FanGraphs Baseball

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  1. Rabble, rabble, rabble…

    Comment by Romodonkulous — June 27, 2011 @ 4:29 pm

  2. Will Colorado move up to #1 after they move 15 games back of a team with an even run differential at the end of August?

    Laughable.

    Comment by tyler — June 27, 2011 @ 4:57 pm

  3. Roy Halladay, Cole Hamels and Cliff Lee ranking one, two and three in xFIP

    ::Brain explodes::

    Comment by Telo — June 27, 2011 @ 5:09 pm

  4. and the only one not singed to a long term deal is the youngest

    Comment by Jon — June 27, 2011 @ 6:05 pm

  5. “As if the Yankees didn’t already have enough elite ballplayers, now it’s clear that Brett Gardner is one of them as well.” That’s one way to look at it I guess; another would be that just maybe defense is factored a little too heavily into WAR. How many balls would have to be hit to left field for Gardner’s great defense to make him as valuable as guys like Adrian Gonzalez and Evan Longoria?

    Comment by Kyle — June 27, 2011 @ 7:21 pm

  6. I’m still mystified that the Giants let Matt Downs go for no reason. Well, there was a reason, but keeping Alex Hinshaw on the 40-man shouldn’t be your reason. I’m not sure why the Astros have been so reluctant to give him consistent playing time.

    Comment by Scott — June 27, 2011 @ 7:34 pm

  7. The Red Sox were just mocked (and beaten) by your 28th team, to the point where Pedroia was being skull-stalked by their pitching staff for his screaming at their fans, of which does not at all address their losing 2 quality starters, yet they’re still number one?

    So what exactly will it take for your preseason baby to fall in your rankings, a nuclear attack targeting Cambridge?

    Holy you-have-got-to-be-kidding-me! The only thing surprising about this list is that Seattle hasn’t fought its way up from their #6 preseason ranking to become number one yet.

    Comment by Sultan of Schwinngg — June 27, 2011 @ 9:33 pm

  8. I keep bringing this up and I don’t know when he will finally qualify, but Greinke is killing all 3 of them by over a half run

    Comment by Dustin — June 27, 2011 @ 10:35 pm

  9. Yea, that was a pivotal 3-game mid summer series that they just lost, they may not be able to recover.

    Comment by Jross — June 27, 2011 @ 10:36 pm

  10. Wait a second…a baseball team lost 2 WHOLE MOTHER FREAKING GAMES out of a three game series?! Time to sell at the deadline, the Sox just can’t win a championship with this core.

    Comment by Xenophanes — June 27, 2011 @ 11:56 pm

  11. Gardner’s +60 career UZR represents about 1 run saved vs. an average LF for every 6 games or so.

    Is it crazy to think that a great defensive LF would reel in one or two extra batted balls a week above your typical lumbering slugger?

    60 runs worth of defensive value for an OF would probably translate to something like 80-100 hits, depending on how many of them are for extra bases. That’s a lot of hits. If, instead of awarding him the UZR runs, you just tacked 100 hits onto Gardner’s career total, he’d have a lifetime .363 AVG.

    Comment by psiogen — June 28, 2011 @ 1:11 am

  12. I’m sure Houston’s argument goes something like, “the Giants must have let him go for a reason.”

    Comment by Bhaakon — June 28, 2011 @ 2:24 am

  13. Is this the formula that tipped us off in advance to last year’s thrilling Rockies-Rays World Series?

    Comment by Candlestick Parker — June 28, 2011 @ 6:53 am

  14. The Braves have the 2nd best run differential in the NL and are tied for the 2nd best record, yet they are in 10th place behind Milwaukee, St. Louis, and Colorado.

    Comment by JT Grace — June 28, 2011 @ 8:38 am

  15. Their preseason fan ranking was really low (not sure why personally).

    Comment by balagast — June 28, 2011 @ 10:15 am

  16. Yes yes, we know you still feel like your world champion Giants were/are disrespected. Massive inferiority complex, we get it. Does it matter? Flags fly forever n’ all…

    Comment by Jason B — June 28, 2011 @ 10:29 am

  17. There’s no question that those 2 games are the pivotal games of the season. In fact, they’re the only 2 being played.

    Some of you just aren’t happy if you can’t whine about the fangraphs power rankings once a week. Congratulations! See you next week!

    Comment by chuckb — June 28, 2011 @ 12:24 pm

  18. These power rankings would almost be better if you could/would just close comments as soon as the post is submitted. 95% are from people who show up once a week to whine about how their team is disrespected by your power rankings or how biased your rankings are, yada, yada, yada.

    Maybe there could be 2 sets of comments — 1 for people who just want to whine about where their team is (or their least favorite team) and 1 for those who have legitimate comments to make.

    Comment by chuckb — June 28, 2011 @ 12:27 pm

  19. Here’s an attempt at a constructive criticism: Even if Cleveland isn’t the second-best team in the division, and Minnesota isn’t the first, there’s something wrong with their rankings. At this point in the season, should the system really rank the team with the worst WAR% ahead of one whose WAR% is over .500?

    I’d like to hear more discussion of the methodology, how it should be arrived at, and how much preseason performance should be weighted and whether more recent performance should be weighted more as well; but I think the current formula pretty clearly overweights the preseason poll.

    (For the record, I don’t have a dog in this fight; I’m a Pirates fan, and I’m not going to complain about a formula that ranks them 28th instead of 25th.)

    Comment by matt w — June 28, 2011 @ 1:38 pm

  20. Since the beginning of May:

    Minnesota 23-28
    Cleveland 23-28

    They’re ranked right next to each other in the bottom-third of the power rankings. That looks reasonable if you’re trying to compare to what the “real world” looks like.

    Isn’t that what this power ranking formula is supposed to do? Temper hot/cold stretches?

    Comment by Michigan Matt — June 28, 2011 @ 3:14 pm

  21. Why assume that May and June represent their true talent rather than March and April? In both cases it makes sense to assume it’s somewhere between the two. Perhaps May-June is the cold stretch that needs to be tempered for the Indians.

    As for the power ranking formula, I don’t know what it’s trying to do. How did the authors decide that the way to temper hot/cold stretches was to take a preseason poll and fade it out one game per one game as the season went on? As far as I can tell, it was just a guess at the formula. Which would be fine, if they (Dave more than Paul) weren’t dogmatically defending it as if it were something more than an experiment that could stand some tweaking.

    Even Swydan’s initial writeup suggests that preseason expectations aren’t as important as current performance, but they currently count for more than half of the rankings. When you look at the rankings, do you really think Colorado should be ranked seven spots ahead of Arizona?

    Comment by matt w — June 28, 2011 @ 4:05 pm

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