FanGraphs Baseball


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  1. Inge and Raburn should be on the all-flub team.

    Comment by McMahon — July 11, 2011 @ 2:40 pm

  2. Seems a bit unfair to put Mike Cameron on the NL squad, considering he’s put up his entire negative WAR as a member of the Red Sox. In four games as a Marlin, he’s put up a .708 OPS, which ain’t bad. Obviously that’s a miniscule sample size, but still.

    Comment by Ian R. — July 11, 2011 @ 2:40 pm

  3. HUFF!!!

    Comment by teenarcher — July 11, 2011 @ 2:41 pm

  4. No Scott Proctor?

    Comment by bsally — July 11, 2011 @ 2:41 pm

  5. So Pie gets benched for too few PA, I assume? Kind of weird that Morneau starts over Barton because he was worse in fewer PA (makes sense, pro-rates to a worse season), but that Pennington starts over Brignac because he was worse in more PA (makes sense, bigger sample of being worse suggests it’s less fluky, but completely opposite reasoning).

    As an O’s fan, I am very angry that we’ve been cheated out of Felix Pie’s well-deserved start. Very angry.

    Comment by Oscar — July 11, 2011 @ 2:42 pm

  6. The 2010 Twins are well represented with 5 players:
    Morneau, Hudson, Nathan, Rauch and Nesheck

    How’d that team win so many games?

    Comment by Chuck — July 11, 2011 @ 2:43 pm

  7. “- It was tough to choose a first baseman for the team, as both Morneau and Barton have been bad this season, but Morneau has managed to put up an equal WAR in less plate appearances, so I gave him the starting nod. And Reid Brignac has technically been worse than Cliff Pennington so far, but Brignac has less than 200 plate appearance, so he gets the bench spot.”

    You’re basically saying that Morneau has been terribad in fewer appearances than Barton so he gets a starting spot, but Brignac has been terribad in fewer appearances than Pennington so he gets a bench spot.

    Comment by Dash — July 11, 2011 @ 2:45 pm

  8. I wanted the Starters to be actual starters on their teams (or at least somewhat close), and then I gave the edge to whichever player I thought played worse. So that’s why there’s the PA discrepancy in a couple places. It’s a bit weird, but seemed to make sense in my head.

    Comment by Steve Slowinski — July 11, 2011 @ 2:45 pm

  9. And then the bench spots went to the next-worst players, and I tried to make it so that there was a somewhat even bench, position-wise. Although I didn’t include an backup catchers, so oh well.

    Comment by Steve Slowinski — July 11, 2011 @ 2:48 pm

  10. Seems almost cruel to put people on there that are coming off serious injuries. Morneau and Nathan are 2 good examples. Strictly by the methodology they qualify but I wouldn’t call either of those guys “bad”.

    Comment by Craig — July 11, 2011 @ 2:52 pm

  11. Ian Stewart has the same amount of negative WAR as Chris Johnson in almost one-fifth of the plate appearances. I get he’s had barely any playing time but was the presumed starter and stuff… Not saying he should have been included but he represents a pretty interesting case…

    Comment by Resolution — July 11, 2011 @ 3:01 pm

  12. What happens when Michael Dunn pitches to Adam Dunn?

    Comment by gdc — July 11, 2011 @ 3:07 pm

  13. I can’t believe Miguel Tejada missed the cut. Is this simply a matter of a TERRIBLE player getting too much playing time to qualify?

    Comment by Romodonkulous — July 11, 2011 @ 3:09 pm

  14. Dunno, but probably after the AB, one guy says “I Dunn it” and the other says “I’m Dunn.”

    Comment by Chris R — July 11, 2011 @ 3:12 pm

  15. Colvin is (and mainly has been) in the minors, he shouldn’t have made the roster.

    As for a replacement – Chris Coghlan seems deserving with his .288 wOBA, negative fielding value and counter-productive base-running over his 64 starts.

    Comment by Joe — July 11, 2011 @ 3:12 pm

  16. *oops, that shouldn’t have been a reply – sorry Chuck

    Comment by Joe — July 11, 2011 @ 3:13 pm

  17. Adam Dunn strikes out.

    Comment by Eriq Jaffe — July 11, 2011 @ 3:18 pm

  18. I like David Murphy, but it’s been hard to watch him at times this year. I’m always a bit mystified when he gets the start over Hamilton in left with either Chavez or Gentry in center. People around here do love him, though. He is a fabulously nice guy to fans, especially kids, and has a few memorable hits that seem to stick in people’s minds (opening day pinch hit double against Boston springs to mind).

