging strike rate this year is 12.6% – high, but less than last year’s 13.8% and not THAT much higher than his career average of 11.6%.

    * His pitch selection has been poor but not lethal. He’s making more contact on pitches out of the zone (60% vs. 44.5% career), but swinging at too many of them (27% vs. 19% career, though I should note it was 29% last year). The higher contact rate on these pitches is probably bad news for a “three outcome” player like Dunn, because it is likely weak contact, but the positive feedback of putting the bat on the ball may encourage him to keep swinging. This is consistent with the idea that he is pressing, and a run of good luck may be all he needs to stop doing it.

    * He HAS had a decent drop in his zone contact rate: 76% this year, down from ~80% career. Then again, it was also ~76% in 2005, his best season by wOBA. So that probably doesn’t explain it.

    The biggest red flag I see is from hit tracker – his average home run distance this year is about 397 feet, and it hasn’t been less than 410 feet in any season in their database. So even when he has hit home runs, he hasn’t been blasting them – his power (by this metric) has gone from “prodigious” to “league average”. But it is a tiny sample size of 7 home runs, and the distance varies from a 366 foot wall scraper to a 442 foot blast. For comparison, last year only 5 of his homers exceeded 442 feet. So despite the poor average distance, there is at least some evidence that he still has the capacity to crush it.

    Comment by mcbrown — June 28, 2011 @ 10:04 am

  47. According to hit tracker, last year 13 of Dunn’s homers went to the opposite field (12 clearly, 1 arguably to center). That’s about 1/3 of his total – a pretty fair amount.

    Comment by mcbrown — June 28, 2011 @ 10:06 am

  48. The Babe used tiger blood. Adam Dunn was promised tiger blood by his personal trainer, but could only get ocelot blood.

    Comment by SC2GG — June 28, 2011 @ 10:45 am

  49. Blech, I take it back. That last red flag turns out to be a big one. Hit tracker, baseballanalytics, and an eyeballing of Dunn’s spray chart vs. prior years all point to an overall decrease in fly ball distance of 10-15 feet. That’ll do it…

    Comment by mcbrown — June 28, 2011 @ 3:28 pm

  50. 5 so far.

    Comment by Ben F — June 28, 2011 @ 6:32 pm

  51. The Cell is a launchpad, one of the top 3 HR parks in the AL, maybe even the MLB

    Comment by Steve from Rockford — August 5, 2011 @ 6:14 pm

  52. Problem is Konerko is much better at 1st, the Sox cannot do that after almost knocking themselves totally out of contention

    Comment by Steve from Rockford — August 5, 2011 @ 6:14 pm

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