FanGraphs Baseball

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  1. umm, I’ve got my money on Tommy Hanson.

    Comment by Greg — June 11, 2009 @ 1:07 pm

  2. Seconded

    Comment by Gee — June 11, 2009 @ 1:26 pm

  3. Umm, rasmus is having a much better season than Evlis Andrus. What in the world are you talking about. More HRs, RBIs, Better VORP, OBP, Slugging. WTF? You sure you looked at the stats before you said that?

    Comment by Firestarter — June 11, 2009 @ 1:36 pm

  4. Colby Rasmus 2.0 WAR<Elvis Andrus1.4 WAR? Does not compute

    Comment by Joe Twinsfan — June 11, 2009 @ 1:42 pm

  5. No love for Dexter Fowler? With similar slash numbers, Fowler is not too far off the pace offensively, though his defense is inferior to Rasmus’s.

    Comment by Chris R — June 11, 2009 @ 1:45 pm

  6. too early. lots of guys can get called up still and run away with it.

    Comment by Jamie — June 11, 2009 @ 2:20 pm

  7. I think Randy Wells qualifies as a rookie; his peripherals are great, his FIP is under 3.00, and his BABIP isn’t extremely skewed. He obviously was a early-year callup but given the lack of other quality names, I don’t see how he couldn’t get some nod.

    Comment by Manny — June 11, 2009 @ 2:23 pm

  8. Seconded

    Comment by Glen L — June 11, 2009 @ 2:24 pm

  9. If Randy Wells keeps up his pace, or even if he only regresses a little bit, he should factor into the decision as well.

    Comment by Isaac — June 11, 2009 @ 2:25 pm

  10. Any thoughts on Ryan Hanigan? At 28, he’s a little too old to be thought of as a prospect, but he’s been putting up fairly solid numbers (.319/.398/.383) while catching full-time for the Reds. While he’s got no power, he does control the zone well (11.3% BB, 10.1% K in 218 career PAs).

    Of course, he might lose playing time whenever Joey Votto returns. Ramon Hernandez has been playing first base and batting cleanup(?!) in Votto’s absence.

    Comment by Ben — June 11, 2009 @ 2:41 pm

  11. No love for Randy Wells? He has been the best pitcher on a lauded Cubs staff.

    Comment by Hector F — June 11, 2009 @ 3:30 pm

  12. How about Ronald Bellisario? I believe he counts as a rookie and is having a better season than any of these guys.

    Comment by Alireza — June 11, 2009 @ 4:19 pm

  13. here’s top ten rookie pitchers by VORP from BP:
    1. Ramon Troncoso LAN NL 17.1
    2. Randy Wells CHN NL 15.1
    3. Josh Outman OAK AL 14.1
    4. Sean White SEA AL 13.9
    5. Andrew Bailey OAK AL 13.2
    6. Rick Porcello DET AL 12.9
    7. J.A. Happ PHI NL 12.8
    8. Brad Bergesen BAL AL 11.8
    9. Mark Difelice MIL NL 11.4
    10. Scott Richmond TOR AL 10.6

    And here’s the hitters:
    1. Seth Smith COL NL 9.4
    2. Colby Rasmus SLN NL 8.4
    3. Elvis Andrus TEX AL 8.3
    4. Ryan Roberts ARI NL 7.2
    5. Ryan Hanigan CIN NL 6.1
    6. Dexter Fowler COL NL 6.0
    7. Nolan Reimold BAL AL 5.8
    8. Jose Morales MIN AL 5.1
    9. Brett Gardner NYA AL 5.0
    10. Tyler Greene SLN NL 4.8

    From this, you’d have Tronosco or Wells in the NL, Outman or White in the AL.

    Comment by ang — June 11, 2009 @ 5:26 pm

  14. Seth Smith is indeed putting up a ridiculous line, .283/.421/.456 However, he isn’t getting the starts he deserves due to the rockies odd 5 outfielder setup. He’s being rotated in with Gonzales/Fowler/Spilborghs in LF/CF, and being used mostly as a pitch hitter because he “adjusts well to coming off the bench.”

    thats right, the rockies are using a 400 obp guy off the bench.

    Comment by Blue — June 11, 2009 @ 5:34 pm

  15. Vorp doesn’t include defense, which overrates Seth Smith and underrates Rasmus.

    Comment by vivaelpujols — June 11, 2009 @ 8:52 pm

  16. “despite having just an OK season”

    Rasmus has been worth 2.1 WAR in less than a third of a full seasons worth of at bats. Right now he is playing like one of the best players in the league.