    At least he’s the least bad position player on this team.

    Comment by Eric — July 11, 2011 @ 3:19 pm

  19. *oops did I pull that football away AGAIN?!? Sorry Chuck.

    Comment by Lucille Van Pelt — July 11, 2011 @ 3:24 pm

  20. Steve, hold up, I’ma let you finish but…

    Basically you’re saying that Morneau is worse in fewer appearances than Barton so he starts, but that Brignac has been worse in fewer appearances that Pennington so Pennington starts.

    …of all time!

    Comment by yaboynate — July 11, 2011 @ 3:30 pm

  21. what is really depressing is how many large contracts there seem to be on both teams, at least at first glance.

    And Jeff Mathis is about the least surprising choice of all time.

    Comment by williams .482 — July 11, 2011 @ 3:36 pm

  22. The worst pitcher on the Braves and worst in the league are radically different things.

    Comment by Deadpool — July 11, 2011 @ 3:41 pm

  23. How did John Lackey not make the AL rotation of suckitude?

    Comment by ddrezner — July 11, 2011 @ 3:48 pm

  24. To answer your question…

    Most of those players were solid regulars in 2010, with Morneau being otherworldly prior to his concussion. Nathan missed the whole year from TJ recovery, and Neshek was in the minors for most of the year as he was having trouble post-TJ as well.

    2010 Twins
    Morneau: 5.1 WAR (348 PA)
    Hudson: 3.4 WAR
    Rauch: 1.1 WAR

    Comment by Bryz — July 11, 2011 @ 3:57 pm

  25. Rookie of the freakin’ year.

    /Cutch fan, still bitter

    Comment by matt w — July 11, 2011 @ 4:03 pm

  26. Inexplicably, he has a positive WAR. He’s having an absolutely rotten year, but his peripherals indicate he should only be having a mediocre to pretty bad year.

    Comment by Jonathan — July 11, 2011 @ 4:08 pm

  27. East coast bias!

    Comment by Midwest Fan — July 11, 2011 @ 4:09 pm

  28. Matt Capps is wondering why Rauch gets the nod over him? I mean, they have the same WAR, right? After all, we all know he’s a proven closer, and Rauch isn’t. It isn’t Rauch’s fault he has a low WAR as a closer…….

    Comment by mike wants wins — July 11, 2011 @ 4:13 pm

  29. this is also the answer to any question reading “What happens when (person) (action verb) to Adam Dunn?”

    Comment by juan pierre's mustache — July 11, 2011 @ 4:19 pm

  30. Milton Bradley needs to be on the field, at least as a base coach. In fact, given his team history, maybe he can do his thing for both squads?

    Comment by joser — July 11, 2011 @ 4:22 pm

  31. Flubs also should factor in player salary for the year. If so, Jayson Werth needs to be included on this list.

    Comment by Neuter Your Dogma — July 11, 2011 @ 4:22 pm

  32. As a Mets fan I think lists like this show the biggest difference between the past and current regimes. Avoiding black holes on your roster goes a long way toward putting a semi competitive team on the field.

    Comment by brian — July 11, 2011 @ 4:30 pm

  33. So many past M’s — Ibanez, Betancourt, Hall, Franklin, Batista, Cameron, Valdez — when they’ve rotted through the floor of even the good ship Mariner, it’s good to know the NL all-flub team has a place for them.

    Of course there’s still Chone Figgins keeping the home fire burning (and so brightly, too); perhaps we’ll see him headlining the NL side of this list next year?

    Comment by joser — July 11, 2011 @ 4:30 pm

  34. Francisco should get the nod over Rauch. He’s been devastatingly atrocious in the closer’s role for the Jays. He’s accomplished more terribleness in fewer innings than Rauch with his 5.18 BB/9, 27.4% LD, 1.85 WHIP line.

    Comment by Blue Jays Fans Everywhere — July 11, 2011 @ 4:36 pm

  35. How is Chad Durbin not on this list? 6.51 ERA in 37.1 IP.

    Comment by Andrew Baker — July 11, 2011 @ 4:37 pm

  36. Similarly, Ordonez is being weighed down by the month and a half where he played hurt. Since coming off the DL, he has a wOBA over .350.

