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  1. I think you can safely say 2010 “was just the Giants year”. Everything went right.

    Comment by Mike — July 15, 2011 @ 4:34 pm

  2. A perfectly sound, scientific explanation.

    Comment by Science! — July 15, 2011 @ 4:37 pm

  3. Aubrey Huff has been alternating good and bad seasons since 2004. It’s just that his bad seasons have gotten badder and his good season have gotten gooder. He’s finish this season with a .280 wOBA, but then he’ll bounce back next year with a .450 wOBA.

    Comment by Yirmiyahu — July 15, 2011 @ 4:45 pm

  4. It should also be noted that Huff has been more than a little unlucky with regards to his BABIP, both this year (.259, to date) and in 2009 (.260). In both ’08 & ’10, his BABIP was right around league average (.310 & .303, respectively) and he turned in fine seasons.

    Comment by Dan Out West — July 15, 2011 @ 4:51 pm

  5. It’s a description of what happened, not an explanation of why it happened.

    As for the explanation, let’s just say it has to do with Jobu and a chicken.

    Comment by Yirmiyahu — July 15, 2011 @ 4:53 pm

  6. My very scientific hypothesis is that it takes Huff about a year in a new town to find a bar and drinking buddies he likes.

    Comment by Bigmouth — July 15, 2011 @ 4:58 pm

  7. Burrel, his college drinking buddy joined the team around June 1st last year. Huff still had an OPS+ of 148 in June 2010 and had an OPS+ of 135 for the second half.

    Comment by JojoSchmobie — July 15, 2011 @ 5:10 pm

  8. May be a minor note, but he was having merely a poor offensive season in 2009 before the Tigers acquired him in mid-August. From that point on it was an unmitigated disaster.

    Call it small sample, regression, inability to adapt to DH, new environment, or whatever. Didn’t matter, it was a horror show. Detroit, as they often do, took big risks with two fluky players during the crunch of that pennant race and wound up catching the flipside on both.

    Comment by jklender — July 15, 2011 @ 5:28 pm

  9. He found Detroit’s right next to the airport.

    Comment by jklender — July 15, 2011 @ 5:32 pm

  10. “in 597 PA with Detroit”

    For what it’s worth, Huff only had 117 PA with Detroit. The rest were with Baltimore.

    Comment by RoyaleWithCheese — July 15, 2011 @ 5:34 pm

  11. It really drives you guys nuts if there is noise in a regression and prediction reduces to a coin flip.

    Comment by channelclemente — July 15, 2011 @ 6:40 pm

  12. Jojo, but they hadn’t yet found the right bar.

    Comment by Bigmouth — July 15, 2011 @ 6:42 pm

  13. I realize that even teams get caught up in the post-World Series hype, but re-signing him to a 2 year deal, especially w/ Brandon Belt on the way, was just crazy. Not that it’s anywhere near Sabean’s worst signing, but the second I heard it I knew it was a mistake.

    Comment by JohnnyComeLately — July 15, 2011 @ 6:43 pm

  14. Of course, at least they didn’t try to match the Dodgers and give Uribe 3 years at ridiculous money.

    Comment by JohnnyComeLately — July 15, 2011 @ 6:44 pm

  15. To be fair, nobody thought Brandon Belt would be this good this quickly. Even after his meteoric rise last season, he barely got any swings at AAA. And after he flopped in the majors at the beginning of this season, it’s clear he still needs to improve on his hitting.

    Comment by tynandaly — July 15, 2011 @ 6:54 pm

  16. Well, everything except for Pablo Sandoval hitting like Pedro Feliz and fielding like David Ortiz.

    Comment by Nick — July 15, 2011 @ 7:31 pm

  17. you said “gooder”

    Comment by ill booten gotty — July 15, 2011 @ 7:37 pm

  18. I’m hoping they call up belt to replace Huff, but there’s no guarantee he’ll be better. he’s totally unproven, and you have to be a darn good hitter just to be average at 1B.

    As for Huff’s WAR, he has -8.6 UZR in the OF this season (amazing, in only 113 innings!). If he had been at 1B the whole time, he’d be a lot closer to replacement level – Ha!

    Comment by brendan — July 15, 2011 @ 7:39 pm

  19. i woulda done that too. luckily for SFG fans, i’m not the GM.

    Comment by ill booten gotty — July 15, 2011 @ 7:40 pm

  20. The one big downside to winning the World Series last season for Giants fans is that Brian Sabean presumably bought himself another 4-5 years as GM for the organization. Somebody in that organization does seem to know a thing or two about drafting and developing pitchers, though, that’s for sure.

    Comment by Robbie G. — July 15, 2011 @ 8:47 pm

  21. Finally! An explanation for Jeff Francoeur’s career! He gets this done in a month or two!

    Comment by jwb — July 15, 2011 @ 8:51 pm

  22. I would’ve rather had Uribe and Belt than Huff and Tejada.

    Comment by dustygator — July 15, 2011 @ 9:29 pm

  23. That’s from M*A*S*H.

    Comment by psychump — July 15, 2011 @ 9:54 pm

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    Comment by zhongyko — July 15, 2011 @ 10:10 pm

  25. Yeah, but his low BABIP isn’t because of bad luck this year, it’s because of the insane amount of slow rolling ground balls he hits to 2nd and 1st. Those weren’t happening last year.