    Comment by vivaelpujols — June 11, 2009 @ 8:54 pm

  17. The guy who wrote this article, definitely has a vendetta against Rasmus, or it at least seems like it.

    Comment by Douglas — June 11, 2009 @ 9:04 pm

  18. Yes, it is Rasmus’s to lose. The entire NL rookies class itself is relatively weak and light on hype, so Rasmus could run away with this since he’s got such a head start and is playing more – there is no way someone like Schafer, Gamel and his glove and decent pitcher for a bad Washington team is going to contend. Tommy Hanson has the best chance to catch-up but will have his plate facing the Mets, Phils and Marlins regularly and may be shut down towards the end to preserve his arm.

    Anyways, if Todd Hollandsworth won the ROY with a line of .291/.348/.437, then Rasmus should be okay. -.O

    Comment by Brent — June 11, 2009 @ 10:09 pm

  19. Ok, add in Smith’s +3.4 UZR. However, is he still a rookie?

    Comment by puck — June 11, 2009 @ 10:35 pm

  20. I think Colby will run away with it. That’s not to disrespect any of the other players but I think he will be a star before the year is over. He is already a 2.1 WAR player. In addition he has been a slow starter every time he’s moved up a level, so the fact that he’s already been this valuable is a very good sign.

    Of coarse I’m a Card’s fan and don’t claim to be objective. I just don’t see many holes in his game, he’s got such incredible bat speed.

    Comment by TheBirds — June 11, 2009 @ 10:42 pm

  21. Do you think Smith is a true talent .400 OBP guy?

    His only real option is LF due to his throwing arm (which seems odd since he was a backup QB at Ole Miss). He’s losing much more time there now that Carlos Gonzalez has been called up.

    I think they’ll find time for him as the season goes on (I assume they’ll make a trade by the deadline). But for now, they’re riding Hawpe’s career year and playing their two young OF prospects in the other two spots. (Smith is 26, Fowler and Gonzalez are 23.)

    Comment by puck — June 11, 2009 @ 10:43 pm

  22. Ah, now I see why you posted that re. Rasmus. Ha ha ha.

    Comment by puck — June 11, 2009 @ 10:46 pm

  23. How is Fowler defensiveley inferior to Rasmus?

    Comment by Travis — June 11, 2009 @ 11:12 pm

  24. Lower contact rate than Halladay? So what? Doc’s GAME is contact, it’s not like he is unhittable. He is just impossible to square up…he has even said it himself, most strikeouts are by accident essentially.

    Comment by exxrox — June 11, 2009 @ 11:12 pm

  25. What about Andrew McCutchen?

    Comment by Justin — June 11, 2009 @ 11:54 pm

  26. How could you leave off Shairon Martis. His 5-1 W-L record is the best among rookies.

    Comment by pm — June 12, 2009 @ 11:08 am

  27. He’s walked more guys than he’s struck out and has completely lucked his way into a couple of wins.

    I can never tell when people are joking anymore.

    Comment by Teej — June 12, 2009 @ 12:14 pm

  28. Seth Smith isn’t a rookie.

    Comment by Mark — June 12, 2009 @ 12:34 pm

  29. i love rasmus, but a lot of his value is in his position adjustment and in his defense, something which is bound to be underestimated (if not ignored) at ROY decision-making time.

    i think you’d get different answers depending on whether you’re asking A) who is most valuable among rookies? or B) who is actually going to win the ROY?

    Comment by tom s. — June 12, 2009 @ 2:11 pm

  30. after 460 innings in center, fowler rates as a -10.5 UZR/150 CF. while the sample size is small, it certainly points to fowler having bad range in CF. He may not be a -10 UZR/150 CF, but the likelihood that he is even a +5 UZR/150 CF seems low.

    Comment by tom s. — June 12, 2009 @ 2:52 pm

  31. who cares about that if he is getting guys out. He is also a winner as evidenced by his 5-1 W-L. Who cares about Rasmus 2.1 WAR when Martis +4 W-L is better. He is providing about 2 more wins than Rasmus.

    Comment by pm — June 12, 2009 @ 5:53 pm

  32. pablo sandoval qualifies as a rookie, correct?

    Comment by brendan — June 12, 2009 @ 6:36 pm

  33. PM, I really hope you’re joking about Martis. Either that or you can’t look past his W-L record. Wins and Losses are a fairly ambiguous stat, so to speak, and aren’t a great read on how a pitcher’s pitching. You can pitch really well or really badly and get a win either way.

    Let’s take a look at Martis: 5-1, 5.04 ERA, 69.2 IP, 65 H [hittable], 29 BB, 28 K. His WAR is 0.2, not all that great. A guy walking as many as he does (0.97 K/BB ratio, really?) will surely start to get hit around – it’s only a matter of time. He hasn’t been all that effective, he’s just somehow found a way to win 5 games. That won’t keep up.