    Comment by buddy — July 11, 2011 @ 4:49 pm

  37. If we want the teams to be as bad as possible, shouldn’t Dunn and McGehee be starting in the field, with Morneau and C.Johnson moving to DH?

    I guess you could take that to an extreme, though, and say let’s have Dunn play shortstop, Navarro in CF, etc…

    Comment by jrogers — July 11, 2011 @ 4:58 pm

  38. Was about to post “No Mike Cameron????”

    and saw hes in the NL now.

    Comment by RC — July 11, 2011 @ 5:01 pm

  39. Who would win? You pick me a starting pitcher for each team and I will let you know.

    Comment by Xeifrank — July 11, 2011 @ 5:02 pm

  40. It’s not inexplicable, it shows what can happen when you ignore ~60-70% of all events a pitcher has and assume they equal out among everyone.

    It might be useful for predicting future performance, but is a terrible way to evaluate past performance.

    Comment by joe — July 11, 2011 @ 5:23 pm

  41. This! I’m a giants fan and was looking for tejada; but his hitting has been better lately (up to .257 wOBA!) and his defense has been good at 3B, almost enough to counter his suckiness at SS. I all adds up to -0.1 WAR, not really a serious threat to betancourt.

    Comment by brendan — July 11, 2011 @ 5:25 pm

  42. Proven closer? He’s more than that, he’s an ALL-STAR closer! (OK maybe he was filling the one per team quota)

    Wow how bad does that Ramos trade continue to look as time goes by….

    Comment by hank — July 11, 2011 @ 5:26 pm

  43. Peguero (-0.4 WAR) just needs a little more time as well.

    Comment by hank — July 11, 2011 @ 5:28 pm

  44. simulations-man to the rescue!

    How about O’Sulllivan vs. Galarraga in a battle of No 1 starters?

    Comment by brendan — July 11, 2011 @ 5:29 pm

  45. Dunn dunn dunn…

    Comment by Ben — July 11, 2011 @ 5:41 pm

  46. I’ll run it later this evening, after I pick up my free slurpy from 7-Eleven.

    Comment by Xeifrank — July 11, 2011 @ 5:52 pm

  47. How’d they win so many games? They have layed the White Sox 8 times. It is conceivable that the Twins could get 20% of their wins against the White Sox this year. Hell, the only thing keeping them from winning the division is not enough games against the White Sox.

    As a White Sox fan not only am I proud of our three Flub Stars, I am extra-special-proud of the 1064 PA the team has given those three this year.

    Comment by MikeS — July 11, 2011 @ 5:55 pm

  48. Jeff Mathis, Starting Catcher. My day is made.

    Comment by My echo and bunnymen (Dodgers Fan) — July 11, 2011 @ 6:47 pm

  49. The New York Mets:

    Semi-competitive since 2011!

    Comment by TK — July 11, 2011 @ 7:23 pm

  50. You’ve got Brunett instead of Burnett, unless you’re trying to give him points for hair color.

    Comment by JMN — July 11, 2011 @ 7:34 pm

  51. Bold prediction?

    Arroyo will be the first pitcher to leave this group and will actually post decent numbers. He’s the anti Dan Haren.

    Comment by John — July 11, 2011 @ 7:51 pm

  52. Damn Mr. Hall, you make me look serviceable.

    Comment by Dan Uggla — July 11, 2011 @ 8:36 pm

  53. How many times would I strike out in this game?

    Comment by Adam Dunn — July 11, 2011 @ 9:12 pm

  54. Not sure where you got the idea that Navarro was a “regular catcher”. Not even sure what you mean by that. He backed up Barajas, then got some playing time upon his injury, but lately has lost playing time to AJ Ellis.

    Comment by Chair — July 11, 2011 @ 10:18 pm

  55. So essentially you’re saying my White Sox are bad?

    Comment by Sox2727 — July 11, 2011 @ 10:54 pm

  56. Morneau was a 2010 All-Star selection (and deserved it), are there others?

    Comment by Barkey Walker — July 11, 2011 @ 10:56 pm

  57. So Mike Cameron has been a starter for almost a week now. But he’s an NL all-flub starter on the basis of the negative WAR he accumulated as an AL bench player? He’s really abusing your selection criteria.

