FanGraphs Baseball

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  1. Both of yesterday’s HR’s were well struck – a liner to left-center, and an opposite field HR later on in the game. Aside from those two swings, you’re right. A lot of his recent hits are soft liners and ground balls. He’s just not ripping the ball like he used to. It’s weird though – his swing looks extremely quick, but he rarely hits the ball square on.

    I do wonder how much of it is in his head (I’m talking about pressure/expectations, not the concussion). As he regains confidence and starts to believe in his bat speed again, maybe he’ll make better contact.

    Comment by vivalajeter — July 6, 2011 @ 2:49 pm

  2. the chart is a little confusing because it’s comparing a half season to 2 full seasons so it at first looks like he lost like 75% of his batted balls to the outfield. perhaps it says something that i thought it was the same sample size at first and still wasn’t remotely surprised at the results

    Comment by juan pierre's mustache — July 6, 2011 @ 2:55 pm

  3. Higher GB% too.

    Comment by Neuter Your Dogma — July 6, 2011 @ 3:01 pm

  4. oof, only slugging .466 during this absurd hot streak…..so glad Boston didn’t re-sign him.

    Comment by Scott Clarkson — July 6, 2011 @ 3:50 pm

  5. That Old Bay crab cake is hilariously awesome.

    Comment by SiddFinch — July 6, 2011 @ 4:04 pm

  6. Problem with “examining” his hot streak would be you didn’t really frame it successfully. Since July 15th he’s hitting .347/.405/.542/.947. Or since June 21st he’s hitting .353/.431/.627/1.058. Of course, that doesn’t change that it’s aided with a high BABIP stretch (If anything though, that was probably a correction for his first 2 months), it also doesn’t change the fact that he hasn’t shown much power outside of those 4 home runs. But at this point, progress is progress.

    Comment by Derek — July 6, 2011 @ 4:26 pm

  7. “(If anything though, that was probably a correction for his first 2 months)”
    Unfortunately, that’s not how the law of averages works. Low BABIP before doesn’t mean he’s any more likely to be able to sustain a high BABIP later.

    Comment by saberbythebay — July 6, 2011 @ 4:51 pm

  8. bay – lackey trade would solve everything

    Comment by William — July 6, 2011 @ 10:32 pm

  9. We need a copy of his health chart that indicated he had failing knees. The Red Sox medical staff viewed Bay as a player who was inclined for multiple dl stints. There’s a major difference between a super healthy athletes such as Crawford inducing a hamstring strain from running the bases at Olympic speed compared to a degenerate/ongoing knee problem.

    Comment by Brian — July 7, 2011 @ 2:24 am

  10. Bay should have his bats tested. Might be a conspiracy to discourage teams from spending big on FA’s by making their bats are softer (MLB now certifies bat suppliers so they have clout). Look at Dunn, Bay, Figgins, Crawford, Manny, etc. Lots of money down the drain the past couple of years.

    Seriously, Bays approach at the plate looks nothing like it did when he was with Boston. When he hit HR’s they were bombs, in fact, he hit more HR on the road than at Fenway since the wall took away HR’s from him (balls that would have went 400 ft elsewhere).

    He looks smaller as well. Too bad weights for players are so unreliable to be worse than useless. He needs to spend more time in the weight room.

    Comment by pft — July 7, 2011 @ 2:29 am

  11. Jason Bay’s power should be in one of those “Wheres Waldo?” books

    Comment by Shaun Catron — July 7, 2011 @ 5:53 am

  12. The spray charts also show him not pulling the ball nearly as frequently, something I believe the Mets have stressed to their hitters (well, I know they did under Minaya, not sure about Alderson). That could also account for a power drain in a big way. You wonder how long it would take to go back to being a pull hitter after someone tinkered with you for an entire year (assuming that the current regime is just letting him do his thing).

    Comment by Ken — July 7, 2011 @ 11:02 am

  13. Thanks, Omar!

    Comment by Anon — July 7, 2011 @ 1:56 pm

  14. People thinking he’d have been this pathetic in Boston don’t get it. Not only did he change leagues and teams, but the ballpark isn’t conducive to hitting homeruns. Look at how few players are successful there(Fenway is a hitter’s paradise.) And Bay with his knees is more of a part time outfielder at this time. I thought he’d bring the Mets about 25 to 30 homeruns, and was completely wrong. But Boston has blown far too much money on the likes of Lackey when everyone knew he was done, Crawford(people knew he was overpaid and wouldn’t do as well), and brought in scrubs like Jenks. Bay would be a better option than Drew or Cameron as a fourth outfielder, occasional starter in left and obviously a DH against a lefty over Ortiz. His average and power have already started to decline after his hot start.

    Bay got overpaid, and considering the way he performed stepping in for a future hall of famer before he was busted for roids twice, he deserved it. He hadn’t gotten his payday yet. And the New York Mets aren’t the best at scouting talent, age and their potential decline or even signing people to fill in the parts they need.

    Comment by Kyle — July 7, 2011 @ 4:54 pm

  15. All this talk about Jason Bay’s knees and being more of a part-time outfielder, yet he’s been running well for the Mets and playing respectably in the big Citi Field outfield.

    Comment by Jon — July 8, 2011 @ 5:10 am

  16. The law of averages is a meaningless concept.

    What do you really mean?

    Comment by Brian Singer — July 9, 2011 @ 2:36 am

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