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  1. I wonder if there is any causation between having a high density of pitches in the same approx speed range (ie 85% of his pitches are within an 8mph bracket (95-87), and 93% are within a 9mph range), and having a slightly higher BABIP. I know we don’t think there is much to “figuring out” BABIP for pitchers, DIPS theory and all that, but truthfully I think that it just comes from a lack of data. If hitters are sitting on a certain speed every pitch (even if it’s 95), you better have some serious movement, otherwise you’re going to get hit hard.

    Comment by Telo — July 14, 2011 @ 1:57 pm

  2. I will say, that a lot of guys are successful with an 8-9 MPH bracket of speeds, just spitballin.

    Comment by Telo — July 14, 2011 @ 1:58 pm

  3. Thank you, Eno, for being one of the few people on FG to grasp that BABIP is not luck driven in most cases. People knew for 100 years before advanced stats that no matter how many strike-outs you get, if you leave your pitches in the wrong location you’re going to get hit hard. FIP and xFIP (which are really no more useful than K/BB) are really only worth using to explain the tendencies of good pitchers who can locate. Flamethrowers who can pile up the strike-outs will post a high BABIP and Homers/Fly ball and therefore ERA if the balls hitters can catch up to are right in their wheelhouse. See Morrow, Brendan.

    Comment by Matt (L-G-M) — July 14, 2011 @ 2:28 pm

  4. I blame Quintero for his horrible performances in Houston. Humberto is one of the most over-rated defensive catchers in baseball. He literally sucks.

    Comment by NLeininger — July 14, 2011 @ 5:12 pm

  5. I think his pitch sequences must have changed. He never threw the slow curve in Colorado. With the Royals he’s throwing the FB much less and the curve roughly as much as he did in Houston. According to Pitch F/X data he’s also throwing a two seamer around 4% of the time, and only 46% on the four seamer. I’ve been surprised by him in the games I’ve watched. He throws that four seamer down the middle on the first pitch to get ahead and just dares them to hit it. I think Bob McClure has him using his pitches better than in the past. And let’s also not forget that he has had great runs before and always got hurt.

    Comment by Paul — July 14, 2011 @ 9:02 pm

  6. Great analysis. Thanks.

    Comment by J.D. — July 15, 2011 @ 12:28 am

  7. while there are certainly cases (and this is a good example) where BABiP is not all luck, it generally is. BABiP correlates really poorly from year to year, something that most “anti DIPS” people do not seem to acknowledge. As for your hypothetical example, this article http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/another-look-at-dips1/ is just one which shows that there is an inverse relationship between BABiP and K/9, or as K/9 goes up, BABiP goes down.

    Comment by williams .482 — July 15, 2011 @ 12:51 am

  8. I don’t follow the logic. If more hitters are getting on base through luck, then a pitcher would face more hitters overall and therefore his K/9 should go up and down with BABIP (positive correlation).

    Comment by bill — January 27, 2012 @ 2:00 pm

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