FanGraphs Baseball


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  1. Good analysis. I feel the same way. He was truly very good last year apart from a rough stretch in June or so when he seemed to have been pitching injured (though he bounced back). Cardinal fans are all over him this year, but they seem to forget how strong he was last year and how much a bargain he would have been this year if he just approximated that same level of performance.

    Comment by WY — June 16, 2009 @ 4:27 pm

  2. Other things to consider: Less vertical movement, more walks, a .06 higher BABIP, and a nearly identical FIP. Last year’s performance was most likely a result of a .273 BABIP and a somewhat high LOB%. This year Wellemeyer has a .333 BABIP and a slightly below average LOB%.

    Comment by DavidCEisen — June 16, 2009 @ 6:09 pm

  3. He’s never thrown more than 79 inning in his career and then he throws a career high 191 last season….hmmm.

    Comment by Brent — June 16, 2009 @ 7:45 pm

  4. Would like to see one done on Chris Young. His fastball velocity is way off as well. Am assuming is hiding some injury or his pitches are being mis-registered.

    Comment by Greg — June 16, 2009 @ 10:46 pm

  5. Some of those things could be at least partly the result of the decreased velocity. I realize this is anecdotal, but he just seems to be having a harder time putting away hitters this year. He has suffered a lot of bloop hits, I’ll admit.

    Still, I think the similarity in FIP says more about that stat than it does the similarity in his performances these last two years. It seems like the only reason the FIP is about the same is that he has allowed fewer homers. His K/BB ratio is much worse, and while he hasn’t given up a lot of homers, he is giving up a ton of hits. Some of that may be luck/chance (or poor defense), but not all of it. I don’t think so, at least.

    Comment by WY — June 17, 2009 @ 8:58 am

  6. Tonight aside, with how he’s pitched lately, we Cardinals fans were already worried. He’s made Joel Piniero look good this year, something I didn’t think was even possible.

    Comment by Matt — June 17, 2009 @ 11:18 pm

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