    Comment by Foster — June 12, 2009 @ 9:38 pm

  34. He’s going to win this. Look at his numbers vs. the Phillies and everyone else. He is 4-0 with an ERA of 3.88 against teams not named the Phillies

    Comment by pm — June 12, 2009 @ 9:45 pm

  35. I would say Ramus had a bit of lead right now. But if Gamel goes on an offensive tear, no one will care about his glove, well people will care but they will still vote for a player (Ryan Braun) if his offensive numbers are amazing. And Ramus is not a stud SS like Tulo, so his defense won’t give him as much as a boost in the minds of the voters.

    Comment by Craig — June 12, 2009 @ 10:45 pm

  36. What about Andrew McCutchen? He’s seemed to fit right in place since being called up. His first day in the Majors he went 2-for-4 with a walk and a SB, and his current stat line is .310/.326/.429 in 46 PA. He had a two triple game. He already has 5 RBI batting leadoff. Smaller sample size than the rest to be sure, but most projection systems have him stealing 20+ bases this year. That’s all it really took for Ellsbury.

    We can talk about UZR and the like, but the reality is that the people who do the voting for Rookie of the Year generally don’t know what those stats are or don’t care about them.

    Comment by Nate — June 13, 2009 @ 12:57 pm

  37. Nope-He had about 10 too many AB’s last year.

    It’s too bad for Pablo-if he was eligible, I think you’d have to consider him a candidate (favorite?) for this year’s ROY. .322/.364/.498, and he’s played 3 positions. His .864 OPS looks pretty tasty

    Comment by Greg — June 13, 2009 @ 2:22 pm

  38. Assuming, of course, that in Martis’ absence, Manny Acta would have simply pitched himself in those games.

    Comment by Kincaid — June 13, 2009 @ 2:29 pm

  39. I don’t think he should get it, but no mention of Happ at all?

    Comment by kb — June 13, 2009 @ 3:37 pm

  40. Neither was Edinson Volquez…

    Comment by Kincaid — June 14, 2009 @ 12:21 am

  41. He was in AAA ball, 2008 AAA ball he posted a .323/.426/.524 line, I don”t think that a .140 point split between avg and obp is quite his thing, but I think that a .300/.400/.500 line is perfectly within reach for him at his best, and a .280/.380/.450 is pretty likely.

    His increased walks don’t seem too fluky, he’s not seeing particularly more balls then can be explained by random luck. The biggest difference between his 08/09 lines is his O-swing% dropping from 28% to 15%, while still maintaining his contact rate and his Z-Swing% The sample size is of course small, but the data is encouraging.

    You’re right about his age, but I don’t think he has a whole lot of development left. I don’t think that Smith has a whole lot of growth left, but his power is there, well within the 15-20 homer range, and he’s shown solid contact skills, alongside a keen eye.

    Comment by Blue — June 14, 2009 @ 12:50 am

  42. NL ROY so far is casey mcgehee of the brewers.

    look it up

    Comment by frogger6 — July 3, 2009 @ 12:05 pm

  43. Happ gets absolutely no love? The guy is 5-0.

    Comment by Tim — July 3, 2009 @ 10:07 pm

  44. Does Jamie Moyer qualify for rookie of the year?

    Comment by beast — July 5, 2009 @ 12:32 pm

  45. brett wallace will be called up in the last week of september and still win the award.

    Comment by Sean — July 6, 2009 @ 12:42 pm

  46. are kidding me no garrett jones or andrew mcluthen. garrett jones was rookie of the month and has amazing stats . mclutchen has great stats too

    Comment by monica branan — August 25, 2009 @ 11:44 am

  47. If you check the recent stats on potential rookies of the year in the NL, one name is emerging, Chris Coughlin of The Florida Marlins. He is leading all rookies in batting average, had 46 hits in August aand has the highest on-base percentage of any other NL rookie. He also has made a great adjustment to play leftfield even though he is a natural infielder. He does all the little things: bunts well, steals when needed, makes the pitcher throw numerous pitches to him when at bat. Keep your eye on this young man.

    Comment by Ron Martin — September 3, 2009 @ 10:10 pm

  48. Looks like Chris Coughlin is stealing the NL rookie of the year. That Kids on fire fire. With multiple hits in each of his first three September games, the Marlins left fielder boasts a .435 average during his 11 game hit streak and an overall average of .304 average over 382 at-bats. It’s hard to believe he’s a rookie with so much patience and a real good eye for the ball. OBP is at .378 and do be surprised if he flirts with .400 OBP by the end of Sept.

    Comment by Freddy — September 4, 2009 @ 11:29 am

  49. Buster Posey will run away with the NL Rookie of the Year..I think it’s pretty obv

    Comment by Bob — September 5, 2010 @ 6:43 pm

  50. Solid article and definitely helps with becoming familiar with the subject much better.

    Comment by Kim Hanft — October 6, 2010 @ 9:44 am

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