    Comment by Greg — July 11, 2011 @ 11:19 pm

  58. Ok, I ran the two teams through my baseball simulator in a home and home series, where I ran a sim with each team as the away/home team. The American League team is slightly better according to my simulator, but not by much. Here are the results.

    When the NL team is the home team, they win 51.6% of the time. When the AL team is the home team, they win 57.0% of the time. Total runs for this game is around 9.7 runs on average.

    Here is the link to my blog, where I post more details including the average box score and a run distribution chart. Enjoy.
    vr, Xeifrank

    Comment by Xeifrank — July 12, 2011 @ 1:45 am

  59. You realize that totally makes you sound like this.

    Comment by joser — July 12, 2011 @ 2:37 am

  60. No, but my White Sox certainly are….

    Comment by Jerry Reinsdorf — July 12, 2011 @ 2:40 am

  61. wasn’t ryan franklin so terrible that he no longer has a team? would he show up to the game in street clothes?

    Comment by david — July 12, 2011 @ 2:56 am

  62. I think that is a natural effect of the method. WAR is a counting stat so even though some of these guys haven’t played a lot, most are still getting a lot of PA. If they were young and cheap they would be sent down. Most of them are big investments so the clubs have little choice but to let the players try to work themselves out of their bad years. For the White Sox, that’s certainly the case with Dunn and Rios. I can’t explain why Juan Pierre continues to be run out there although he has been less bad the last two or three weeks.

    Comment by MikeS — July 12, 2011 @ 7:04 am

  63. Joe, that makes no sense. If it’s good at predicting future events, that’s because it takes into account what pitchers have control over. This would also make it good for evaluating past performances, otherwise you’re giving credit or penalizing pitchers for things they couldn’t have done differently.

    So basically, you need to either argue that it sucks for both or shut up.

    Comment by Jeff — July 12, 2011 @ 7:51 am

  64. It was considered a historically poorly conceived trade from the get go, anything else to this point is basically people just nodding their heads and saying “see? What were you thinking?”

    Comment by Jonathan — July 12, 2011 @ 9:54 am

  65. Since Tejada has played 2B, SS and 3B, I think he should have made this team as worst utility player.
    Maybe he’s not on it, because the Giants already had 2 players or because of East Coast bias.

    Comment by GiantHusker — July 12, 2011 @ 11:56 am

  66. Fun article!

    Comment by GiantHusker — July 12, 2011 @ 12:03 pm

  67. All of the times.

    Comment by SP Ver2.0 — July 12, 2011 @ 1:13 pm

  68. He’d be the kid picked last at the sandlot.

    Comment by joser — July 12, 2011 @ 2:33 pm

  69. Yea. Proctor looks a lot worse than he really is because Braves fans are so used to Jair Jurrjens being a merely average pitcher but somehow putting up amazing numbers, Tommy Hanson being generally awesome, Kimbrel flinging filth, and Venters chucking bowling balls.

    I think Proctor also seems worse than he is because Gonzalez uses him (and the pen in general) very poorly.

    Comment by Antonio Bananas — July 12, 2011 @ 2:37 pm

  70. The Twins have been pretty good over the last month or so. I think they’ll be above .500 by the end of the season. They just started out so awful.

    Hack harrelson keeps me from rooting for the ChiSox at all. Unless they’re playing the BoSox or Yanks, I hope they lose every game.

    Comment by Antonio Bananas — July 12, 2011 @ 2:39 pm

  71. I agree with both, only I think it’s only a good predictor for SOME pitchers. Lackey just flat out sucks. I don’t care if your FIP is 0.01, if your ERA is like 7.00, and it’s been half a season, you have sucked.

    Comment by Antonio Bananas — July 12, 2011 @ 2:43 pm

  72. The fact that something is not predictive does not mean someone has no control over it.

    The fact that John Lackey probably will not continue to suck, does not mean he hasn’t sucked.

    Comment by RC — July 12, 2011 @ 2:45 pm

  73. Good thing they didn’t keep that Napoli loser.

    Comment by Jason B — July 12, 2011 @ 2:57 pm

  74. SO TRUE

    Comment by Templeton1979 — July 12, 2011 @ 3:24 pm

  75. Jeffypoo cannot be properly measured by this newfangled WAR.

    His gamecalling and grit ratings are off the charts.

    Comment by Mike Scioscia — July 12, 2011 @ 6:42 pm

  76. And Semi-bankrupt a little longer!

    Comment by joser — July 13, 2011 @ 4:06 am

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