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  1. Luckily Tyler Colvin’s expectancy is for like a .190 wOBA when he’s hitting off a tee so there’s a pretty strict limit to how much damage he did himself.

    Comment by cpebbles — July 29, 2011 @ 9:33 pm

  2. This is a Cub fan’s version of optimism, I guess.

    Comment by Carson Cistulli — July 29, 2011 @ 9:35 pm

  3. *The exact numbers are probably different this season given the deflated run environment, but the point remains.

    well poke me in the butt, C.C. and wake me when it’s over.

    Comment by Steve-O — July 29, 2011 @ 9:45 pm

  4. During the Cardinals TV broadcast, before the first pitch of the at bat the commentator said “here is tyler colvin, and this is a player that won’t take a walk even when offered one” and then proceeded to swung at a 0-0 slider in the dirt. ouch.

    Comment by Rick Wizzle — July 29, 2011 @ 10:04 pm

  5. That was a horrible swing at a horrible pitch. I have to believe Colvin was sure it would curve back over the plate….for some reason…

    Comment by Devon Young — July 29, 2011 @ 10:37 pm

  6. Or already decided he was going to swing on the first pitch anyway, since Jackson would be trying to get ahead on 0-0 with the bases juiced. Probably thought a fastball down the middle was coming and for some reason, didn;t stop his swing when he noticed (if he noticed) that it wasn;t what he was looking for.

    I wonder how many young MLBers “predecide” to swing?

    Comment by CircleChange11 — July 29, 2011 @ 11:48 pm

  7. I kind of agree with circlechange. Anyways, he ended up working the count full and getting a sac fly RBI, with Soto out at third. So I guess whatever he lost, he gained a little back.

    Comment by Bryan — July 30, 2011 @ 12:51 am

  8. Isn’t this the epitome of small sample sizes?

    Comment by Chris — July 30, 2011 @ 12:57 am

  9. I wanted to make a joke about either your brain or wiener being the epitome of small sample sizes but then I couldn’t decide which organ to use as the object of ridicule so I just decided to type what I was thinking instead. Chris.

    Comment by Nick #2 — July 30, 2011 @ 1:06 am

  10. I think it was to illustrate the importance of the count, namely in getting ahead/behind. Colvin could have been in an even better position of being ahead 1-0 with the bases juiced … rather than giving away his advantage by chasing a pitch way out of the strikezone.

    From a coach’s standpoint, I want to ask Colvin just what he thought he was going to do with that pitch anyway. Foul it off your foot?

    Comment by CircleChange11 — July 30, 2011 @ 1:25 am

  11. Yeah, it was an awful pitch and proof that Colvin lacks plate discipline, but the AB ended with a run scoring and no matter what other outcome could have happened had he not swung at that pitch, the 4 potential runs that could have scored wouldn’t have been enough to overcome the Cards 9 runs.

    Is wOBA of a count based on league averages and not player’s averages really the proper way to analyze the value of a player?

    Comment by Chris — July 30, 2011 @ 1:37 am

  12. Honestly, I feel the same way about wOBA in general (player vs. leaguewide). I can’t imagine that a walk to Dunn and a walk to Gardner (given their baserunning skills, batting slot, and strength of lineup) are both 0.7 runs. Yet, we reward them the same.

    I am not familiar enough to know if there is a stat that combines some form of wOBA with WPA and the like.

    I’m not the biggest fan of “leaguewide” data being applied to individual players, especially when players have different skills, different lineups, etc. But, that’s probably the best we have, and I haven’t researched individual wOBA to see if it adds up to a substancial amount in the end anyway.

    Comment by CircleChange11 — July 30, 2011 @ 2:14 am

  13. I know that wOBA is intended to be context neutral, as to what a player might do in an average lineup, as to not reward/punish a player for things they cannot control (batting slot, strength of lineup, etc). So when I talk of not appreciating that aspect of wOBA, I’m really wondering if there’s a “type” of wOBA that would consider those type of things and come up with different run values based o indivial players/teams.

    Comment by CircleChange11 — July 30, 2011 @ 2:15 am

  14. what’s the big deal, Shane Victorino does this all the time. sigh.

    Comment by Pop Tones — July 30, 2011 @ 2:37 am

  15. it was a toolsy whiff, at least.

    Comment by ezb230 — July 30, 2011 @ 5:44 am

  16. I think it was intended to be more food for thought than a player evaluation… They did score a run that inning, but that was less than the 2.28 run expectancy for the situation.

    Comment by James — July 30, 2011 @ 11:55 am

  17. This fails to realize that he was batting eighth, so obviously the pitcher was up next. In addition Matt Garza is one of the worst hitting pitchers in the league. Can’t believe 2.28 runs would be the expectancy here.

    Comment by Scott — July 30, 2011 @ 2:50 pm

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