    Comment by EricR — July 15, 2011 @ 10:50 pm

  26. I bet it’s more like 8-9 years…

    Comment by K. Williams — July 15, 2011 @ 11:45 pm

  27. you’d like that wouldn’t you

    Comment by Alan — July 16, 2011 @ 1:24 am

  28. I like that you used a wallstreet term. Next semester I’m taking a sports economics class, a big part of that is a paper you write that has anything to do with sports/economics. I was thinking about a paper explaining stock principles using baseball to explain it. Like a stock rising or diving outside it’s bollinger bands being the equivelant of a team winning like 8 in a row when on paper it doesn’t look right. You know it’s going to tank. Or like how cold the Red Sox were to begin the season. Stuff like that. I really think there are a lot of commonalities you can use.

    As for the actual article you wrote. I liked it. I finally have fast enough internet that I can watch out of market games on the net.

    Comment by Antonio Bananas — July 16, 2011 @ 2:10 am

  29. It’s really more a Schrodinger’s cat bounce.

    Is Huff’s career alive or dead? Yes.

    Comment by Bhaakon — July 16, 2011 @ 2:51 am

  30. Good timing. David Pinto of Baseball just recently analyzed Huff and found that he has fallen into the habit of Chasing sinkers again, like in 2009. Meanwhile he is still crushing pitches higher in the zone. He wrote that Huff needs to stop swinging, and missing, the sinkers, which more pitchers are throwing him. That would force them to throw him more pitches up in the zone that he loves to hit, and can still hit.

    Comment by Obsessivegiantscompulsive — July 16, 2011 @ 4:54 am

  31. The Random Walk of Aubrey Huff’s career?

    Comment by Bigmouth — July 16, 2011 @ 11:26 am

  32. He could form a two year platoon cycle with Vernon Wells.

    Comment by sc2gg — July 16, 2011 @ 1:08 pm

  33. Maybe a bit more revealing analysis of Huff than Jobu can provide.

    Comment by channelclemente — July 16, 2011 @ 5:12 pm

  34. Reference his results against LHP. A clue to what his problem is.

    Comment by channelclemente — July 16, 2011 @ 5:14 pm


    Comment by channelclemente — July 16, 2011 @ 5:14 pm

  36. I was confused for a minute with your explination that a dead cat bounce was a “sharp decline off of a low” until i realised that you probably meant a sharp INCLINE off a low. Or am I still confused?

    Comment by adam smith — July 16, 2011 @ 8:59 pm

  37. most of his negative war is do to his time in right field where he compiled something like -9 runs in 90 or so innings. remove that and he’s about replacement level, not great but not as bad as it seems

    Comment by andy — July 16, 2011 @ 11:44 pm

  38. Off topic a bit, but here’s some NL news about some great offensive contributions by pitchers this season, especially lately:

    Daniel Hudson, in 44 plate appearances this season:

    .333 avg
    .351 obp
    7 sac hits while grounding into only 1 double play
    9 rbis

    Great contributions! Love to see pitchers having success at the plate, and there’s plenty of that this season:

    Kershaw 8 runs scored in 48 plate appearance despite having a weak all-around offense,

    Zambrano .303 average.

    Billingsley .467 slugging% in 37 plate appearances.

    Zach Duke 2hrs and 5 rbis in just 17 plate appearances with a .286 average!

    Tim Hudson has had 2 great starts lately in which he was dominant both on the mound and at the plate (one against the Blue Jays during Interleague play in which he shut them down in 8 innings and also hit a huge home run which drove in most of Atlanta’s rbis. Also went 2-3 with an rbi single, a double, and a run scored in the Braves’ 10,000th win on Friday.)

    John Lannan went 2-3 with a 2rbi single to help secure the win last night for the Nationals.

    Kyle Kendrick was 2-2 with a run scored today

    AND not to mention Cliff Lee drove in more rbis at the plate in a month than he allowed on the mound during that period. Talk about production! First time a pitcher has done that since Doc Gooden in ’85! Go National League!!

    Comment by Templeton1979 — July 17, 2011 @ 4:07 pm

  39. It bounced down some stairs

    Comment by Travis — July 17, 2011 @ 6:52 pm

  40. couldn’t agree more. a mediocre starting 8, who had career years. fine pitching though.

    Comment by kenneth — July 18, 2011 @ 1:28 am

  41. lincecum vs. the braves in the NLDS was complete domination. they all looked completely overmatched.

    Comment by Shaun Catron — July 18, 2011 @ 2:17 am

  42. Your Daniel Hudson figures are pre-ASB. After Sunday his line looks like this: .359/.375/.513 with 1 HR and 12 RBI! He now has as many RBI as the 2 pitchers tied for 2nd combined.

    Comment by James M. — July 18, 2011 @ 6:43 pm

  43. Bully to that, old boy! Huzzah!

    Comment by J.G. Piddlesworth — July 19, 2011 @ 9:07 pm

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